It's crunch time in the NFL.
With just two weeks left to play in the 2024 regular season, there are still five playoff spots up for grabs and plenty of teams around the NFL will be hoping that Santa delivers them one of those playoff spots this week.
At this point, the Commanders, Chargers and Broncos all have the same playoff-clinching scenario for Week 17: If they win, they'll clinch a playoff berth.
So will all three of those teams make it? Let's get to our projections and find out.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
Actually, before we get to the projections, let's take a quick look at the spots that have already been clinched:
AFC
Clinched division and playoff spot: Chiefs, Bills, Texans
Clinched playoff spot: Steelers, Ravens
NFC
Clinched playoff spot: Lions, Eagles, Vikings, Packers
Although three of the four divisions have been clinched in the AFC, every division is still up for grabs in the NFC.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 17.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West champion) |  |
| To clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, the Chiefs (14-1) just have to win one of their final two games and the computer fully expects that to happen. Remaining opponents: at Steelers, at Broncos | |
| 2. (AFC East champion) |  |
| The Bills (12-3) didn't look great in their Week 16 win over the Patriots, but the computer still views them as the Super Bowl favorite. According to our projection, the Bills have a 17% chance of winning it all, which is slightly ahead of the Chiefs, who have a 16.8% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy. Remaining opponents: Jets, at Patriots | |
| 3. (AFC North champion) |  |
| Thanks to their win over the Steelers in Week 16, the computer is now projecting that the Ravens (10-5) will end up winning the AFC North and that mostly comes down to the fact that they finish the season with a much easier schedule. Remaining opponents: at Texans, Browns | |
| 4. (AFC South champion) |  |
| The Texans (9-6) have never made it to the Super Bowl in franchise history and the computer doesn't think that drought is going to end this year. According to our projection, the Texans have just a 5.2% of winning the AFC, which is the fifth best in the conference. Remaining opponents: Ravens, at Titans | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 |  |
| The Steelers (10-5) have lost two in a row and with the Chiefs on deck, the computer is expecting that streak to reach three. If the Steelers can somehow pull off a Christmas Day upset against the Chiefs, then they'll have a chance to win the AFC North, but for now, the computer likes the Ravens. Remaining opponents: Chiefs, Bengals | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 |  |
| The Chargers' (9-5) big win over the Broncos in Week 16 means that Los Angeles just has to win one of its last two games to clinch a playoff spot and the computer thinks that is going to happen. Also, since the holidays are a time to spend with family, the computer is projecting that the Harbaugh brothers will be facing each other in the opening round of the playoffs. Remaining opponents: at Patriots, at Raiders | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 |  |
| The Broncos' (9-6) loss to the Chargers in Week 16 has put them in a precarious position: They now have to win one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth, but that won't be easy with the Chiefs and Bengals on deck. However, if the Chiefs could end up clinching the AFC's top seed in Week 17, which means they might rest their starters in Week 18. For now, the computer likes Denver's chances of getting in. According to our projection, the Broncos have an 82% chance of making the playoffs. Remaining opponents: at Bengals, Chiefs | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Dolphins (8.6%), Bengals (6.7%), Colts (5.8%), Titans (Eliminated), Browns (Eliminated), Jets (Eliminated), Jaguars (Eliminated), Patriots (Eliminated), Raiders (Eliminated)
AFC wild-card bracket projection
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Chargers at (3) Ravens
(5) Steelers at (4) Texans
Bye: (1) Chiefs
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North champion) |  |
| The Eagles' loss in Week 16 has actually given the Lions some breathing room when it comes to the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Even if the Lions lose to the 49ers this week, Detroit can still clinch the top seed with a Week 18 win over the Vikings (They can also clinch it this week with a win over the 49ers combined with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay). Remaining opponents: at 49ers, at Vikings | |
| 2. (NFC East champion) |  |
| The Eagles' loss to the Commanders in Week 16 means Philadelphia (12-3) has been virtually eliminated from getting the top seed (They have a small chance to get the top seed, and you can check out the scenario here). Even though the top seed is unlikely, the Eagles are basically a lock to win the NFC East: All they have to do is win one of their final two games. Remaining opponents: at Cowboys, Giants | |
| 3. (NFC West champion) |  |
| With four wins in a row, the Rams (9-6) are now on the cusp of clinching the NFC West and they could do that as soon as this weekend if they beat the Cardinals and the Seahawks lose to the Bears on Thursday night. Remaining opponents: Cardinals, Seahawks | |
| 4. (NFC South champion) |  |
| The Buccaneers (8-7) choked away the division lead with a loss to the Cowboys in Week 16, but the computer still thinks they're going to take home the NFC South title. The big thing working in the Bucs' favor is that the Falcons will be playing the Commanders this week while Tampa Bay will be playing Carolina. If the Bucs win out, they need the Falcons to lose just one of their final two games for Tampa Bay to win the NFC South. Remaining opponents: Panthers, Saints | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 |  |
| The Vikings (13-2) will be closing the season with the most difficult two-game stretch of any team in the NFL, but if they win both games, it will come with a sweet reward: Going 2-0 would give the Vikings the NFC North title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. Of course, the computer doesn't think that's going to happen, which is why we have the Vikings here. Remaining opponents: Packers, at Lions | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 |  |
| The Packers (11-4) could end up winning 13 games this year, which is usually enough to win your division, but in the 2024 NFC North, it's only good for third place. Although the Packers could have a slight chance to move up to the No. 5 seed, the computer has them finishing the season as the No. 6 seed in the NFC. Remaining opponents: at Vikings, Bears | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 |  |
| The Commanders (10-5) are sitting pretty right now, but things could get interesting if they lose to the Falcons on Sunday night. If Washington goes 0-2 to finish the season while the Falcons and Buccaneers go 2-0, then Washington will miss the playoffs. That being said, the computer doesn't think that's going to happen. According to our projection, the Commanders have a 91.2% chance of making the postseason. Remaining opponents: Falcons, at Cowboys | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Falcons (47.1%), Seahawks (12.7%), Cardinals (Eliminated), Cowboys (Eliminated), 49ers (Eliminated), Saints (Eliminated), Panthers (Eliminated), Bears (Eliminated), Giants (Eliminated)
NFC wild-card bracket projection
(7) Commanders at (2) Eagles
(6) Packers at (3) Rams
(5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: (1) Lions
