Do you think Ryan Poles and the Chicago Bears realize the damage they've done to the Mock Draft Industrial Complex? Do they care? Once the Bears clinched the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, a world of endless possibilities opened up for mock drafters such as myself.
Would the Bears trade Justin Fields and replace him with a new QB? Probably not, but what if!? Besides, even if they had no intention of moving on from Fields, we knew there was no way they'd sit at No. 1 with so many QB-hungry teams around salivating at the chance to move up.
Every new mock could feature new teams trading up and shifting the course of the entire draft! But then the Bears traded the pick to Carolina, and no matter what Carolina says, we all know it has no intention of moving down. If you're open to the idea of trading back down, you don't make that move so far ahead of time and give up what the Panthers gave up.
As a result, it takes a lot of the drama out of the mock draft process. We all know the first two picks will be QBs now. We just don't know which ones. Well, you don't know. I definitely do, and if you don't believe me, keep reading to find out.
Remember: there are only 31 selections in this mock draft because the Dolphins were stripped of their first-round pick due to tampering.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our new weekly podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman.
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
OK, so I don't actually know which QBs will go with the first two picks, but Frank Reich's history leads me to believe Stroud will be his preferred choice. Stroud isn't the fastest QB in this class. He doesn't have the strongest arm in this class. He's not the best improviser in this class. But he's the best pure passer in this class by a mile.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
I've said it before and will say it again. If Bryce Young were 6-2, he'd be the consensus No. 1 pick, no questions asked. But he's not, and size concerns are legitimate when considering the NFL is filled with large men moving at high speed with the intention to prevent you from doing the same. But Young is so talented, intelligent and electric that I don't know how the Texans can pass him up.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
I can see Arizona trading down, but with Stroud and Young off the board, will a team be willing to meet the price to move up for a shot at drafting Anthony Richardson or Will Levis? And should Arizona pass up on the chance to draft Will Anderson?
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Round 1 - Pick 4
I'm fairly confident that unless the Colts acquire Lamar Jackson or something, they will take a QB here. Gardner Minshew isn't the long-term answer, but he allows you to bring Richardson along slowly while not being a significant roadblock to keeping him off the field if he earns the chance. A lot has to go right for Richardson to reach his potential, but the potential is franchise-changing.
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From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
The thing about this EDGE rusher class is that it's so deep there isn't a consensus No. 2. Hell, according to some, there isn't a consensus No. 1. I'm not in that boat, as I believe Will Anderson is the clear top dog, but it's anybody's guess after that. Seattle needs pass-rush help, and Murphy is very enticing, has improved every year, and works his butt off.
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From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
Carter's legal issues are no longer a problem, and I'm not sure any NFL team was as concerned about them as they were about his performance at his pro day. Still, I don't expect he'll fall too far in the draft, and he fills a need for Detroit in the middle of its defensive line.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Johnson is my top offensive tackle in the class. The Raiders could go QB here if they're in love with Will Levis, but Levis doesn't strike me as a Josh McDaniels QB. Plus, the addition of Jimmy G suggests that the Raiders are looking to make a playoff run now, and addressing their OL is a better way to do so than drafting a QB here.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Again, the EDGE rusher class is deep, and Wilson could be the first off the board. In this mock, he's heading to Atlanta. The Falcons have restocked their secondary and OL in free agency, leading me to believe this is the area they'll focus on in the first round.
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From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
Last season the Bears drafted Braxton Jones in the fifth round, and he started every game at left tackle. Braxton's closest comp on Mockdraftable (a database that compares players based on their performance at the combine)? It's Georgia's Broderick Jones. Jones is agile, athletic, and has long arms. Traits Bears GM Ryan Poles seems to admire in an offensive lineman.
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From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
Like nearly everybody else, I love everything about Skoronski but his arms. That said, I'm not convinced he can't stick at left tackle. If he can't, he could quickly prove to be one of the best guards in the league. Philly has no glaring needs and emphasizes the lines in the draft.
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Mock Trade from
Tennessee Titans
Round 1 - Pick 11
With Levis falling, the Commanders make a move before a few other QB-needy teams can snatch him. Personally, I think the Commanders would be better served to "tank" in 2023 and go after a top QB in next year's class, but nothing about the current regime leads me to believe that's in consideration. They like Sam Howell, but they don't love him.
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From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
The Texans have a lot of needs, and with their first two picks, add potential franchise cornerstones in Bryce Young and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN is my top receiver in the class, and while I've been wrong plenty of times before, those who disagree with me on this are overthinking it.
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Round 1 - Pick 13
Jones isn't the quickest mover, but he's an absolute mountain of a human being and won't be easy for any defender to get around. He measured 6'8 and 374 pounds at the combine with a wingspan of 87 ⅞ inches (7'4). I know we're all still waiting for the Aaron Rodgers trade to become official, but once it does, the offensive line becomes New York's top priority.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
Witherspoon's stock is falling slightly since he wasn't able to perform at the combine or Illinois' pro day due to a hamstring injury, but it won't drop too far. The tape speaks for itself, and Illinois coach Bret Bielema spent time on the Patriots staff and will provide Bill Belichick with all the intel he needs on the player he's getting.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Assuming Aaron Rodgers is gone, the Packers look to surround Jordan Love with as many weapons as possible to help him succeed. Johnston is a good player who would be an excellent complement in the passing game to last year's top pick Christian Watson. Plus, it would be funny for the Packers to draft a WR in the first round for the first time since 2002 immediately after Rodgers leaves.
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Mock Trade from
Washington Commanders
Round 1 - Pick 16
The Titans moved down a few spots in the trade with Washington and are still able to address their need at tackle with Tennessee Volunteer Darnell Wright. Like Skoronski, his arm length is a concern, but he moves well and has experience playing both tackle spots.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
I like Gonzalez, but do have some concerns about his playmaking ability. He had four interceptions last season, but they're the only interceptions of his career, and two came in one game against his former team Colorado (one of the worst teams in the country). That said, everything else is wonderful. He's big, long, and not afraid to make a tackle.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
The Lions need a bigger-bodied target in the receiving game, but there isn't an obvious choice at WR. So why not go with a big-bodied tight end who is just as effective in the passing game as an in-line blocker? Mayer is the type of player I can see the Lions appreciating. He's a similar player to T.J. Hockenson, but without what would've been nearly a $10 million cap hit in 2023.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Baker Mayfield isn't the answer, but there isn't a QB here worth taking. Instead, the Bucs look to address the offensive line and can find a different QB later or perhaps move into the 2023 season with an eye on the 2024 draft.
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Round 1 - Pick 20
If Porter is the first corner off the board, I won't be surprised. In this mock, he's the third and heading to Seattle, which adds another solid piece to its defense following the Myles Murphy pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Pass-rusher may not be considered the biggest need here, but have you seen how much worse the Chargers' defense is when Joey Bosa isn't playing? And have you noticed how often Joey Bosa isn't playing? I would consider landing Van Ness at this spot a prudent investment by the Chargers.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Banks has everything you want from a corner as far as size, speed and athleticism are concerned. However, there is concern about his instincts as a defensive back. He only had one full season as a starter in college, so he may have to be brought along slowly, but the potential for an All-Pro corner exists.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Justin Jefferson may be the best WR in the league, but every receiver is helped by having other weapons around them. Enter Jordan Addison, who could feast underneath. He's a natural at getting open and finding seams in the defense, and there will be plenty for him to find in Minnesota's offense.
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Round 1 - Pick 24
I haven't been shy about my feelings for Cam Smith in any of my mocks. He could be the No. 1 corner in this class, and if he isn't, I don't think the gap is nearly as wide as what I see in most mocks. That said, I have not heard many other people who share my line of thought, so it's difficult to mock him any higher than the late first.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
The Giants have done a lot of work in free agency but could still use more help in the secondary. Branch is the best safety in this class and has proven over his time at Alabama he can work in the slot. In other words, the Giants may be able to address two needs at once with this pick.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
The Cowboys have a talented roster, but I can't help but shake the feeling they look thin on the interior of their defensive line. Dallas needs a people-mover up front who can get into the backfield and help keep its linebackers clean. Enter Bresee, who is a tremendous athlete forced to miss time due to injuries in recent years.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
There is Will McDonald buzz a-buzzin'! Teams love his length, motor and upside. Buffalo could go any direction at this spot. While Bijan Robinson feels like an infinity stone pick, the Bills understand how important it is to have as many players who can get after the opposing QB as possible in the playoffs.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Signing Orlando Brown in free agency crossed a major to-do off the list and freed up the Bengals to add another piece to the offense. You won't want Kincaid in there blocking more than he needs to be, but he'd be a tremendous addition to a Bengals receiving corps already overflowing with talent.
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From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
The Saints lost quite a bit of their defensive line in free agency, and while they've picked up some players, I don't think they should stop adding to the rotation yet. Kancey is undersized but quick and disruptive.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
Last summer, The Athletic's Bruce Feldman published his annual "Freaks List," and Michigan's Mazi Smith was No. 1. He's a tremendous athlete, but, like Kancey, he's not the biggest interior lineman you'll find. Also, unlike Kancey (14.5 sacks, 27.5 TFL the last two seasons), Smith's production (0.5 sacks, 6 TFL in 30 games at Michigan) hasn't lived up to his freakishness. Still, the Eagles value their defensive line, and they value traits. I can see the Eagles taking a shot on the potential here.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Frank Clark is gone, and while the Chiefs signed Charles Omenihu to replace him, you can never have enough pass-rushers! Ojulari isn't the biggest prospect, but he has long arms, huge hands, and flies off the ball. He may be situation-specific early in his career, but he'll be productive enough to warrant it.
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