We're witnessing a sea change in NBA Sixth Man of the Year voting. This award used to be the domain of the volume scorer. Andre Iguodala and Manu Ginobili combined to win it only once. Jamal Crawford and Lou Williams combined to do so six times. Even as we've experienced a shift away from the Crawford-Williams types, half of the past 20 winners have been that season's leading bench scorer.
But Malcolm Brogdon won the award while finishing fifth in bench scoring during the 2022-23 season. Naz Reid, the reigning 6MOY, was 12th in scoring last season among players to come off of the bench at least 30 times. Reid bucked another trend in the process, becoming only the third center in NBA history to win the award. This is almost always a guards award. Reid, Montrezl Harrell and Lamar Odom are the only non-guard winners in the past 20 years. The one relatively consistent feature of this award is that it goes to winners. Williams is the only 21st century player to win this award on a lottery team. He's the only winner since 2011 not to play for a top-four seed.
There was a time in basketball history in which the sixth man archetype was fairly rigid. Voters expected it to be a gunner, so they voted for the best gunner they could find. These discussions have grown more nuanced in recent years. Now, we obviously know that Andre Iguodala is a better basketball player than Jamal Crawford, and that makes it easier to predict that the next Iguodala to reach the ballot will have an easier time winning.
So with that in mind, let's dig into the 2024-25 Sixth Man of the Year odds. Obviously the scoring guards still have history on their side, but this is a much wider field today than it's ever been.
The favorites
The following candidates have odds no longer than +1000
This is a short section for this particular award. Right now, we're looking at Malik Monk (longest odds at +575), defending champion Naz Reid (+700) and Phoenix Suns sharpshooter Grayson Allen (+1000). I'm not especially enthused about any of them.
Monk improved as a playmaker last season, but he's still not an all-around contributor. His path to this trophy is scoring a lot of points, and with DeMar DeRozan joining the Kings, there just aren't going to be as many shots available to him. Monk finished second last season, but he averaged 1.5 more shots per game than he ever had in a season before. Odds are, his volume is dipping.
The same is probably true for Naz Reid. As we covered during the season, a lot of his surprise surge to the trophy a year ago was based on numbers he put up as a starter. For Reid to win again, you're relying on either Rudy Gobert or Karl-Anthony Towns to get injured again, for Reid to thrive again, and for the field to be as weak or weaker than it was a year ago. That's before we even consider how his own roster is going to affect him. The Timberwolves drafted Rob Dillingham and Terrence Shannon hoping to find a long-term point guard. They are both score-first players. They are both going to get minutes and shots. Reid can score in almost any context, but relying on rookies to get him the ball seems risky.
Of the three, Allen comes with the most upside. He may get to bump his numbers as a starter as well considering how often Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal tend to get injured, and now, he has Tyus Jones to set him up as a more traditional point guard. Allen led the NBA in 3-point percentage a season ago and posted numbers that likely would have had him in the race had he not been a starter. Still, he played over 33 minutes per game to get there. Phoenix has so much fire power that a shooter like Allen is a genuine threat to stay hot for the entire year thanks to all of that extra space, but it's just hard to pick a scorer that isn't much of a creator for this specific award. Allen doesn't bring much else to the table, so while he's a decent bet, he's not one I'd recommend.
The middle of the pack
The following candidates have odds between +1000 and +2500
Now we're talking. My favorite bet on the board is Norman Powell (+1600). The Clippers were applauded for their moves on the margins this offseason, but most of the players they added were defensive specialists. Derrick Jones Jr. and Kris Dunn are offensive negatives. Nic Batum isn't, but he's not much of a shot-creator at this stage in his career. Powell is probably the No. 3 option offensively here, and when you account for James Harden's age and Kawhi Leonard's injury history, there are going to be nights when he's No. 2 or maybe even No. 1. He's finished fourth in back-to-back seasons, posting competitive numbers in both seasons. He's only going to see more opportunity this year.
Let's duck away from the scorers for a second. Josh Hart (+1600) joked on Twitter Monday that he is a 1-4, not a center, in light of the news that Mitchell Robinson will not be ready for the beginning of the season. If we're being absolutely technical, he's right. Hart isn't a center. Tom Thibodeau is just going to make him do center things because Tom Thibodeau makes him do everything. From Feb. 1 through the end of last season, Hart averaged just below 40 minutes per game. He proceeded to averaged 46.4 minutes per game in New York's first nine playoff outings before blowouts and injuries lowered that figure. Thibodeau is about to enter the scary and uncertain circumstance of beginning a season without a healthy, starting-caliber center, and you're telling me I can get middle-of-the-pack odds on Hart, the player he cannot keep off of the court? The real question here is how long he's coming off of the bench. Fortunately, there are probably five non-centers ahead of him in line to start: Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Julius Randle. That should allow him to keep racking up major bench minutes, whether it's at center or somewhere else, and doing all of the unconventional Hart things that Thibodeau, and voters, adore. If you believe in the idea that voters are slowly moving away from the score-first Sixth Man of the Year model, Hart is probably your candidate.
While we're on the Knicks, DiVincenzo (+1400) is an interesting candidate. Ultimately I just think there are too many mouths to feed in New York. For him to get enough on-ball reps to win this award, there probably need to be enough injuries in New York that he ends up starting a decent chunk of games anyway. He averaged only 7.9 points per game off the bench last season, so he's certainly below Hart among New York candidates.
I like C.J. McCollum (+1400), but only in a package with Trey Murphy (+4000). Some completely overqualified Pelican is going to come off of the bench because of their wing glut. I'd probably recommend Brandon Ingram since he doesn't appear to be in their long-term plans anyway and his trade value can't exactly get lower, but it's likelier that McCollum or Murphy. If you like one, you like both. Take the pair, see who's starting, and feel comfortable that one of the very best reserves in basketball is going to be in your portfolio even if you aren't sure who it will be.
Jordan Clarkson (+1500) becomes more interesting the moment he's traded. For now, the Jazz aren't good enough to build a case for him. Bobby Portis (+2000) is a slightly worse Naz Reid, but you're getting longer odds on a player who will have some sentiment behind him after back-to-back third-place finishes. If you're a Bucks believer this season, I won't argue with those odds. It's just hard to build an especially compelling story around him. He's not exactly definitional to Milwaukee's playing style as Reid is to Minnesota's. He doesn't address their biggest weakness (defense). He's just a very strong bench scorer playing a position that limits his creation upside. I won't fault you for taking him, but I wouldn't. Alex Caruso (+2000) is a bit too duplicative of Lu Dort and Cason Wallace to earn a vote from me. Spectacularly valuable player, but it will be hard for him to stand out, especially if the Thunder are careful with his minutes as they tend to be with most of their players. Caris LeVert (+1700) is a stay-away. If he couldn't get on ballots last season, when Darius Garland broke his jaw, I just can't see him doing so under more normal circumstances. I'm not especially kind to perimeter scorers with shaky 3-point shots. Spencer Dinwiddie (+2500) is a stay-away because Jaden Hardy might just be better than him now. There's a reason Dinwiddie was available to be signed three weeks into free agency.
The long shots
The following candidates have odds longer than +2500
Cole Anthony (+5000) has averaged between 17.1 and 18.6 points per 36 minutes in all four of his NBA seasons. The Magic guard is a league-average shooter with a gunner's mindset. I'll gladly take 50-to-1 on a hot shooting season or a fifth-year leap on a very good team that badly needs someone to score off of their bench.
Julian Strawther (+15000) is probably too long a long shot, but here's the logic: Denver shot the fewest 3-pointers in the NBA last season and Strawther is their best chance at correcting that this season. He averaged 11 of them in his two Summer League games. I don't think he gets the minutes to realistically win, but again, we're talking a 150-to-1 sprinkle, not a bet I'd build a portfolio around. Most Denver bets will likely be directed toward Russell Westbrook (+2500), but if it wasn't going to happen on the Clippers a season ago, it probably just isn't going to happen. The shooting is too problematic, especially for a team that needs it like Denver.
Bruce Brown (+15000) isn't going to win this award in Toronto. Even if the Raptors were good enough, he just didn't play especially well during his brief stop in Toronto. If he gets traded in December or January, though, the version of him we saw in Denver was absolutely good enough to win this thing, so I don't mind the odds play of taking him now in the hope that he gets rerouted to the right destination.
I am sorely tempted by Jaden Hardy (+8000). The Mavericks trusted him enough in his second year to give him real playoff minutes, and Tim Hardaway Jr. has gotten votes in Dallas in two of the past four years. There is clearly room on this roster for a bench scorer to accumulate numbers despite the presence of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. The books seem to believe it will be Dinwiddie. I'm Team Hardy. The odds play a role in that, but I'm just also a believer in the skill set. He is the quintessential bench bucket, and in his first two seasons, he's averaged a hair above 20 points per 36 minutes. If you think he beats out Dinwiddie and you think Doncic and/or Irving miss enough time to create more opportunities for him, those odds are reasonable. I probably wouldn't go as far to say absolutely bet it. You're ultimately taking a swing on a player who has barely played, but remember, Reid had never averaged 20 minutes per game before last season. Life comes at Sixth Man of the Year candidates fast.
