With the NFL season heading into Week 12, the playoff race is heating up.
If you're a fan of a team that currently has a losing record, don't give up on the season just yet, because plenty of teams have made the playoffs despite having a losing record heading into Week 12. As a matter of fact, since the NFL expanded the playoffs to 14 teams in 2020, 10 teams with a record of .500 or below heading into Week 12 ended up making the playoffs.
Here's a look at the breakdown on that:
2020: 1 (Commanders)
2021: 3 (Raiders, Eagles, 49ers)
2022: 3 (Jaguars, Chargers, Buccaneers)
2023: 3 (Rams, Buccaneers, Packers)
Does any team that's currently .500 or below have a chance of getting into the postseason this year? Let's get to this week's playoff projections and find out.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 12.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West champion) | |
| The Chiefs (9-1) lost a big showdown to the Bills in Week 12, but the computer still has Kansas City in the driver's seat to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Getting the top seed would mean home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and that would be a huge deal for a Chiefs team that's 5-0 at home this year. | |
| 2. (AFC East champion) | |
| The Bills' win over the Chiefs didn't move them up to the top spot in our projection, but it did make them the Super Bowl favorite in the AFC. According to the computer, the Bills (9-2) have an 18.6% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy, which is the highest percentage of any team in the AFC. The Chiefs (13.1%) and the Ravens (10.8%) are the only other teams in the conference above 10%. | |
| 3. (AFC North champion) | |
| The computer is finally sold on the Steelers (8-2). After watching Pittsburgh win a thriller over Baltimore in Week 11, the computer views Pittsburgh as the favorite to win the AFC North. According to our projection, the Steelers have a 69.7% chance of winning the division while the Ravens are way behind them at 30.2%. | |
| 4. (AFC South champion) | |
| The NFL can probably go ahead and start selling playoff tickets in Houston, because the computer is giving the Texans (7-4) a 96.1% chance of winning the AFC South, and if that happens, they'll get to host a wild-card game. The Texans have a two-game lead over Indianapolis, but they've already swept the Colts, so they effectively have a three-game lead. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The computer is apparently a big fan of Jim Harbaugh and the Charger (7-3). Right now, the Chargers are projected to finish as the top wild card team in the AFC, but that could change after Week 12 since the Chargers will be facing the Ravens. There will be a lot riding on the Harbaugh Bowl, which will have a huge impact on the playoff standings. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| The Ravens' loss to Pittsburgh in Week 12 did some major damage to their chances of winning the AFC North. Baltimore (7-4) might have to settle for being a wild-card team, and right now, if that happens, the computer is projecting it would have to travel to Pittsburgh for the opening round of the playoffs. Ravens vs. Steelers again? Apparently, the computer has a sense of humor. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| With their win over the Falcons in Week 11, the Broncos (6-5) took a huge step toward earning a wild card spot in the eyes of the computer. According to our projection, the Broncos have a 53.5% chance of earning the AFC's final wild card slot, which is well ahead of any team behind them, including the Colts, Bengals and Dolphins. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Colts (21.5%), Bengals (14.5%), Dolphins (13.4%), Jaguars (0.6%), Jets (0.4%), Titans (0.3%), Patriots (0.2%), Browns (0.1%), Raiders (0.0%)
Note: The Raiders aren't eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North champion) | |
| The Lions (9-1) aren't just the Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of the oddsmakers. They're also the Super Bowl favorites in the eyes of the computer. According to our projection, the Lions, who have never been to a Super Bowl, have a 21.2% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy. No other team in the NFC is even being given a 7% chance by the computer. | |
| 2. (NFC East champion) | |
| The biggest win in Week 11 belonged to the Eagles (8-2), who are now projected to win the NFC East after beating the Commanders. According to our projection, the Eagles have a 72.5% chance of winning the division, which is well ahead of the Commanders, who have just a 27.5% chance. | |
| 3. (NFC West champion) | |
| The computer is finally buying into the Cardinals (6-4). The NFC West has the tightest division in the NFL heading into Week 12 with the Cards sitting just one game ahead of the other three teams. The computer doesn't view Arizona as a lock, but right now, the Cardinals have a 48.5% chance of winning the division, which is comfortably ahead of the 49ers (21.5%), Seahawks (21.2%) and Rams (9.1%). | |
| 4. (NFC South champion) | |
| Although the Falcons (6-5) have lost two in a row, the computer still likes their chances of winning the NFC South. According to our projection, the Falcons have a 72.2% chance of taking home the division title. However, you'll definitely want to keep an eye on the Buccaneers, who have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The computer thinks there's a good chance that the Vikings (8-2) will end up finishing with at least 12 wins this year, but the bad news is that won't get them a division title. The computer doesn't think the Vikings will be able to overtake the Lions, which means Minnesota will be stuck in this spot, which is the first wild-card slot in the NFC. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| The Commanders (7-4) have struggled some since Jayden Daniels got banged up with a rib injury in Week 7, but despite that, the computer still views them as a virtual lock to the make the playoffs. Although they've lost two games in a row, our projection is still giving them a 93.1% chance of making the postseason. One thing working in the Commanders' favor is that they have the fifth-easiest remaining strength of schedule. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The Packers have a 81.7% chance of getting into the playoffs, but that doesn't mean they're a lock just yet. The 49ers are the first team out in our projection, but that could change drastically on Sunday due to the fact that San Francisco and Green Bay are playing each other. If the 49ers win, the Packers will go from having a firm grasp on the seventh spot to barely hanging on. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): 49ers (32.1%), Buccaneers (28.2%), Seahawks (26.8%), Rams (10.2%), Saints (7.1%), Bears (0.7%), Panthers (0.3%), Cowboys (0.1%), Giants (0.0%)
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Ravens at (3) Steelers
(5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Packers at (2) Eagles
(6) Commanders at (3) Cardinals
(5) Vikings at (4) Falcons
Bye: Lions