I'm not buying it. Maybe I'm just stupid, and maybe I'm stubborn. Those who know me will tell you there's plenty of evidence to support both, but I don't care; I'm not taking the bait.
I still think C.J. Stroud will be the pick at No. 1. I don't care what sportsbooks say or who assistant coaches follow on Instagram. It feels too suspicious that after all this time when Stroud was the pick, the Panthers have suddenly done a 180 and have chosen Bryce Young. It doesn't matter to me that Young has canceled visits with other teams. He knows if the Panthers don't take him, the Texans will.
Want to know my theory? You may want to get your tinfoil hat for this one, but here goes: when the Panthers traded up to No. 1, they said they were still willing to listen to offers for the first pick. Well, perhaps the Panthers know how badly the Texans want Bryce Young. Perhaps it's the Panthers floating it out there that they'll take Young because they're trying to see if they can convince Houston to trade up to No. 1 to get him.
Or maybe they're taking Stroud, and these rumors are the result of what happens when you have months of content to fill in the NFL Draft Machine, and you get bored. Or maybe it'll be Young. I don't know.
The only thing I know for sure is this is my final mock before the NFL Draft finally (mercifully) takes place, so if there's ever a time to stand firm on what I think will happen, this is it. I'm leaving Stroud at No. 1.
Remember: there are only 31 selections in this mock draft because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering.
For more extensive draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our new weekly podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
As I said, I'm prepared to look like a moron for this. It's not that I don't think Bryce Young is great, but Stroud matches so much more of the criteria Frank Reich has looked for in a QB.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
I've said it plenty of times before, but if Young were a couple of inches taller and a few pounds heavier, he'd be the first QB off the board without question. His size is the only thing that causes teams to show concern.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
The Cardinals may want to trade down, but the sense I get is there aren't many teams willing to move up to this spot to take a QB who isn't named Young or Stroud. So the Cardinals will have to settle for an elite pass-rushing prospect!
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Round 1 - Pick 4
There is the possibility the Colts don't take a QB here, but if they do, everything I've heard indicates Richardson would be the choice over Will Levis. Richardson is the most tantalizing prospect in this class.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Some teams may have concerns about Jalen Carter, but considering Seattle values its lines and has an extra first-round pick that affords them the opportunity to "take a chance," I'm convinced this is as far as Carter drops.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
I had Witherspoon going to Detroit in my last mock, and that was before the Lions traded Jeff Okudah to the Falcons. Now I'm even more confident corner is the pick here. If that's the case, Witherspoon makes a lot of sense. Grabbing Kerby Joseph from Illinois last year worked out, and Witherspoon is the tough, instinctual competitor you long for at corner.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
I had a Raiders fan yell at me for having the team take a tackle here in the last mock. They told me the Raiders would never draft a tackle at this spot. If that's the case, I'm not the one you should be yelling at. Anyway, if I'm the Raiders, I take Skoronski here! The arms are a concern, but he's so skilled and athletic that there's a good chance it won't matter.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Nolan Smith is one of the most polarizing prospects in this draft. Some people I talk to are in love with him, while others think he's a great kid and have no idea where they'd put him. Perhaps the Falcons are one of the teams that love him and believe he can have a Micah Parsons-like impact to their pass rush.
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Mock Trade from
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 9
The Bucs move up to get their QB. Perhaps they'd be better off waiting until next spring to get their QB, but have you seen the NFC South? It's probably going to be hard to tank in that division. Anyway, Levis is another polarizing prospect. You're definitely aiming more for the player you saw in 2021 than in 2022.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
The closer we get to the draft, the more buzz I hear about Deonte Banks. He had incredible testing numbers and is a tremendous athlete. While there are some technique concerns, they're the kind that can be fixed with coaching.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Johnson doesn't have a ton of experience at tackle, as he spent the 2021 season at guard, but he's a safe bet to be a solid NFL player at the position. There could be some growing pains, but the finished product will be worth it.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
Teams are always scared of foot injuries since they can sometimes be a long-term issue, but I don't get the sense anybody is too concerned about the broken foot Wilson suffered late in 2022. He's big, long, and attacks relentlessly. Sometimes a bit too much, honestly. Bro, stop beating up the tackle and go get the QB!
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Round 1 - Pick 13
I wonder if Wright is tapped out, which could hurt his stock, but he's a solid player with a ton of experience playing both left and right tackle. He also improved with each season and had to deal with some of the best edge rushers in the country playing in the SEC. He's prepared for what he's going to see in the NFL.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
If you're serious about Mac Jones, you have to give him weapons, and if Bill O'Brien is going to run the offense Jones excelled in at Alabama, Quentin Johnston is a great fit. He's not a blazer, but he has a way of keeping defenders off balance with seemingly supernatural stop-and-startability.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Van Ness reminds me a lot of a former Packers pass-rusher, Clay Matthews. Van Ness isn't as explosive as Matthews, but he's bigger and moves very well for a man his size and is still learning the position. There's plenty of potential remaining to be tapped.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
I'm not as high on Gonzalez as a lot of others. I understand his size, athleticism and demeanor are outstanding, but there's not enough evidence of his playmaking ability to get me to buy in. That aside, he's still a hell of a corner, and while others have higher ceilings, I won't blame anybody for taking the chance on Gonzalez.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
The Steelers need to improve their offensive line if Kenny Pickett and the offense is going to reach its full potential, and Jones has the chance to be a franchise tackle. He's not huge but has long arms and moves his feet very well. He also has a strong desire to beat the hell out of defenders, which is always a plus in my book.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
I felt the 2022 season was Murphy's worst season at Clemson (he finished with six sacks and 21 hurries anyway), and I think a lot of that can be pinned on his DC Brent Venables leaving to take over at Oklahoma. Murphy's a talented player with size and speed that can't be taught. He reminds me a bit of Kayvon Thibodeaux.
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Mock Trade from
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 - Pick 19
The Bears are open to trading down, and with both Jalen Carter and Peter Skoronski off the board in this mock, that's what they do. The Bears took two defensive backs with their first two picks last year, and while they need help on the lines, they still need help in the secondary too. Porter fits the bill of what the Bears value at the spot.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
As I said with the Jalen Carter pick, the Seahawks value the lines of scrimmage, and I can imagine Pete Carroll chewing his gum into dust while watching tape of Torrence. He's a people mover who will fit in well with the Seattle tries to do on offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Mayer is not the athlete other tight ends in this class are, but he's the most complete tight end in the class. Every defense Notre Dame faced last season knew Mayer was the sole option in the passing game, but it didn't stop him from producing. He won't turn a five-yard route into a 75-yard TD at any point in his career, but he'll turn a lot of them into first downs.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
I remain The Biggest Cam Smith Fan On The Planet. I'll admit he wasn't as good in 2022 as he was in 2021, but I don't believe he was fully healthy in 2022. And the guy in 2021 was incredible. He possesses tremendous instincts and a knack for finding the football.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
The Vikings bid farewell to Adam Thielen and replace him with a player who will step right into the role he filled but probably be more productive doing so than Thielen has been the last couple of years.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
I've come close to putting Brents in previous mocks, but I pulled the trigger this time. Brents is a tremendous athlete that comes in a 6-3 frame with mile-long arms. His 82 ⅝-inch wingspan ranks in the 99th percentile of Mockdraftable's database of all corner prospects.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Another player I haven't had in previous mocks whom I believe has a legitimate shot at sneaking into the late-first round. Avila would be a good fit in New York from a talent, fit and need standpoint. You're surprised by how quick he moves considering he's so massive.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
LaPorta is not the typical Iowa tight end. While players like George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson were great blockers, LaPorta is lacking in that department. However, his ability after the catch is in line with what you see from Kittle in San Francisco, though he's not as violent of a runner with the ball. Of course, few are.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
When healthy, there are few players with Bryan Bresee's combination of size and athleticism. The problem is he hasn't been on the field as much as you'd like him to be in recent years. Still, he's the kind of talent worth taking a shot on late in the first and would be an excellent addition to Buffalo's rotation up front.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Speaking of freakish athletes on the interior of a defensive line, Mazi Smith can probably deadlift a semi if he wants to. Probably not going to be a disruptive pass-rusher from the interior, but he moves well enough that he'll be far more than a one-gap nose tackle.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
Is he a tackle or an end? It's a legitimate question some teams don't feel like they have an answer for, but there's no questioning Adebawore's athleticism. The guy ran a 4.49 40 with a 37.5 vertical at the combine. He's a freak, and he'll be a valuable player. I can only imagine what he'll look like on the Superdome turf after playing his college ball on the grasslands masquerading as a football field at Northwestern.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
It would be out of character for the Eagles to take an RB in the first round, but it's their second pick, and they do have a need at the spot. Plus, you know, Bijan Robinson is really freaking good. Putting him in a backfield with the newly-paid Jalen Hurts would give the Eagles an incredible collection of playmakers on offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
He doesn't have the quickest feet, which could be an impediment at the NFL level, but he didn't allow a QB hit, let alone a sack, on 394 dropbacks last season. Also, he makes up for his lack of quickness with strength and intelligence. Oh, and the fact he's 6-8 and had a 7-6 wingspan doesn't hurt, either.
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