There are just four weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, and you can expect plenty of movement in the playoff picture to take place over the next month. As it stands now, the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are the only AFC teams to have clinched a playoff spot, as there's still much to be figured out.
If you're looking for AFC playoff projections, you've come to the right place. Below, we will discuss the current wild-card contenders, their remaining schedules and percentage chances to make the postseason. First, here are the current division leaders, and those who have already been eliminated.
Playoff simulation percentages via SportsLine
Division leaders
- Kansas City Chiefs (AFC West, 12-1)
- Buffalo Bills (AFC East, 10-3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North, 10-3)
- Houston Texans (AFC South, 8-5)
Eliminated
- Cleveland Browns (3-10)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10)
- New York Jets (3-10)
- Tennessee Titans (3-10)
- New England Patriots (3-10)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)
Wild-card contenders
10. Cincinnati Bengals (5-8)
If only the Bengals had a defense. Lou Anarumo's unit ranks bottom 10 in yards allowed per game (365.5 yards) and bottom four in scoring defense (27.7 points per game), while Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are lighting the world on fire. Burrow has now gone four straight games throwing for 300 yards and at least three touchdowns, which is tied for the second-longest streak in a season since 1970, and Chase leads the NFL in receptions (93), receiving yards (1,319) and receiving touchdowns (15).
There is a path to the playoffs for the Bengals. Unfortunately for our friends in Cincinnati, it's not likely.
Bengals path to playoffs:
- Win out to finish 9-8
- Broncos lose at least 3 games
- Dolphins lose twice
- Colts lose twice
Remaining schedule: at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers
Playoff chances: 2.2%
Final projection: 8-9, miss playoffs
9. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Miami has now won four of its last five after starting 2-6 in large part due to the Tua Tagovailoa injury. Speaking of Tagovailoa, he's completing 75.1% of his passes for 325.3 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions over the last four games. Tyreek Hill has caught four touchdown passes over his last five contests after catching just one in the first eight games of the season, and recorded season highs in targets (14) and receptions (10) last week vs. the Jets.
It appeared the Dolphins defense turned a corner in the Week 10 victory over the Los Angeles Rams, but this unit just allowed Aaron Rodgers to have his first 300-yard outing in 35 regular-season games, while Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson both crossed 100 yards receiving. Can this Dolphins team score a couple of upset victories and have some things go their way this month?
Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets
Playoff chances: 11.4%
Final projection: 8-9, miss playoffs
8. Indianapolis Colts (6-7)
There's actually a path for the Colts to steal the AFC South from the Texans, but it would likely require winning out. That's why this upcoming matchup vs. the Broncos is a big one. Indy is 3-4 on the road this season, but has won two straight.
Anthony Richardson has led two game-winning touchdown drives in his last three games, but his 47.4% completion percentage ranks last among qualified quarterbacks. It would be smart to rely on Jonathan Taylor down this stretch, as his 110.1 rushing yards per game in December or later rank most in NFL history. The Colts will also need better performances from the defense, which has allowed 375 yards of total offense in nine games this season. No other defense has allowed that many yards in that many games.
Remaining schedule: at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars
Playoff chances: 16%
Final projection: 9-8, miss playoffs
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
Can Jim Harbaugh win the College Football Playoff National Championship and the Super Bowl in back-to-back years? That would be something. Under Harbaugh and Jesse Minter, the Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL (15.9 points per game), while Justin Herbert has now gone 11 straight starts without an interception. That's the second-longest streak since 1950.
There are questions about the Chargers offense, however. Herbert's 212.6 passing yards per game mark a career low, as does his 63.9% completion percentage. Averaging 309.5 total yards per game, the Chargers own a bottom 10 offense, but they will have a chance to make a run. Maybe Ladd McConkey will be the spark plug this team needs.
Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders
Playoff chances: 95.4%
Final projection: 11-6, make playoffs
6. Denver Broncos (8-5)
Sean Payton and Bo Nix may be a dynamic duo. The Broncos have seven wins by more than one possession this season, which is tied for most in the NFL with the Bills. Nix already owns the most passing touchdowns by a Broncos rookie all time with 17, while the defense's +28 sack differential ranks No. 1 in the NFL. The Broncos have a whopping five players who have recorded at least five sacks this season. No other NFL team has four such players!
The Broncos would be in the playoffs if the season ended today at 8-5, but they can't take their foot off the gas. Potentially ending the season facing Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes (if he starts) would be a good warmup for postseason football.
Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs
Playoff chances: 77.9%
Final projection: 10-7, make playoffs
5. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
I doubt many would want to see Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the playoffs. The Ravens' 5.7 yards per rush rank second-most in NFL history, and 6.8 yards per play fourth-most all time. We know what the offense is capable of, but the defense remains a question mark. The Ravens currently rank first in rush defense (82.7 rushing yards allowed per game), and last in pass defense (264.9 passing yards allowed per game).
The Ravens will make the playoffs this year, but all that matters is what happens next. Jackson has as many MVPs as postseason victories (2-4 playoff record). Can he change the narrative?
Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns
Playoff chances: 99.2%
Final projection: 11-6, make playoffs
