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USATSI

Now that the Dodgers have been crowned champions and the World Series has concluded, it's time to focus on what comes next. For Major League Baseball's front offices, the answer is right there on the league's calendar: the opening of the free-agent market.

As is tradition, we here at CBS Sports are previewing this winter's free-agent class by ranking the top 50 players based on a combination of their expected average annual value and their perceived skill level. Additionally, because we love being yelled at online by people who refuse to read the introduction, we've included a few potential landing spots for each player. It should go without saying (but it doesn't) that there are more than three likely suitors for each player.

These rankings are formed after firsthand statistical and observational analysis, as well as conversations with scouts, analysts, and other front-office types, and historical research. We freely admit to being biased toward and against some profiles, and we stress that we don't care if our rankings diverge from other public lists. Variety is good.

Below you'll find our top 50 rankings as free agency formally opens Monday. Now, let's get down to brass tacks.

1. Juan Soto, OF 

The short hook: A generational hitter in his statistical prime.

For the second offseason in a row, these rankings are topped by a future Hall of Famer. Soto is, plainly, one of the five best hitters in the world. He pairs elite plate discipline with elite strength and elite barrel awareness; that triumvirate empowered him to become the first left-handed hitter in nearly two decades to record consecutive seasons in which he recorded at least 35 home runs and walked more than he struck out. How's this for consistency: Soto has been an everyday big-league player since he was 19 years old, yet he's never finished a season (no matter the number of games played) with an OPS+ below 140. The dangdest thing about Soto is that, for as accomplished as he is, next season will represent his age-26 campaign. (To put that into perspective, Yankees catcher Austin Wells just finished his first full big-league season following a reasonably paced development path … and he's only 260 days younger than Soto.) Nitpick Soto's defense and question how long he'll avoid the DH role if you so choose. Eventually, you must concede that players this skilled, this accomplished, and this young seldom reach free agency. Expect him to get paid in accordance to that reality. Potential landing spots: Yankees, Mets, Giants

2. Corbin Burnes, RHP

The short hook: Undeniable track record, but is decline underway?

At first blush, Burnes is clearly this free-agent class' best and most reliable starting pitcher. He's earned four consecutive trips to the All-Star Game; he's among the league leaders in innings pitched since the pandemic; and he's proved that his game works both inside the American League and outside of Milwaukee, as if there was any doubt. Yet if you look closely enough at his profile, you'll notice some hints of potential decline. For starters, Burnes' strikeout rate deteriorated for a fourth year in a row, dipping beneath a batter per inning for the first time in his career. His trademark cutter, the primary pitch in his bag, returned its worst results (highest average and lowest whiff rate) until some late-season tinkering helped get it back on course. His in-zone contact rate, meanwhile, put him in the same neighborhood occupied by Kyle Gibson, Chris Flexen, and Carson Fulmer, among others. Mind you, none of the above prevented Burnes from notching another high-quality season. His command remains superb, enabling him to control quality of contact the way few others can. Burnes himself has explained away his strikeout rate by saying he was prioritizing early outs. Maybe so, but we suspect teams will think a little longer and a little harder than they expected to before handing him a long-term deal. Potential landing spots: Orioles, Mets, Red Sox

3. Alex Bregman, 3B

The short hook: Esteemed third baseman with some question marks.

Bregman has been one of the most productive third basemen in the sport for much of his career. He's compiled the sixth-most WAR at the position since 2020, putting him ahead of Rafael Devers and behind only the who's who of this era's third basemen. He's had a terrific career to date. Yet this exercise is, in part, about looking forward. The more we dug in on Bregman, the more we developed reservations about his bat. There's no denying his feel for contact but we're not as confident about the other elements. For instance, Statcast's calculations suggest he would have at least 30 fewer career home runs had he hit the same array of batted balls in one of 17 other MLB fields. You can't hold that against Bregman -- you golf the course you're on -- but it does suggest his power might play down elsewhere. There's also the matter of his walk rate, which cratered to a career-low 6.9% last season as he grew more aggressive. Bregman's bat-to-ball and defensive skills remain good enough for him to provide value; there's just a little more reason to say "hm" here than his name value indicates. Potential landing spots: Astros, Nationals, Tigers

4. Blake Snell, LHP

The short hook: Electric lefty returns for round two.

Snell recovered from a truncated spring training and a pair of early trips to the injured list to accumulate the fourth-best ERA+ of his career. That doesn't sound impressive at first blush, but consider the circumstances and remember he's a two-time Cy Young Award winner. Snell still has the same basic profile that he did this time last year, when he was embarking on his first foray into free agency: he has elite bat-missing ability, yet some teams will scoff at his inefficiency. Fair enough, we suppose. Snell continues to produce year in and year out all the same. At some point, you have to just tip your cap and accept that that's the way it's going to be. In turn, here's hoping he lands the long-term deal that he was denied 12 months ago. Potential landing spots: Giants, Cubs, Mets

5. Max Fried, LHP

The short hook: Accomplished lefty with nasty curveball.

We wanted to print a complete list of left-handed starting pitchers with a better ERA+ than Fried since the beginning of the 2020 season, but we ran into a problem when we went to compile the names. You see, no sinister hurler who had a decent amount of innings (min. 200 combined) actually placed ahead of him in that metric. Oh well. Blame Fried's sustained excellence on his ability to manage contact. He ranked in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity last season, and he did it while generating nearly 60% ground balls for a second consecutive year. The biggest knock on Fried is his innings count, as he's cleared the 180-threshold just once in his career. Given the league's direction over the past decade, we're not inclined to think that'll hurt him. Potential landing spots: Giants, Mets, Padres

6. Willy Adames, SS

The short hook: Reliable slugging shortstops don't grow on trees.

Adames cinched a new single-season high in home runs and notched his fifth consecutive three-plus-win season (excluding 2020's sprint) thanks in part to a white-hot August. For the most part, he's the same player he has been for years: he's capable of impacting the baseball frequently enough to overshadow his swing-and-miss tendencies; he's not a Gold Glove-caliber fielder, but he'll remain at shortstop for the time being; and so on. The one interesting wrinkle he added this season was a newfound willingness and ability to steal bases. If we had to guess, we would pencil Adames in for a sweeter deal than the seven-year, $177 million Dansby Swanson received a few winters ago. Potential landing spots: Braves, Tigers, Giants

7. Roki Sasaki, RHP

The short hook: Explosive young righty with durability questions

Sasaki is the most talented pitcher not already in an MLB organization. He's been on the global radar since throwing a 19-strikeout perfect game as a 20-year-old in 2022. He combines elite velocity with a devastating swing-and-miss splitter/forkball. Sasaki has dealt with his share of injuries, limiting him to 33 combined starts across the last two seasons. His earning potential is completely suppressed because of his amateur free agent classification. Nevertheless, a fully actualized Sasaki has a chance to be an immediate impact starter in the majors. Potential landing spots: Dodgers, Orioles, Yankees

8. Jack Flaherty, RHP

The short hook: Resurgent righty will blow away last winter's pillow contract.

This time a year ago, Flaherty was coming off a putrid stint with the Orioles that saw him relegated to the bullpen for Baltimore's brief postseason run. His topline results were disappointing, and his underlying measures didn't offer much hope. The one-year pact he signed with the Tigers seemed like a proverbial fork in the road: either he was going to redeem himself, or he was going to spend the next few years hopping around the league on similar deals until interest completely dried up. Flaherty did the former, fixing his fastball axis and (perhaps relatedly) mothballing his cutter in favor of a three-pitch mix. He didn't perform quite as well after a midseason trade to the Dodgers, but he's on the right side of 30 and there's more than enough here to envision him serving as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for a few years more. In other words, don't expect him to settle for another one-year arrangement this offseason. Potential landing spots: Dodgers, Mets, Angels

9. Sean Manaea, LHP

The short hook: Altered release point unlocked new level for veteran lefty.

The story has been overshared by now, so we'll keep it brief: Manaea, inspired by watching Chris Sale, dropped his release point and added a crossfire element to his delivery in August. That combination created additional deception that seemed to befuddle hitters -- to the extent that he posted a 3.41 ERA and a 4.24 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his final 11 appearances. Manaea is already nearing his 33rd birthday, and there is a fair amount of risk in assuming he'll continue to be as effective with additional exposure. Still, we feel confident writing that he'll get a raise on the $14 million AAV he signed for last winter. Potential landing spots: Mets, Dodgers, Rangers

10. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP

The short hook: Veteran right-hander can still get the job done.

Want to feel old? It's been more than six years since Eovaldi's gutsy six-inning relief appearance on one day's rest during the 2018 World Series. He's still kicking, having just notched his fifth consecutive season with a 100 ERA+ or better. Eovaldi may be nearing his 35th season, but he continues to adjust; last season, for instance, he used his splitter more frequently (30.8%) than at any point prior in his career. Other aspects of Eovaldi's game have remained constant: he still throws more strikes than Shawn Fain, and he's consistently averaged around six innings per pop in three of the last four years. Eventually, Eovaldi will show signs of decline. Until then, he's more than qualified to slot in near the front of some contender's rotation. Potential landing spots: Rangers, Nationals, Diamondbacks

11. Pete Alonso, 1B

The short hook: Market predilections could cause chilled reception for the Polar Bear.

Remember, these rankings are assembled using expected annual average value as a guidepost -- meaning that players with profiles oftentimes disregarded by front offices will be placed lower than you might've expected to find them based on their talent alone. Alonso is an affable slugger who has never failed to homer 30-plus times over a full season. Alas, he's also a righty-hitting first baseman nearing his 30th birthday. Teams have shown they'll make exceptions for generational talents, an Albert Pujols or a Miguel Cabrera, but Alonso falls short of that measuring stick. It won't help his case that he's seen his strikeout rate increase two years running, even while (oddly enough) posting the best in-zone contact rate of his career. Our guess is that the best-case scenario here is landing the Paul Goldschmidt deal plus inflation. Potential landing spots: Mets, Giants, Astros

12. Max Scherzer, RHP

The short hook: Esteemed righty is a big question mark.

Scherzer was restricted by injury to nine starts this season; none before June, and just one after August. Add in his limited availability down the stretch in 2023, and it seems fair to think that the wheels are starting to come unglued for the 40-year-old. Still, Scherzer has expressed his desire to pitch in 2025. Who are we to scoff at the idea? Besides, he performed well when he was able to, leaving us no doubt that a team will gladly sign him to a one-year pact -- if only to ensure they're mentioned some day down the road, when he's giving his induction speech in Cooperstown. Potential landing spots: Rangers, Cardinals, Braves

13. Shane Bieber, RHP

The short hook: Tommy John surgery complicates former Cy Young Award winner's outlook.

Think of Bieber as this class's Tyler Mahle. (Except, you know, far more famous and accomplished). Bieber underwent Tommy John surgery in April, ending his 2024 after two appearances and likely delaying his 2025 debut until sometime into May or June. This is where the Mahle comparison is instructive; it used to be that rehabbing pitchers would have to settle for one-year arrangements. The Rangers showed that they were OK giving two years (and $22 million) to Mahle. Bieber may prefer a one-year deal so that he can try again at a bigger payday next offseason. If he does follow Mahle's lead, though, we suspect that he'll safely outkick that $11 million annual average value. Potential landing spots: Red Sox, Mets, Cubs

14. Ha-Seong Kim, SS

The short hook: Plus defense at shortstop, league-average stick, but shoulder woes could limit market.

Talented defensive shortstops with three years of league-average offensive production are always in demand. It's always been that way, and it'll remain that way until baseball stops being played because of an uninhabitable planet or cosmic catastrophe. Kim very much checks both boxes. He's a pleasure to watch man his position, showing a particular attitude for ranging to his right. While Kim won't be confused for a dynamic offensive player anytime soon, the improvements he's made as a basestealer have helped offset his lackluster slugging capacity. He's a good player. Unfortunately, he required shoulder surgery this fall that will sideline him into next season and likely suppress his earning potential. Potential landing spots: Padres, Braves, Giants

15. Anthony Santander, OF

The short hook: Switch-hitter with power, but defensive limitations could restrict market.

In addition to being living proof that there are still quality players to be unearthed in the Rule 5 draft, Santander became the first switch-hitter to homer 40 or more times in a season since Carlos Beltrán and Lance Berkman both did it in 2006. Santander isn't a mindless slugger (not that there would be anything wrong with that); he's adept at making above-average amounts of contact, allowing him to keep his strikeout rate underneath 20% despite what could be charitably described as an excitable approach. Unfortunately, Santander doesn't bring much more to the table than his bat: he's not a good defender or baserunner, meaning interested clubs will have to be confident that he can sustain his well-above-average offensive production well into his 30s. Potential landing spots: Orioles, Diamondbacks, Royals

16. Joc Pederson, OF

The short hook: Joc can sock.

We wrote last winter that the underlying measures suggested Pederson had a significantly better 2023 than his topline results indicated. Consider this past season to be a statistical course correction. Pederson had the best showing of his career, walking and slugging his way to a personal-high 151 OPS+. His game is the same as it's been for a while now: he's a professional hitter with some platoon issues and negative defensive value. If you're OK with that, he's going to give what you sign up for: plus offensive output against righties. Want more? Then you're shopping down the wrong aisle. Potential landing spots: Diamondbacks, Reds, Angels

17. Teoscar Hernández, OF

The short hook: Still a middle-of-the-order hitter, just a year older.

Modern front offices talk a big game about paying only for the future, not the past. That preference creates some weird situations. Take Hernández. He just had a good season, his fourth in five tries, yet it's unclear what will matter more to teams: that he provided more evidence that he's an above-average bat, or that he's a year older than he was last winter, his first foray into free agency. You can hope for the former, but we suspect some teams will dock him for the latter. Ever the same, Hernández's ability to impact the baseball helps atone for his strikeout tendencies and his defensive deficiencies. Potential landing spots: Braves, Angels, Royals

18. Christian Walker, 1B

The short hook: Can really hit, but age and market tastes will suppress deal.

Over the past five offseasons, there's been exactly one righty-hitting first baseman who signed a contract longer than two years: José Abreu with the Houston Astros. The less written about how that deal aged the better. Pete Alonso should make it two this offseason; can Walker get the count to three? We're skeptical, though it's not an indictment of his talent. Walker is coming off a tremendous three-year run during which he displayed both on-base and slugging capabilities. It's also not to belittle his story -- remember, this is someone who was claimed off waivers three times in a single month in 2017. Our pessimism stems from Walker's encroaching 34th birthday. Teams haven't shown an inclination to commit to right-right first basemen with regularity. We have no reason to believe Walker will be an exception. Potential landing spots: Diamondbacks, Mets, Giants

19. Luis Severino, RHP

The short hook: Altered arsenal led to rebound season.

Severino followed up a dreadful 2023 season by taking action. He overhauled his arsenal, upping his sinker usage and installing a sweeper as his top secondary offering. That combination, to some unknowable degree, helped him achieve better results -- overall, and on his four-seam fastball. Severino's durability woes (this was the first year he started 20 or more times since 2018) make a three-plus-year contract appear to be a risky proposition; you have to pay to play in this game, though, and we suspect at least a few teams will be willing to pony up to add a rejuvenated mid-rotation starter. Potential landing spots: Mets, Rangers, Red Sox

20. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP

The short hook: Talented lefty with some positive momentum.

The Astros were widely panned at the trade deadline when they surrendered some of their best prospects (a relative description) for Kikuchi. It wasn't a matter of talent so much as a question of execution. Kikuchi has long been appraised as having a phenomenal arsenal; he's just seldom performed like it. Yet he delivered for the Astros, posting a 147 ERA+ and a 5.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 starts. Kikuchi's improvements stemmed from some startingly obvious tweaks: he reduced his fastball and curve usage and instead spammed his slider more than 37% of the time. Logic dictates teams are unlikely to put greater weight in 10 starts than the preceding 144. Still, it only takes one True Believer for Kikuchi to land a richer than expected deal. Potential landing spots: Astros, Orioles, Nationals

21. Gleyber Torres, 2B

The short hook: A blah walk year won't stop someone from betting on a rebound season.

From the files of Contrasting, Simultaneously True Statements: Torres had a disappointing walk year, finishing with the second-lowest OPS+ of his career, yet he's comfortably a top-25 free agent on the basis of his youth (he's heading into his age-28 season) and his track record (he has a career 112 OPS+). While we expect Torres will take a one- or two-year pillow contract and render these next comments moot, we do have two reservations about his long-term outlook. Foremost, almost all of his power is reserved for middle-middle mistakes, with him reliably struggling to do much on pitches away; additionally, he's already a below-average defender at the keystone, something that doesn't bode well for his chances of providing secondary value as he ages into his 30s. Again, those concerns are likely to be more relevant for the contract after this one, but they're worth keeping in mind as his career progresses. Potential landing spots: Yankees, Royals, Red Sox

22. Blake Treinen, RHP

The short hook: Outstanding comeback year makes him arguably the top reliever available.

Coming into the year, it was reasonable to think that Treinen wouldn't be as effective this season as he was in 2021, when he posted a 1.99 ERA and a 3.40 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his most recent full campaign. After all, he was entering his age-36 season and had missed most of 2022-23 because of shoulder surgery. He then suffered fractured ribs and a bruised lung when he was hit by a line drive in spring training. That makes it all the more remarkable that Treinen wasn't just as good as he was in 2021, he was measurably better: improving upon his ERA (and ERA estimators) as well as his strikeout, walk, and strikeout-to-walk rates. The sweeper he forged in 2021 has been a revelation for him, to the extent that it's probably fair to think he has at least another season of being a high-end reliever in him -- and, who knows, maybe more than that.  Potential landing spots: Basically every contender

23. Clay Holmes, RHP

The short hook: Will blown saves hurt accomplished closer?

By almost any measure, Holmes had a terrific run with the Yankees. Over three-plus seasons, he amassed a 155 ERA+, a 3.45 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and 74 saves. It's a little disheartening, then, that his final season in the Bronx saw him lose his closer's gig after blowing 13 of his 43 save opportunities. SURE LOCK Holmes he wasn't. Nevertheless, he made some adjustments throughout the year: first reducing his slider usage in favor of a sweeper, then leaning even more heavily into his trademark sinker. Even if Holmes hadn't shown adaptability, his underlying measures and track record are strong enough that we believe teams will overlook his spotty save conversion rate and gladly hand over both a multi-year deal and a high-leverage role. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender

24. Jeff Hoffman, RHP

The short hook: Elite reliever ready for a payday.

Hoffman spent two seasons with the Phillies, during which he morphed into an elite reliever. The damage: a 184 ERA+ and a 4.51 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 122 appearances. He throws four pitches but he really leans on two in particular: his swing-and-miss slider (the only pitch in his arsenal that goes glove side) and his mid-to-upper-90s heater. (He'll also chuck a splitter and a sinker.) Hoffman generates an elite amount of whiffs and chases, and he has greatly improved his control since his starter days. The only thing separating him from a 30-save season is opportunity. It's coming. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender

25. Jurickson Profar, OF

The short hook: Breakout season with peripherals to boot, but is anyone buying in?

How much do you believe? You can run the numbers. You can watch the tape. You can consult with projection systems. You can chat with an oracle. Ultimately, player evaluation is a test of faith. No matter how you reached your conclusion, the whole thing reduces down to this: how much conviction do you hold in it? Are you willing to be wrong? If not, you're already lost. All of this is relevant to Profar, a fascinating study case. The former No. 1 prospect finally made good on that billing, notching his first star-caliber season at the plate at age 31. The underlying measures all pointed in the right direction: he hit the ball with greater authority; he walked more; he struck out less. If he were five years younger, he'd be in line for a handsome payday. He's not, though, so his marketplace reception hinges on how teams answer this capsule's first question. Potential landing spots: Padres, Braves, Royals 

26. Walker Buehler, RHP

The short hook: Terrible season, but some reasons for underlying optimism.

Buehler feels like this winter's version of Luis Severino: a once-promising right-hander with an injury history and a dismal walk year (at least in the regular season) to his name. As with Severino, the pitch-grading models are a lot sweeter on Buehler's arsenal than you might suspect they would be based on his poor results. Depending on which one you consult with, Buehler -- who closed out the World Series -- is estimated to have three or four above-average pitches. We fully expect some team to take that information to heart and hand him a one-year pact worth around $15 million. Potential landing spots: Dodgers, Mets, Orioles

27. Tanner Scott, LHP

The short hook: Late-blooming lefty reliever with elite stuff.

Scott's last two seasons have been something to behold. In 150 innings, he's notched a 2.04 ERA and has struck out more than 31% of the batters he's faced. Not bad for someone who came into his age-28 season equipped with a 4.61 ERA. Scott has two big-time offerings: a 97 mph rising heater and a devastating slider that generated nearly 40% whiffs in 2024. He has battled his command throughout his career, but otherwise he's a compelling candidate to be known as the best and nastiest anonymous reliever in the game. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender

28. Nick Pivetta, RHP

The short hook: Good stuff, fine results.

Pivetta's arsenal has reached an odd point in its evolution. His four-seam fastball is the only one of his five pitches that works toward his arm side; everything else cuts to the glove side. That weird dynamic hasn't stopped him from developing into a solid mid-rotation starter. Dating back to 2021, he's compiled a 102 ERA+ and a 3.15 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That's fine work for someone whose name used to be synonymous with underperformance. We'd be remiss if we didn't note that some team out there will surely pursue him with the belief that they can get a little more from him. At minimum, getting Pivetta away from the American League East could help. Potential landing spots: Mets, Astros, Dodgers

29. Charlie Morton, RHP

The short hook: Graybeard probably has one more in him.

Morton hasn't announced his intent to retire or to return for an 18th big-league season. We're including him because we think he still has something to offer to a club. He's made 30-plus appearances four years running, all the while posting an average or better ERA and strikeout-to-walk ratio for a starting pitcher. Despite Morton's advanced age and mileage, he continues to adapt and adjust. His curveball remains the king of its domain, but he's made a point of reducing his four-seamer usage; additionally, he's all but mothballed his once-signature sinker, bumping it to his fourth-most used pitch behind a changeup. Morton has been as flexible as any non-elite pitcher in recent memory; that helps to explain why he's in position to pitch beyond his 41st birthday. Potential landing spots: Braves, Rays, Nationals

30. Kenley Jansen, RHP

The short hook: One of the best closers of all time appears to be slowing down.

Although Jansen is no longer at the peak of his powers, he's continued to compile his numbers without fail. He celebrated his 37th birthday in September, right as he was putting a bow on his fifth consecutive season with an ERA+ of 120 or better. He's now 53 saves (or about two seasons' worth) away from 500, a mark that only Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman have cleared. Will Jansen get there? We'd like to think so. Alas, if you look closely there is a potential canary in the coal mine here: he allowed the hardest average contact of his career against his cutter. That didn't manifest in the form of his topline results, but his continued reliance upon his cutter makes that tidbit something worth monitoring as he heads into his 16th big-league season. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender 

31. Tyler O'Neill, OF

The short hook: Volatile outfielder coming off a huge season.

O'Neill has, over the course of his big-league career, garnered a reputation for being an underperformer. The reasoning for that perception is straightforward. He's always been blessed with plus physicality: the strength and bat speed to hit the ball hard, the quick-twitch fibers to run fast (though he's started to slow down as he nears his 30s), and so on. Unfortunately, he's rarely had the statistical output to match. There have been a few exceptions, however, including this most recent season, when O'Neill posted a 132 OPS+ by homering 31 times in 113 games. His hyper-pull approach isn't for everyone, and he often hits the ball at such lofty trajectories that he's a perpetual candidate to post a poor batting average. And yet, we think the biggest reservation teams might have with him concerns his durability: he's appeared in 100 or more games just twice in seven years. Players don't tend to get healthier as they age, suggesting he's always going to necessitate his employer having a satisfactory Plan B at the ready. Will that greatly impact his next deal? Maybe not, but it could impact where he falls on preference lists. Potential landing spots: Royals, Padres, Reds

32. Andrew Heaney, LHP

The short hook: Veteran lefty with extreme fly-ball tendencies.

Heaney is now several seasons removed from his slider-inspired revival with the Dodgers. He hasn't reached those heights since, but he's been a perfectly cromulent starter who spams the opposition with a three-pitch mix (fastballs, sliders, and changeups). Heaney needs a particular environment to thrive: he allows a lot of fly balls and is vulnerable to hard contact, but teams in spacious ballparks could see him as a short-term fit near the back of their rotation. Potential landing spots: Giants, Royals, Padres  

33. Jose Quintana, LHP

The short hook: No-frills lefty still delivers.

Quintana has pitched in the majors for parts of 13 years now. Just once, back in 2021, has he finished a season with an ERA+ below the starting pitcher average (usually 93). He doesn't have high-octane stuff, to put it kindly, but he locates well and uses his four-pitch arsenal to good enough effect. There's always crater risk with these kinds of pitchers regardless of their age (he's nearing his 36th birthday). Still, a team could do worse than counting on Quintana to be their No. 4 starter. Potential landing spots: Royals, Diamondbacks, Giants

34. Carlos Estévez, RHP

The short hook: Power reliever coming off great two-year run.

Some blessings are obvious, others less so. Everyone knew that leaving Coors Field would become one for Estévez, who has since made the most of his two years away from baseball's most generous launching pad. He made the All-Star Game in 2023, then generated a career-best 171 ERA+ in 2024 while splitting the year between the Angels and the Phillies. Estévez is a little lower here than you may have expected because he misses fewer bats and barrels than his power arsenal suggests he should. Obviously that hasn't prevented him from having a good deal of recent success, but it's the kind of thing that might start to matter more -- and potentially much more -- now that his velocity is in decline. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender 

35. David Robertson, RHP

The short hook: Age is just a number for veteran reliever.

Robertson is nearing both his 17th big-league season and his 40th birthday, meaning he's been getting key outs in important situations for more than 40% of his life. Based on his performance in 2024, it's fair to write that his battery still has more charge left. Robertson kept clip-clopping along, posting his highest strikeout rate (33.5%) since 2017 thanks to some arsenal reshuffling. He minimized the slider that had been part of his arsenal in recent years, leaning more fully into his nasty cutter-curve combination. Robertson has pitched in every relief role imaginable, and he doesn't seem too picky about it. That makes him a fit for practically any club looking to add another proven contributor to their 'pen. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender

36. Kirby Yates, RHP

The short hook: Highly effective reliever despite health and command risks.

We figure that Yates' market will be limited by his durability and his command. He's thrown 60 innings in consecutive seasons, but he had previously missed most of three seasons because of injury woes. Additionally, he's walked nearly five batters per nine over the last two years. Mind you, Yates has succeeded despite the free passes by excelling at managing contact -- both in terms of quality and frequency. He has a two-pitch approach: 93 mph fastballs up and to the glove side, and trapdoor splitters low. Each pitch generated a whiff rate over 30% and a batting average against under .115 in 2024. It's possible that Yates' body breaks down again, or that he loses just enough stuff to render him less effective. That risk, however, ought to limit his market to short-term deals that could make him one of the best relief bargains of the winter. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender 

37. Nick Martinez, RHP

The short hook: Swingman control artist who gets the job done.

Martinez declined his $12 million player option with the Reds to reenter the free-agent market. It'll be interesting to see if he's in pursuit of more money, or perhaps more of a guarantee that he'll be used in a starting role. (Or, um, both.) Martinez has been highly effective the last three seasons since returning from Japan, compiling a 126 ERA+ and a 3.20 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Alas, only 35 of his 152 appearances have been starts. He's capable of doing the job thanks to a broad arsenal (six pitches, of which two grade as average or better) that helps him induce chases and control quality of contact, but teams might not be eager to afford a 34-year-old his first 20-start season in a decade. We have to assume some club will take the leap if it means getting a decent back-end starter with the ability to slide back into relief if warranted. Potential landing spots: Brewers, Guardians, Mets

38. Michael Lorenzen, RHP

The short hook: The kitchen sink isn't big enough for this arsenal.

We've denied Lorenzen a spot on these lists in the past before because he doesn't fit what we conventionally desire from starting pitchers. Namely, he's prone to amassing some less-than-impressive strikeout (and strikeout-to-walk) rates. We're giving in to him this spin around the sun with the thinking that teams will try to mimic the Royals' approach by adding pitchers whose arsenals are greater than the sum of their parts. Lorenzen throws something like seven pitches, all spanning the vertical and horizontal movement spectrum, and maybe two of them would grade as average or better. That he's continued to find success anyway (he's accumulated a 106 ERA+ since 2022) suggests there's an effect not being captured by traditional measures or modes of thinking. Let's see if he can keep it up. Potential landing spots: Royals, Brewers, Diamondbacks  

39. Harrison Bader, CF

The short hook: Mean glove, lean stick.

In addition to being one of the best defensive outfielders in the sport, Bader is a capable basestealer who has succeeded on 54 of his last 68 attempts. Unfortunately, that's about the extent of his game. Bader, though not far removed from posting above-average offensive marks three times in four years, doesn't offer much at the plate; he won't walk and he can't slug, and this past season he became prone to hitting ground ball after ground ball to the left side. He still started more than 100 times for an LCS participant, but at this stage of his career he's someone you tolerate until you can upgrade upon. Potential landing spots: Marlins, Guardians, White Sox

40. Michael Conforto, OF

The short hook: Aging platoon bat in need of a better ballpark fit.

Conforto had his most productive season since 2020, clearing the 50 extra base-hit threshold despite playing in a ballpark that greatly suppressed his home-run total. To wit, Statcast's calculations suggest that San Francisco was the single worst park for him from a home-run perspective. Things can only get better. Whichever team signs Conforto should expect him to hit righties well; they should not expect him to hit lefties, or to play a stellar corner outfield. Potential landing spots: Reds, Astros, Braves

41. Justin Turner, 1B/DH

The short hook: Walks and singles, singles and walks, walks and singles, singles and walks.

Singles and walks form the hands on Turner's clock. He doesn't offer defensive or baserunning value, and he no longer possesses the necessary bat speed to hit for power. What remains is his feel for contact and the strike zone alike. It's enough to keep him tick-tocking along at an above-average offensive pace. Turner's advanced age (next season will be his age-40 campaign) and otherwise narrow skill set does make him an attrition risk, however, and that'll keep his cost down and his term to a year. Potential landing spots: Tigers, Royals, Mariners

42. Carlos Santana, 1B

The short hook: You know the drill.

It feels like we write the same thing every winter about Santana, but nothing has changed about his game in the last few years other than his age and his employer. (He's played for five clubs since the start of the 2022 season.) Otherwise? You can pencil him in for 15 to 20 home runs; a league-average (or better) on-base percentage; and good defense at the cold corner. Santana's not an impact player by any means, and there's undeniable age-related risk here. Still, he's the kind of cheap, productive second-division option that ought to appeal to contenders of all budgets. Potential landing spots: Cardinals, Yankees, Mets

43. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

The short hook: The name value exceeds the game value.

It took 14 seasons but, for the first time in Goldschmidt's career, he failed to post an OPS+ of 100 or better. We must admit that the end is nigh. Goldschmidt's strikeout and walk rates both veered in the wrong directions, leaving him more dependent on his slugging. He can still put a charge into the ball, but his power output has slipped over the last two seasons. There's no shame to any of this; it's simply how aging in baseball works. Goldschmidt is 37 years old and has had a phenomenal career, one that has included seven All-Star Game appearances and a Most Valuable Player Award victory. We think he'll play big-league baseball in 2025 if he chooses to; he just won't be as good as he used to be, to say nothing of him being as good as he wants to be. Potential landing spots: Yankees, Mets, Mariners

44. J.D. Martinez, DH

The short hook: Aging slugger might be on last legs.

We expressed concerns about Martinez's decline last offseason. Here we are to do it again. He finished with a 106 OPS+ that represented his worst mark in a full season since 2013 -- back before he joined the Tigers and broke out. All of his good hitting was contained to May and June, to the extent that he struck out more times in the second half (63) than he reached base (61). Martinez also had troubles with right-handed pitching, something owed to a 42% whiff rate on breaking pitches. It's not particularly surprising that a 37 year old is showing signs of decay; it is, though, worrisome when the player in question creates value only at the plate. We suspect Martinez will have a spot on an Opening Day roster; additional slippage could prevent him from keeping it through the entire season. Potential landing spots: Giants, Blue Jays, Tigers

45. Frankie Montas, RHP

The short hook: The ingredients are here for better numbers.

Montas notched more than 30 starts for the first time since 2021, albeit while accumulating the second-worst full-season ERA+ of his career. We're including him over some pitchers who had better years because we believe there's obvious room for improvement. Foremost, we doubt Montas finishes with one of the 10 highest home run rates (as a percentage of fly balls) again in 2025. Additionally, his arsenal contains several above-average pitches (most notably his splitter and sweeper), and we think that some enterprising team will figure out a way to optimize his pitch mix. The Brewers gave it a go late in the year, asking him to up his sinker and cutter usage; he responded with an 18.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate that would've ranked 18th in the majors over the whole season among qualified starters. If he comes anywhere close to that margin again in 2025, we suspect that his efforts will be rewarded with a significantly lower ERA. Potential landing spots: Guardians, Rays, Marlins

46. Yoán Moncada, 3B

The short hook: The biggest wild card in the class.

Moncada is a difficult player to pin down. He's still months away from celebrating his 30th birthday, but he feels simultaneously younger and older than that. Younger because he's appeared in just under 70 games per season over the last three years; older because he already appears to be in decline. Will Moncada ever have another season as brilliant as his effort in 2021? We're skeptical, but some teams will understandably line up to see what his game looks like in an environment more conducive to good play than what the White Sox have offered in recent years. Potential landing spots: Brewers, Royals, Astros 

47. Jesse Winker, OF

The short hook: Platoon outfielder had a resurgent season

Winker split his year between the Nationals and Mets, amassing a 118 OPS+ that served as his best mark since 2021 -- back when he made his first (and to date only) All-Star Game appearance. Winker's underlying metrics suggest he wasn't all the way back to that form, but that he did hit the ball harder (and more frequently hard) than in recent years. That, plus his undeniable feel for the zone and contact, are enough for us to believe some team will roster him as their most-days left fielder to begin the 2025 season. Potential landing spots: Reds, Diamondbacks, Marlins

48. A.J. Minter, LHP

The short hook: Swing-and-miss lefty coming off hip surgery.

This is a touch lower than Minter deserves to be based on his track record as a high-leverage lefty, but we're hedging our bets on how teams will react to the season-ending hip surgery he underwent in August. To his credit, he continued to be effective when he was available; to his debit, his velocity and both his strikeout and home-run rates declined to the worst of his career. Attributing those marks to Minter's physical ailment seems fair. At the same time, it's probably wise to account for the possibility that he never quite regains his peak form again. Potential landing spots: Basically every contender 

49. Aroldis Chapman, LHP

The short hook: Continues to get the job done.

Chapman still throws hard; he still issues a lot of free passes; he still strikes out a ton of batters; and he still doesn't seem to demand the closer's role to sign. Is there anything new to report here? Maybe that he's staying further from being the two-pitch pitcher he was at his peak, now throwing four pitches more than 10% of the time: four-seamer, sinker, slider, and splitter. Beyond that, you know this guy's whole deal. Potential landing spots: Marlins, Rockies, Padres

50. Donovan Solano, 1B

The short hook: Donnie Barrels still eats up lefties.

Solano is limited defensively; he doesn't walk a ton or hit for power (his eight home runs set a new career-high); and he features more blue than red on his Baseball Savant page. Oh, and he's also about to turn 37 years old, making him ancient so far as his player type goes. Yet Solano continues to be a plus contributor whenever he possesses the platoon advantage, and that, plus some wise management, has empowered him to post an OPS+ of 110 or better in four of the last six seasons. He's a very limited player, but he's good at what he does and that should keep him employed for another year. Potential landing spots: Cardinals, Reds, Angels