Through the first 12 weeks of the NFL season, we still haven't seen a single team clinch a playoff berth yet, but that could change this week.
Heading into Week 13, the Lions, Bills and Chiefs could all clinch a spot in the postseason if a few things fall into place for them. Buffalo and Kansas City essentially have the same path: If the Dolphins lose to the Packers on Thursday night, then both the Bills and Chiefs will clinch a spot with a win this week (The Chiefs play the Raiders on Friday while the Bills play the 49ers on Sunday).
If the Bills get in, they'd become the first team in 15 years (2009 Colts) to clinch a division title with five weeks left in the season.
So who else will be making the postseason? Let's get to this week's playoff projections and find out.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 13.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West champion) | |
| The Chiefs (10-1) didn't look impressive during a 30-27 win over the Panthers, but the computer isn't punishing them for their ugly win. According to our projection, the Chiefs are still expected to land the top seed in the AFC. | |
| 2. (AFC East champion) | |
| Although the computer doesn't have the Bills (9-2) getting the top seed, it does view them as the Super Bowl favorite in the AFC. According to our projection, the Bills have an 18.3% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy, which is the second-highest in the NFL -- behind only the Lions -- and well ahead of the Chiefs, who have a 13.2% chance of winning it hall. | |
| 3. (AFC North champion) | |
| The Steelers' surprising loss to the Browns in Week 12 threw a wrench into the computer's AFC North projections. Last week, the Steelers were projected to win it, but the Ravens (8-4) are now in the driver's seat after beating the Chargers on Monday night. According to our projection, the Ravens have a 54.1% chance of winning the division, which is slightly ahead of the Steelers, who are at 45.9%. | |
| 4. (AFC South champion) | |
| The Texans (7-5) hit a major speed bump in Week 12 with a shocking loss to the Titans, but the computer doesn't think that's going to hurt their chances of winning the AFC South. According to our projection, the Texans still have a 94.1% chance of winning the division, which means all they have to do is not collapse over the final five weeks. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The Steelers (8-3) took the biggest drop this week. With their shocking loss to the Browns, the Steelers are no longer viewed as the favorite in the AFC North. Instead, the computer thinks the Steelers will end up in the first wild-card spot out of the AFC and the computer is seems pretty confident about that. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| The Chargers (7-4) lost to the Ravens in Week 12, but the computer was expecting that to happen, so not much changed here with their playoff chances. According to our projection, the Chargers have a 96.9% chance of making the postseason. Also, the computer apparently loves family drama, because it has Jim Harbaugh facing John Harbaugh in the wild-card round. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| In our first projection of the year, the Broncos (7-5) were in this spot, but just barely. Three weeks later, the computer now feels a lot more confident about the Broncos. According to our projection, Denver has a 67.8% chance of making the playoffs, which is WAY ahead of any other AFC playoff contender. The Dolphins are the next closest, but their chances are sitting at just 15.7%. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Dolphins (15.7%), Colts (11.5%), Bengals (11.3%), Titans (1.3%), Jaguars (1.2%), Browns (0.2%), Jets (0.1%), Patriots (0.0%), Raiders (0.0%)
Note: The Raiders and Patriots aren't eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on both of them.
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North champion) | |
| The Lions (10-1) have never won a Super Bowl, but the computer definitely likes their chances of taking home the Lombardi Trophy this year. The Lions have a 19.9% chance of winning it all, which is more than double the next closest team in the NFC (The Eagles are at 8.8%). | |
| 2. (NFC East champion) | |
| With the Commanders losing in Week 12 and the Eagles winning, the computer now views Philadelphia as a virtual lock to win the NFC East. According to our projection, the Eagles (9-2) have a 95.3% chance of taking home the division title. | |
| 3. (NFC South champion) | |
| The Falcons (6-5) didn't even play in Week 12, but they still moved up a spot in our projection due to all the chaos in the NFC West. Right now, the computer is projecting that the Falcons will win the division, but the Buccaneers are coming on strong. The Falcons have a 62.1% chance of winning the NFC South while the Bucs are sitting at 34%. | |
| 4. (NFC West champion) | |
| The computer almost malfunctioned trying to figure out who's going to win the NFC West. At this point, the computer is giving a slight edge to the Seahawks (6-5), who have a 40.4% chance of winning the division, but the Cardinals are right behind them at 39.4%. Although the Rams and 49ers are only a game back, both teams are being given less than a 12% chance of taking home the NFC West crown. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The Vikings (9-2) could end up with the second best record in the NFC, but even if that happens, the computer still thinks they'll be stuck playing in the wild-card round. The computer just doesn't think the Vikings will be able to overtake the Lions. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| One big reason Green Bay (8-3) is projected to finish behind the Vikings is because the Packers have the seventh-most difficult remaining strength of schedule. Not only do they still have to play Detroit, Minnesota and Seattle, but this week, the Packers have to play a hot Dolphins team that has won three games in a row. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The Commanders (7-5) choked away a game against the Cowboys on Sunday, but the computer doesn't think it was enough to choke away a playoff spot. According to our projection, the Commanders have a 71% chance of making the playoffs and no team behind them even has a 50% chance heading into Week 13. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Buccaneers (46.7%), Cardinals (43.7%), Seahawks (16.5%), Rams (8.5%), Saints (6.2%), Cowboys (1.4%), Panthers (0.1%), Bears (0.1%), Giants (0.0%)
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Chargers at (3) Ravens
(5) Steelers at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Commanders at (2) Eagles
(6) Packers at (3) Falcons
(5) Vikings at (4) Seahawks
Bye: Lions