This is my final mock draft, which means good news and bad news.
The bad news first: It's as tough a year to place guys into spots as any year in my over three decades of covering the league.
The good news: This mock is done.
In the old days, I used to agonize about my final mock, hoping I could get as many right as possible. But now in my older years, I've come to realize how many people lie at this time of the year — even guys I trust. Some of the guys I've known best over the years have even given me blatantly bad information, which I went with and, of course, ended up being wrong. They heard about it.
So I trust very few.
That's why I only lean on a few people in this league for information — and then just try and figure out the rest. If I get them right, I get them right. If I don't, I don't.
I like doing my who-they-should mock draft much more because I can play general manager — and I think I have an edge on the league anyway. Kidding.
In this mock, it's basically a guessing game.
With that, here's my final mock. Eat it alive.
I know you will.
At least it's done.
For more draft content, check out our latest prospect rankings and mock drafts, as well as our NFL Draft podcast, "With the First Pick," featuring former Vikings general manager Rick Spielman. (Check out the latest episode below.)
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
From
Chicago Bears
Round 1 - Pick 1
It's not a secret anymore as to who the Panthers will be taking. Young is an outstanding passer and has a great feel for the game. But he is small. There is great risk in that.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 2
This will shock a lot of people, but it makes sense. They need to get a franchise passer and Levis has the look teams love. There was talk the Patriots loved Levis and considered trading up to get him, so it makes sense that former Pats personnel man Nick Caserio, who is running the Texans' draft room, would make this pick.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 3
They want to get out of this spot, but for this they can't. They stay put and take Johnson, who Kyler Murray is said to want. I just think they have a left tackle in D.J. Humphries, who is a good player, so where does he play? I would go defense.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 4
They have to take a quarterback and Stroud is more NFL ready than Anthony Richardson. General manager Chris Ballard might need that to keep his job. The Colts are said to want Levis, but he's gone in this mock.
| |||
From
Denver Broncos
Round 1 - Pick 5
Carter is the best player in this draft, but he comes with baggage. Seattle has never shied away from players with baggage. Pete Carroll has done a great job with guys who have an edge and/or might need a little prodding. Carter will be a steal if he lasts this long.
| |||
From
Los Angeles Rams
Round 1 - Pick 6
They need to grab a corner here with Witherspoon seeming to be more of a fit for what Dan Campbell and Aaron Glenn want than any other corner. He is tough and feisty, just like Glenn was when he played.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 7
The Raiders will consider offensive line here, but I think they need to get an elite corner. Gonzalez is an outstanding cover player who will upgrade the back end and be an immediate starter.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 8
They have been woefully bad at sacking the quarterback, so they have to figure out a way to improve that part of their defense. With a new coordinator in Ryan Nielsen, getting him a top pass-rush prospect will help. Anderson isn't Von Miller-like, but he will be a good player.
| |||
From
Carolina Panthers
Round 1 - Pick 9
They need to get better up front on the offensive line. Skoronski was a college tackle, but I think he can be an All-Pro guard. At any rate, protecting Justin Fields is a priority.
| |||
From
New Orleans Saints
Round 1 - Pick 10
This team has talent, so it can be patient if Wilson's foot isn't all the way back. He has the tools to be a dominant edge player for a long time. But some teams are concerned about his foot injury. I think the Eagles can take the risk.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 11
They could make a move up to try to get C.J. Stroud, but they are stuck in this spot for now. So I have them taking offensive lineman Broderick Jones. He can play left tackle or even guard. He's a young, athletic player who can help a unit that was dreadful last season.
| |||
From
Cleveland Browns
Round 1 - Pick 12
After taking the quarterback with the second pick, it would make sense to take a receiver with next one. Get him some playmakers to make it easy on him. Smith-Njigba is a great route runner.
| |||
From
New York Jets
Round 1 - Pick 13
Their pass rush needs some help with Rashan Gary coming off an ACL injury. Smith has the type of skills to become a player who can impact the quarterback off the edge. They took two Georgia defenders last year in the first round, so why not one more?
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 14
They have to improve their pass rush and Van Ness is a guy that they supposedly really like. He is an effort player who might play his best football on the next level, not unlike a guy named J.J. Watt did.
| |||
From
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 15
When you look at their roster, getting a big-play tight end would seem to close out what they need on offense. Rodgers loves tight ends and Mayer would fill that void. With Mekhi Becton and Max Mitchell expected back fully from injury, they have guys who can play tackle, so they pass on one here.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 16
They have to get a young corner for their secondary. Forbes a tall, thin corner who weighs 170 pounds, but he held up in the SEC. His cover skills will be a nice addition to the defense.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 17
There is talk they want to trade up to get Wright, so staying put and landing him would be huge. Wright is a mauler at right tackle who could step in and start right away and give Kenny Pickett some help up front.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 18
The Lions will not have Jameson Williams for six games, and they let D.J. Chark leave via free agency. They need help for their passing game. Flowers is an outstanding receiver who is viewed by some as the best receiver in this class.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 19
They would likely want an offensive lineman, but with the way the board played out, it makes sense to help their pass rush. Shaq Barrett is coming off injury, so taking McDonald would help give them a young player in case he's not the same.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 20
They took Jalen Carter earlier in this draft, so now they can come back and take an outside rusher to go with him. When Seattle was going good, it was always about the defensive front leading the way. The Seahawks need to get back to that, so they pass on quarterback Anthony Richardson.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 21
The best way to improve the bad run defense and help your quarterback is to run the ball. Possession matters. That's why I could see the Chargers taking Robinson here in this spot, especially since Austin Ekeler is in his final year.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 22
This might seem strange, but considering the Lamar Jackson saga and the way it's playing out, it really isn't. They could keep the tag on Jackson and he can play in 2023 while Richardson learns. Or they could simply trade him after this pick. This protects the franchise.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 23
The Vikings are said to be wanting to get a quarterback to build around for the future. Hooker is coming off an ACL, but he impressed in a big way before his injury last year. He could sit for a year behind Kirk Cousins and then take over in 2024.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 24
The word is they want one more offensive lineman to help protect Trevor Lawrence. Left tackle Cam Robinson is coming off meniscus injury and he has a $17 million cap hit in 2024. This could be a pick to protect them this season and make Harrison the starter in 2024.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 25
There is talk they are eyeing a move up for a corner, so this makes sense. Banks is a speedy cover player who would fit perfectly in their defense. They could also opt for a receiver here. They could consider Joey Porter Jr. here as well.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 26
He is a smallish defensive tackle who would be a perfect fit in the Dan Quinn defense. He can attack up the field as a rusher and really help their third-down defense. Think Grady Jarrett in Atlanta.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 27
They could pair Campbell with Matt Milano to give them a nice 1-2 punch at linebacker. Campbell has good size and he can run and would take over for Tremaine Edmunds, who they lost in free agency to the Bears.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 28
I know Bengals fans won't like the name, but if he falls this far it would make sense to take him. Porter is a long corner who would fill a need for their defense, especially with Chidobe Awuzie coming off a torn ACL.
| |||
From
San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 - Pick 29
This would fill a major need for the Saints. They lost some good defensive tackles in free agency and replaced them with guys on one-year deals. Smith would step in and give them a big, power player in the middle of their defense.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 30
The Eagles saw Chauncey Gardner-Johnson leave via free agency. Branch is the same type of player. He can do a lot of things, but I think he ultimately becomes a safety.
| |||
Round 1 - Pick 31
They get the guy I think is the best receiver in this class. Addison runs great routes and will add another big-time weapon for Patrick Mahomes. They could consider pass rusher here, but the way the board went down I went with a receiver.
|
