dan-campbell.jpg
USATSI

NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports betting, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can't really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.

With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I'll revisit these in August before the season begins, but we'll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.

I'm using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they're released: 

Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams. 

Let's get to it.

NFC North

Detroit Lions

  • Over 10.5 (-115) / Under 10.5 (-105) 

The Detroit Lions have never felt more safe to be a good football team, at least not in my lifetime. (You can make the case for the early 90's Wayne Fontes Lions with Barry Sanders, but their win totals were always in the eight-win range and their Super Bowl odds were always like 35-1 at best.) Dan Campbell and Brad Holmes have built a winner and a team that looks like a group you can trust. When the Lions dealt Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff, they promptly rebuilt everything from the inside out and have steadily added on at various positions over the last few years. Their focus on the secondary this offseason really makes this roster complete. The Lions did outperform their win expectancy by a full two games and also managed to go 5-3 in one-score games, which is concerning from an underlying performance standpoint. Their divisional matchups are the NFC West and AFC South and they pull first-place games against the Cowboys, Bills and Buccaneers. The division looks better, too. The 2023 draft class was a revelation last year -- Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch is a ridiculous haul with Detroit's first four picks -- and should continue to progress. This core is loaded. Goff is beloved and playing the best football of his career. Everyone got paid this offseason. And the rest of the division is getting all the hype. I would take the over here, but I would rather bet the Lions +150 to win the division if I was putting down money in May, mainly because the number is so high.

Pick: Lions over 10.5 (-115)

Green Bay Packers

  • Over 9.5 (-135) / Under 9.5 (+115)

The arc of Jordan Love's 2023 season is fascinating. In *November,* we heard GM Brian Gutekunst admit he wasn't sure if Love was the quarterback of the future for Green Bay. Fast forward a few months, and people are putting Love in their top-10 QB list without blinking. His final eight games of 2023 extrapolated to 17 games would be: 70.1% completion percentage, 4,569 yards, 38 touchdowns and two interceptions. He was electric closing out the season and peaked when he walloped the Cowboys in the playoffs before nearly toppling the 49ers. If that carries over into 2024, the Packers could hoist another Lombardi and Love's absurd 12-1 preseason MVP price would be justified. There's nothing about the one-score games or the point differential that raises a red flag for the Packers. After giving up the 10th-fewest points in the league, the Packers actually fired longtime DC Joe Barry and brought in Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley (it's partially a trend, but Hafley likely wanted to get out before BC fired him for not winning at a place no one ever wins except Tom O'Brien somehow). Christian Watson allegedly figured out how to avoid hamstring injuries, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks are fantasy darlings, and the Packers swapped out Aaron Jones for Josh Jacobs and MarShawn Lloyd. Matt LaFleur quickly answered the questions about his coaching post-Aaron Rodgers. The Dolphins (home late in the year), Saints (same) and Eagles (neutral in Brazil Week 1) are insanely fortunate second-place, cross-divisional matchups. I don't have any interest in fading the Packers, but this is a really expensive price on a huge number. If this team starts 3-6 again, it would be tough to pull off a 10-win season. 

Lean: Over 9.5 (-135) 

Chicago Bears

  • Over 8.5 (-165) / Under 8.5 (+140) 

Here comes the Bears Hype Train, full steam down the tracks once again. You can argue it makes more sense this year than in the past three (?) or five (?) or whatever years it's been. Caleb Williams is the No. 1 overall pick and arguably going to the best landing spot a top pick's ever had. The Bears added D.J. Moore last offseason and picked up Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze this offseason. Mix in D'Andre Swift, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, and Williams has plenty of weapons. The offensive line is much improved as well, although possibly a bit oversold in terms of its effectiveness. Defensively, the Bears appear to be taking the shape you'd want from a Matt Eberflus unit -- the addition of a few off-ball linebackers made sense for his scheme last offseason, and things really took off when Montez Sweat was acquired in a midseason trade. Chicago went 1-6 in one-score games and fell a full game short of the eight wins its point differential would project. There was a REAL weird midseason situation with defensive coordinator Alan Williams (he's now gone). As is Luke Getsy, who was replaced by new OC Shane Waldron. The Bears are -125 on DraftKings to MAKE THE PLAYOFFS ... they're *expected* to make the postseason. That's wild! There's just a lot of new parts here that are going to try and meld quickly in a short offseason with a rookie quarterback. And that gives me major pause at the idea of laying massive juice on Chicago winning nine-plus games in a really difficult division. If I were betting the under, I'd wait for it to move up some more. 

Lean: Bears Under 8.5 (+140)

Minnesota Vikings

  • Over 6.5 (-145) / Under 6.5 (+120)

The biggest red flag for the Vikings offseason isn't losing Kirk Cousins ... it's Sam Darnold being a huge favorite to start Week 1 for this team. Maybe that's not too bad, if it allows J.J. McCarthy to learn on the bench and step in if necessary, but it presupposes a lot of early-season success for Darnold in Kevin O'Connell's offense. I love the Aaron Jones add to the backfield, even if it's just for the two games against Green Bay. And Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison (and T.J. Hockenson when he's healthy) is a ridiculous receiver combo. The defense started to cook last year under Brian Flores, but losing Danielle Hunter -- even with the signing of Jonathan Greenard -- is a concern. The Vikings went 6-7 in one-score games last year, but they were coming off a historic anomaly of a one-score game season in 2022 and ended up starting four different quarterbacks. I really believe in this coaching staff and I can buy into the Darnold/J.J. combo being enough to keep this team competitive. But that's a crazy price on the over and you can't lay it. I'd probably be on the under if I was told the number was going up.

Lean: Vikings Under 6.5 (+120)