There were some huge performances in Week 11, but you might not have noticed if all you did was look at your Fantasy lineups. Because there were a lot of ... well, wasted points on Sunday. You had Jacoby Brissett, Andy Dalton, and Daniel Jones as top-five QBs; Samaje Perine as the No. 2 RB; and Josh Palmer, DeMarcus Robinson, Wan'Dale Robinson, and Treylon Burks as top-12 WRs. If you had more than one of those guys in your lineup this week, you were probably more desperate than prescient.
Some of those performances took us by surprise; some we might have been able to see coming; and some genuinely came out of nowhere. It was just one of those weeks, and this newsletter is my attempt to make sense of as much of it as I can.
Before we get to that, I wrote about the injuries you need to know about and the top early waiver-wire targets for Week 12 last night. Tomorrow, we'll have a full breakdown of the waiver wire plus my rankings for Week 12, but for now, he's a look back at everything you need to know from Week 11:
Week 11 Recap
Titans 27-Packers 17
Winner: Treylon Burks. In his second game back from IR, Burks looked like the star the Titans were hoping he would be when they selected him in the first round. He caught six passes for 60 yards in the first half and then got open down the field late for a 51-yard catch to bring his total to 111 on seven catches. He was still third on the team in routes run at WR, but with 21, compared to 27 for Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Robert Woods, he's narrowing the gap. He has significant upside for the stretch run.
Loser: Aaron Jones. To be clear, I don't really think there's much to be concerned about here -- Jones only had 40 yards on 12 carries, but he was second on the team with seven targets, turning them into six catches for 20 yards. That's a decent enough game in leagues where catches count, and he's been awesome in two of the previous three, so I have no concerns here -- beyond my general concerns about the Packers offense, which seems doomed to mediocrity.
One more thing: Christian Watson came through with two touchdowns if you started him, but I didn't think this was an especially promising game. To be clear, it was fine, but he tied with Randall Cobb for third on the team in targets with six, and he turned them into four catches for 48 yards. Again, two touchdowns, so who's complaining? But there was some hope he might have earned Aaron Rodgers' trust as his go-to receiver, but Allen Lazard had five more targets than Watson in this one. I think Watson is likely to be a Gabe Davis-esque enigma, a high-upside, low-floor WR3 who you'll probably want to ride the ups and downs with. Lazard was still Rodgers' go-to target, and he was very close to a big game if Rodgers had been a bit more on-target. He's a nice buy-low candidate as Watson appears to be ascending.
Falcons 27-Bears 24
Injuries: Justin Fields (shoulder/hamstring) -- Fields was limited by the hamstring injury for much of the second half, but it looks like the injury to his non-throwing shoulder is the bigger concern. And, with the Bears set for their bye in Week 14, a multi-week absence seems entirely possible, unfortunately ... Kyle Pitts (knee) -- According to reports, Pitts avoided a serious injury, though we still need further testing to confirm that. Given the nature of the injury, I'd be pretty surprised if Pitts played this week, but he may not be done for the season, at least.
Winner: David Montgomery. As expected, Montgomery dominated snaps with Khalil Herbert sidelined, playing 52 of 66 snaps. Trestan Ebner got just six carries and had 8 yards on them, so I don't think there's much risk of this turning into a timeshare. Montgomery got 17 carries and four targets, and while losing Fields would be bad news for this offense, he might be in line for a bigger passing game role if Trevor Siemian has to start in Week 12. Montgomery is looking like a top-15 RB with Herbert on IR.
Loser: Cole Kmet. The problem with Kmet's apparent breakout over the past few weeks was that it was pretty touchdown dependent, with just one game of more than 45 yards all season (and only four with even 40. He was obviously never going to keep scoring a touchdown every week, and he didn't Sunday, finishing with three catches for 35 yards on four targets. Kmet could also benefit if Fields has to miss some time, just because the Bears are probably going to have to throw more. Still, he's probably just a TD-dependent, low-end TE1.
One more thing: Cordarrelle Patterson played more than half the Falcons snaps for the first time since Week 3, but it was only one snap more than half, not the 60%-plus snap share he had the first three games of the season. The Falcons are probably going to be pretty careful with his usage, so 10-15 carries should be your expectation most weeks, with very little passing game usage. It makes Patterson a touchdown-dependent RB3 moving forward, in my eyes.
Ravens 13-Panthers 3
Winner: DeMarcus Robinson. I don't think Robinson's massive, nine-catch, 128-yard performance Sunday is a sign of things to come or anything, but he's been arguably the team's best pass-catcher in two of the past three games, and with Rashod Bateman on IR, Lamar Jackson desperately needs someone to step up. Robinson belongs in the WR4 discussion -- such are the meager joys of this game.
Loser: D.J. Moore. Or D'Onta Foreman. Or Kenyan Drake. There really wasn't much to like about this game, but Moore's struggles with Baker Mayfield at QB continued. Mayfield has started and played most of six games, and Moore doesn't have more than 60 yards in any of them. Mayfield has just been putrid this season, and you can't trust Moore as anything but a low-end WR3 as long as he's starting.
One more thing: Drake played 68% of the snaps and got 24 carries in the Ravens last game before the bye week, but that was a major outlier in terms of RB usage for the Ravens -- it was just the fourth game an RB has had more than 20 carries in the past five seasons. Sunday, Drake's snap share fell to 50% and he got 10 carries -- Justice Hill had seven. That kind of split is more like what I expect moving forward, no matter who the lead back is.
Bills 31-Browns 23
Winner: Amari Cooper. Cooper's struggles on the road have been a big topic of discussion this week, but that wasn't an issue this time. Maybe it's because it was a neutral site game ... or maybe there just wasn't much to that narrative. Cooper has, historically, been a pretty hit-or-miss wide receiver, and he's playing with a mediocre quarterback, so consistency is probably going to be an issue for him moving forward. But the highs have been so stunningly high -- 12-8-113-2 this time around -- that you probably just need to leave him in your lineup every week. The same may be true of Donovan Peoples-Jones (6-5-61-1 this week), too.
Loser: Kareem Hunt. Fantasy analysts seem to just put Hunt in as an RB3 by default, but that's giving him more credit than he deserves at this point -- he's RB40 in points per game, with just three double-digit PPR games all season. He's just a handcuff for Nick Chubb at this point.
One more thing: Devin Singletary's had two good Fantasy games in a row, but I'll admit, it feels kind of like fool's gold. He had no touchdowns in the first eight games, and while that was always unsustainable, his three scores in the past two are as well. He did rush for 86 yards on 18 carries Sunday, but that was in a game where the Bills running backs combined for 30 carries -- his 60% share this week wasn't far off from his 64% rate for the season. He's a fine starter, but I don't mind trying to sell high, either.
Commanders 23-Texans 10
Winner: Antonio Gibson. Gibson got 18 carries and three targets Sunday compared to just 15 carries and no targets for Robinson, who played 23 snaps to Gibson's 45. That's the kind of usage I was hoping to see from Gibson when J.D. McKissic went down, but he had been a secondary back each of the previous two weeks, which makes it hard to know whether this will stick. However, Gibson is the more talented of the two backs, so maybe it'll stick. I still view him as a solid RB2.
Loser: Brandin Cooks. Cooks is still rostered in 81% of CBS Fantasy leagues, and while I don't want to totally bury him, it's time to let go. Cooks had one big gain to get to 70 yards, but still had just three catches on six targets, and he hasn't caught more than four passes in a game since Week 4. He just isn't dominating targets the way he once did, and on this offense, that makes him a fringe option. I'd rather start Donovan Peoples-Jones at this point.
One more thing: Things finally went really wrong for Dameon Pierce and we saw his floor Sunday, as he had just 17 yards and 3.7 PPR points. That was a hugely disappointing outcome after he had at least 13.9 PPR points in his previous four games while scoring a touchdown just once. Still, given how good he's been he's allowed one down week. Let's just hope this offense doesn't start dragging him down with it.
Eagles 17-Colts 16
Winner: Devonta Smith. With no Dallas Goedert, Smith got nine targets to lead the team. He won't necessarily be the No. 1 option in this offense every week, it makes some sense to think that he would benefit from Goedert's absence -- A.J. Brown is a target hog no matter what, but Smith probably benefits from a bit less competition. It's just one game, this was a very promising first game in this new reality for a guy who has been too inconsistent this season.
Loser: Miles Sanders. The past two weeks have represented the downside to Sanders' touchdown-dependent usage this season. He's on a great offense, but with almost no passing game role, his chances of reaching double digits in Fantasy points are almost entirely tied to his chances of reaching the end zone. He (probably) won't be held out of the end zone every week, but he's going to be pretty mediocre when he is.
One more thing: Besides Smith seeing a few more targets, there really wasn't any sign that Goedert's absence was going to be good news for anyone here. Jack Stoll was the only tight end to see a target for the Eagles, and he got exactly one while running a route on 21 of 30 pass snaps. I don't think anyone but Brown or Smith is likely to matter in this passing game.
Patriots 10-Jets 3
Winner: No. Pass.
Oh, come on, I'm sure someone qualifies as a winner: The Patriots won 10-3 with a punt return touchdown. Rhamondre Stevenson had a solid 14.2 PPR points despite averaging just 1.73 yards per carry, which is pretty good. He's pretty matchup and game-script-proof. There, I said something positive about this game.
Loser: The whole Jets offense. I mean, both offenses, clearly, but specifically the Jets. Zach Wilson was 9 for 22 for 77 yards. The team rushed for 59 yards on 23 carries. The Patriots are a great defense, but this offense is a disaster, and only Breece Hall's individual brilliance covered up for that. Unless Wilson takes a massive step forward as a passer, this might be an offense we're better off just ignoring.
One more thing: The only player I might lose even a wink of sleep over in this Jets offense is Garrett Wilson, who had been pretty tremendous in two games prior to Sunday. He's clearly a very talented player, talented enough to overcome his poor surroundings, though probably not consistently enough to be more than a WR3 moving forward.
Saints 27-Rams 20
Injuries: Matthew Stafford (concussion protocol) -- It's not clear if Stafford actually suffered a concussion Sunday, but he was removed after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit, and coach Sean McVay told reporters after the game, "We need to make a smart decision for Matthew." I think there's a decent chance we see Bryce Perkins start some games for the Rams.
Winner: Chris Olave. There have been some duds sprinkled in, but Olave remains too productive to consider sitting even when things get frustrating. He sprinted past Jalen Ramsey on the way to his big 53-yard touchdown Sunday, and put together his third 100-yard game as a rookie. The Saints spread their 28 targets around Sunday, but Olave still led the way with six of them, and he's still the clear No. 1 even with Juwan Johnson emerging and Jarvis Landry healthy. His big-play ability makes him a must-start player.
Loser: Darrell Henderson. I think the Rams are clearly just trying things out right now, and maybe it was just Henderson's week to draw the short straw. He carried the ball on the Rams first two plays and then had just two more snaps the rest of the way, while Cam Akers and Kyren Williams split snaps the rest of the way. Williams is probably the more interesting option of the two, as he led the team in RB snaps and has some solid pass-catching skills, but the Rams offense hasn't been good enough to be worth getting excited about -- especially if the more mobile Perkins starts in Week 12. He won't likely dump off much if he's starting.
One more thing: Tutu Atwell hit on a big play on his only target, while Allen Robinson, Tyler Higbee, and Van Jefferson all had between 41 and 47 yards. Higbee had a team-high eight targets while Robinson found the end zone, and if you have to use someone from this passing game, those are your only bets worth making. And they are just low-end starters at best even without Cooper Kupp.
Lions 31-Giants 18
Injuries: Wan'Dale Robinson (knee) -- On Monday morning, Giants coach Brian Daboll confirmed Robinson suffered a torn ACL, and the timing here is just the worst -- Robinson had the breakout game we've been waiting for, catching nine passes for 100 yards on 13 targets.
Winner: Darius Slayton. For this Giants offense, throwing 44 times is never going to be their ideal game plan, but it's not a bad outcome for Slayton, who continues to be one of the most pleasant surprises around. He had his fourth straight double-digit PPR performance Sunday, and with Robinson's injury, he's probably going to rank among the top 36 WR for Week 12.
Loser: D'Andre Swift. Swift salvaged his game if you started him with a late touchdown, but this was not a positive outcome overall. Swift played 32% of the snaps Sunday, which was actually fewer than Justin Jackson, let alone Jamaal Williams. Swift's pass-catching and big-play ability will keep him relevant, but his usage at this point basically makes him touchdown-or-bust.
One more thing: Jamaal Williams scored another three touchdowns Sunday on three carries from inside the 10-yard line, bringing him to 10 touchdowns on 25 carries inside the 10. That's a pretty remarkable success rate -- Joe Mixon, for one, is just 6 for 25 this season -- but it actually isn't that much of an outlier, relatively speaking; Derrick Henry is 8 for 12, for example. Williams probably won't keep scoring on 40% of his carries from inside the 10 when the league average is 32%, but the fact that the Lions give him so many opportunities so consistently makes him pretty hard to go away from.
Raiders 22-Broncos 16
Winner: Melvin Gordon. Something that has gone a bit under the radar in recent weeks is Gordon's emergence as the go-to pass-catching back for the Broncos. Since Mike Boon's injury in Week 7, Gordon has 14 catches on 19 targets, helping make up for the fact that he's on the small side of a platoon with Latavius Murray on the ground. This isn't a great offense, but Gordon's passing game has helped keep him relevant.
Loser: Greg Dulcich. Dulcich stormed onto the scene with double-digit PPR points in his first three games, but he was doing so with a hard-to-sustain 71% catch rate while seeing primarily downfield targets. Either Dulcich was going to be one of the best tight ends in Fantasy or something had to give. Well, he caught just one of four targets in Week 10 and then caught four of five but for just 30 yards Sunday. He's still playing a ton of snaps and seeing a decent target share, but I think we can safely declare that Dulcich isn't one of the best tight ends in Fantasy. He's just another streamer, though with enough upside to still become more than that if he develops right.
One more thing: Davante Adams is on some kind of run. Since his one-catch Week 8, Adams has at least 126 yards in each game, with five touchdowns on 44 targets. The Raiders are responding to the losses of Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow by just peppering Adams with targets, and he's one of the only wide receivers in the NFL who could realistically sustain a 33% target share while seeing a bunch of downfield targets. He's on pace for the second-best Fantasy season of his career.
Cowboys 40-Vikings 3
Winner: Tony Pollard. I'm glad we got that report prior to kickoff that the Cowboys would likely still use Pollard as their lead back even with Ezekiel Elliott coming back from his knee injury because it convinced me not to move him further down my rankings. Of course, I still had Pollard too low as a fringe RB1, as he finished as the No. 1 RB, on the strength of another efficient rushing game (80 yards on 15 carries), but especially with some huge plays in the passing game. Pollard racked up 109 receiving yards on six catches, scoring from 30 and 68 yards. And there was still room for Elliott to be a top-12 RB with two short touchdowns. In an ideal world, this would be how the Cowboys used their duo moving forward. I don't necessarily think they will, but I'd love to see it.
Loser: Justin Jefferson. The Vikings threw in the towel by the start of the fourth quarter, so we probably can't take too much from this one. It was never close. Still, given that we learned before the game that Jefferson is playing with a turf toe injury, I can't say I have zero concern about his quiet game. Jefferson still played every snap before the Vikings benched the starters, so it didn't limit him in that regard, but it's still something I'll keep an eye on next week.
One more thing: Despite the early hook for the starters, T.J. Hockenson still had nine targets, his third straight game with at least that many since joining the Vikings. He has a 24.8% target share from Kirk Cousins, and should be viewed as an absolute must-start Fantasy TE at this point.
Bengals 37-Steelers 30
Injuries: Joe Mixon (concussion) -- Mixon exited the game in the second quarter, with Samaje Perine filling in for him. Perine will be a top-20 RB if Mixon has to miss any time, and it's worth noting, Mixon did miss two games during his rookie season after a concussion ... Jaylen Warren (hamstring) -- Najee Harris played 93% of the snaps in light of Warren's injury, and given that he's actually showed some signs of life over the past few weeks, should be viewed as an RB2 if Warren has to miss time.
Winner: Joe Burrow. It feels like Burrow exorcised some demons in this one, throwing four touchdowns against a Steelers team that gave him all kinds of fits in Week 1. He did so without Ja'Marr Chase, as Tee Higgins stepped up as the lead target, catching nine of 13 passes for 148 yards. Burrow showed he still has plenty of upside even without Chase -- and he might get Chase back next week.
Loser: Diontae Johnson. For a while, at least Johnson was still earning a ton of targets, even if he wasn't doing much with them. However, he has just 10 targets over his past two games, a very atypically low 13.9% target share. The concern here was always that the targets would dry up if he didn't start to do more with them, and it looks like that might be what is happening, as Pat Freiermuth and George Pickens continue to expand their roles. Johnson is just a WR3 for Week 12 until he proves he can get back to earning targets at a much higher rate.
One more thing: Speaking of Pickens, he continued to impress, catching four of six passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. But he could have had an even bigger game, as he dropped what should have been a walk-in, 49-yard touchdown late in the game. Pickens' 14.3% target share still leaves something to be desired, but his big-play ability can't be questioned. He's a boom-or-bust WR3 with plenty of boom potential.
Chiefs 30-Chargers 27
Injuries: Mike Williams (ankle) -- Williams hurried back from his high-ankle sprain after three weeks, and it wasn't enough. He aggravated the injury making a catch early, and though he tried to gut it out, he was ultimately unable to return. Don't be surprised if this ends up being another multi-week issue, unfortunately ... Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) -- Edwards-Helaire has a high-ankle sprain, which will likely cost him multiple weeks. A tough break, but it provides some clarity on the Chiefs backfield and makes both Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon viable RB3 candidates ... Kadarius Toney (hamstring) -- Toney's hamstring tightened up on him fairly early on in this one, and he ended up with just one target and no catches in a game where he was 80% started in CBS Fantasy leagues. That's rough, and given his history, there's no guarantee he'll be back for Week 12.
Winner: Justin Herbert. It's little surprise that Herbert had his best game in months with his weapons back to something like full health. Keenan Allen and Williams are so key to what this Chargers offense does, and even with Williams leaving the game early, you could see how much more aggressive Herbert was able to be. He should be a must-start QB moving forward.
Loser: Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Even with seemingly every wide receiver around him injured, Valdes-Scantling was a non-factor in this one, catching one pass for 18 yards on four targets. Valdes-Scantling doesn't have more than four targets in a game since Week 8, but he was still started in 53% of CBS Fantasy leagues in Week 11. That's too much for a guy who has never been more than a big-play, touchdown-or-bust receiver. He might not be rostered in 53% of leagues by next week.
One more thing: In our #AskFFT stream Sunday morning, I said I'd have Palmer as a top-24 wide receiver if either one of Williams or Allen were out, but I moved him down to the fringe WR36 range when both were active. Palmer made that look pretty silly when he hit on a 50-yard touchdown on the Chargers first drive of the game, so I can't even use the Williams injury as an excuse. Palmer has consistently surprised me this season, and he'll be in that WR2 discussion if Williams is out moving forward.
