In Week 6 the Chiefs, Dolphins, Rams, and Vikings are all on bye. The timing couldn't have been better for De'Von Achane and Aaron Jones, who both left their Week 5 games with injuries. But Kareem Hunt may feel differently, he was just heating up.
Hunt carried the ball 27 times for 102 yards on Monday night against the Saints and scored 18.7 PPR Fantasy points. While he was on the waiver in most leagues just two weeks ago, he now looks like a must-start running back who must be held through his bye week. There's a good chance we get a full month of Hunt as a starting running back in Fantasy before Isiah Pacheco returns.
With my first place teams this is the time of the year I like to go shopping on the bad teams for bye week or injured running backs that I can afford to stash until later in the year. Hunt doesn't exactly fit that profile because he has competition on the way and we don't expect him to be a starter in the Fantasy playoffs. But Achane, Jones, and Kyren Williams certainly fit the bill. Offer seventy-five cents on the dollar, help a struggling team win this week, and turn a profit when those backs return. Other backs I would be targeting with this strategy are Jonathan Brooks, Nick Chubb, Christian McCaffrey, and Jonathan Taylor. It might not hurt to kick the tires on Breece Hall or Bijan Robinson, just make sure you're buying low.
You'll find my projections for every running back on the slate over on Sportsline.
Now, let's get to the rest of the Week 6 RB Preview:
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Chase Brown is a must-start back without Moss. If Moss plays, we'd still rather start Brown.
RB Preview
Numbers to know
40%-- Tank Bigsby played a season-high 40% of the offensive snaps in Week 5 but Doug Pederson said Travis Etienne's shouldwee had a lot to do with that.
4.54 -- Antonio Gibson is averaging 4.54 yards after contact per rush. That ranks second behind Tank Bigsby.
5.6 -- Chase Brown has averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Teammate Zack Moss is averaging 3.7 for the season.
9 -- Kyren Williams and Derrick Henry both have nine rush attempts inside the five-yard line. Brian Robinson is the only other back with more than six.
21.5% -- Alvin Kamara has a 21.5% target share, no other back is above 16%.
.05 -- Breece Hall is averaging less than a tenth of a yard before contact per rush. Only Tony Pollard has a lower mark.
We don't know for sure if Devin Singletary will be back in Week 6, but I'm not sure it should matter. Tracy was electric in Week 5 against Seattle, averaging 7.2 yards per carry. If Singletary is out, we'll view Tracy as a good number two running back in a great matchup against the Bengals. If Singletary returns we'll view both backs as flexes with the expectation that Tracy's role is larger than it was before Singletary's injury.
There should be no doubt that Bigsby is a must-add running back, but I was more excited about before I heard Doug Pederson talk. Travis Etienne is still very much the starter in Jacksonville and Bigsby is going to have to earn his touches on a weekly basis. I also don't believe there's much Bigsby can do to earn the work in the passing game, which is going to limit his upside in full PPR. He's a flex unless Etienne misses time.
Spears scored double-digit PPR Fantasy points in each of his last two games before the Titans Week 5 bye. In Week 6 they face a Colts defense that has surrendered the fourth-most rushing yards to opposing running backs. View Spears like Bigsby, as a weekly flex with contingent upside if Tony Pollard misses time.
We don't know when Jaylen Warren is coming back, but Najee Harris is not getting it done as a rusher and there's a chance Warren gets a chance at more touches when he's 100%. There's also a chance Russell Wilson takes over at quarterback by then which creates more running back targets.
Brown has the third-highest explosive run rate in the NFL at 17.1% and 47.4% of his rushes have gone for at least five yards. He should probably be the lead back even if Moss is recovered from his ankle injury. Brown will be more of a contrarian play if Moss plays, and the chalk if Moss is out. I want him in my lineup either way.
Gibson is a great contrarian play if Rhamondre Stevenson is able to play in Week 6. If now, Gibson and Brown form a superb tandem as a cheap backfield that you can stack star wide receivers around. The Texans have a good defense, but they have given up a touchdown to a back in four of five games this season.
RB Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 6 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 6. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
