For the first time since 1981 and for a record 12th time overall, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees will meet in the World Series this year. This is the first time since the Dodgers and Rays in 2020 that the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the Fall Classic. If you prefer 162-game seasons, No. 1 seeds haven't met since the Cardinals and Red Sox in 2013.
A World Series matchup between the Dodgers and Yankees offers plenty of star power, plenty of history, plenty of intrigue, and plenty of happy network executives. You needn't worry about those folks though. Here now are five bold predictions for the 2023 World Series. Come with me, won't you?
1. There will be a Reggie repeat
Dodgers vs. Yankees have given baseball some of its most iconic World Series moments. Jackie Robinson stealing home in Game 1 in 1955. Don Larsen throwing a perfect game in Game 5 in 1956. And, of course, Reggie Jackson hitting three home runs in the Game 6 clincher in 1977. Go back to Game 5, and Mr. October hit four homers in four straight at-bats against four different pitchers (Don Sutton, Burt Hooton, Elias Sosa, Charlie Hough).
Our first World Series bold prediction calls for a Reggie repeat, meaning three homers against three different pitchers in a single game. There have been five three-homer games in World Series history: Babe Ruth (1926 Game 4, 1928 Game 5), Reggie (1977 Game 6), Albert Pujols (2011 Game 3), and Pablo Sandoval (2012 Game 1). Only Reggie and Pujols hit their three homers off three different pitchers though. Pujols got Alexi Ogando, Mike Gonzalez, and Darren Oliver.
The three pitchers are the least bold part of this prediction. That's just the way pitching staffs are used these days. But hitting three home runs in a game is decidedly not easy, and doing it again three different pitchers ups the difficulty. We're going to leave the who part open-ended -- Juan Soto seems like as good as bet as anyone, he's got some Reggie in him -- but that's our first World Series bold prediction. Someone hits three homers against three different pitchers in a single game.
2. A starter will complete eight innings
There have been 38 games this postseason (76 team games) and only eight times has a starter completed seven innings. That was Orioles ace Corbin Burnes against the Royals in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series. He went eight innings. That made Burnes the first pitcher to complete eight innings in a postseason game since 2021, when Astros lefty Framber Valdez went eight innings against the Red Sox in ALCS Game 5.
No pitcher has completed eight innings in a World Series game since Stephen Strasburg saved the Nationals' season with 8 1/3 brilliant innings in Houston in Game 6 of the 2019 Fall Classic. Heck, Diamondbacks righty Merrill Kelly is the only starter to complete even seven innings in a World Series game since Strasburg. He did it in Game 2 against the Rangers last year.
Relievers (347 ⅓) have thrown more innings than starters (323) this postseason and I don't see that changing in the World Series. That's what makes our second bold prediction bold. We're predicting a starter will complete eight innings in a World Series game for the first time since Strasburg. We're overdue. Plus, aren't bullpen games kind of lame? I understand the strategy -- teams do bullpen games because they work! -- but I think baseball is better when starting pitchers are the main characters.
Gerrit Cole, the reigning AL Cy Young winner, is the obvious candidate to go eight innings in the World Series, so we'll say it will be someone else. How's Jack Flaherty sound? He went seven innings in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Mets. Eight innings isn't too far out of reach. No matter who it is, completing eight innings against one of these offenses will take a minor miracle. They work the count and wear down pitchers like few other teams.
3. There will be a record number of walks
On that note, it feels like we're heading for a walk-filled World Series. The Dodgers drew 42 walks in the NLCS, the most any team has ever drawn in any postseason series. And it didn't even go the full seven games! Even with those 42 walks in the NLCS, the Yankees have a higher walk rate than the Dodgers this postseason. They've walked in 13.9% of their plate appearances. The Dodgers have gotten a free pass in 12.6%. Here are some numbers:
| Regular season | Walk rate | Chase rate |
|---|---|---|
Dodgers | 9.6% | 25.9% |
Yankees | 10.8% | 24.9% |
MLB average | 8.2% | 28.6% |
| Postseason | Walk rate | Chase rate |
Dodgers | 12.6% | 25.2% |
Yankees | 13.9% | 24.2% |
MLB average | 9.9% | 30.3% |
The Yankees had the highest walk rate and the lowest chase rate during the regular season. The Dodgers had the third-highest walk rate and the second-lowest chase rate. These are two ultra-disciplined lineups who do not expand the zone often, and are more than happy to take the walk and pass the baton if that's what the pitcher gives them. Add in a few pitchers who are prone to ball four (Luis Gil, Michael Kopech, etc.) and you have all the ingredients for the walkiest World Series ever.
The current record is 76 combined walks by Cleveland (40) and the Marlins (36) in the 1997 World Series. That series went the full seven games and had an 11-inning game, plus there were a few intentional walks to get to the pitcher's spot during the four games in Miami back before the universal DH became a thing. The two teams walked in 13% of their plate appearances in 1997. The Dodgers and Yankees are at 13.2% combined this postseason. Prepare yourselves for a walk-filled Fall Classic. It has been foretold.
4. One of the 'Big Six' will not win World Series MVP
The "Big Six" of course being Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Giancarlo Stanton. That's five former MVPs and also Soto, who was MVP runner-up in 2021 and might be the best hitter of the bunch. Some of the game's very best players and brightest talent will be on display in the World Series. What tremendous theater. The best players in the world and the two best teams in each league meeting in October, as the baseball gods intended.
For this bold prediction, we're going to say one of the "Big Six" will not win World Series MVP. It's really not all that outlandish, is it? Tommy Edman just won NLCS MVP out from under Betts and Ohtani. Who had Jeremy Peña winning World Series MVP in 2022 or Jorge Soler in 2021? (Ahem, this guy did.) Guys get unexpectedly hot and swing postseason series all the time. Here are our World Series picks. Feel free to peruse and see who this author believes will be the non-Big Six player to win World Series MVP.
5. A starter will throw the final pitch of the World Series
An actual relief pitcher has thrown the final pitch of the last three World Series. In the four years prior to that though, a starter came out of the bullpen and threw the final pitch three times. Here is the final out of the last seven World Series:
| Year | Outcome | Pitcher | Final out |
|---|---|---|---|
2023 | Rangers over D-backs | Josh Sborz | Ketel Marte strikes out looking |
2022 | Astros over Phillies | Ryan Pressly | Nick Castellanos pop out in foul territory |
2021 | Braves over Astros | Will Smith | Yuli Gurriel ground out to short |
2020 | Dodgers over Rays | Julio Urías | Willy Adames strikes out looking |
2019 | Nationals over Astros | Daniel Hudson | Michael Brantley strikes out swinging |
2018 | Red Sox over Dodgers | Chris Sale | Manny Machado strikes out swinging |
2017 | Astros over Dodgers | Charlie Morton | Corey Seager ground out to second |
Excluding openers, two starting pitchers have made relief appearances this postseason: Mets lefty David Peterson and Brewers ace Freddy Peralta. Peterson made 21 regular season starts after returning from a hip injury, then made four relief appearances and one start (NLCS Game 4) in October. Fastball Freddy made 32 regular season starts, started Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, then came out of the bullpen in Game 3. Otherwise managers have avoided using starters in relief this postseason.
Our final bold prediction calls for someone who typically works as a starter to throw the final pitch of the World Series, and we are leaving this intentionally vague. Is said starting pitcher coming out of the bullpen? Throwing a complete game (see: bold prediction No. 2)? Is he even getting an out? The final pitch could be a walk-off! The World Series has not ended on a walk-off hit since Luis Gonzalez singled off Mariano Rivera in Game 7 in 2001. We've overdue for a World Series clinching walk-off, no?
