2024 NFL playoff picture: Projecting the 14-team bracket; Ravens, Steelers to square off in wild-card round?

Also, a look at every team's chances of getting in the postseason

By John Breech

Dec 4, 2024 at 9:11 am ET • 6 min read

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As we get ready to head into Week 14, there are still a total of 12 playoff spots that will be up for grabs in the NFL over the final five weeks of the season.

In the AFC, two spots have already been clinched with the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills both punching their ticket to the postseason in Week 13. The Bills clinched the AFC East, which means they'll definitely be playing at least one home game in January. Based on the blizzard we saw in Buffalo in Week 13, that's a home-field advantage that could come in handy.

In the NFC, all seven playoff spots are up for grabs, although we could see that change in Week 14 as the Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles all have clinching scenarios this week.

So who will actually be making the postseason? Let's get to this week's playoff projections and find out.

These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.

With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 13.

AFC playoff projection

1. (AFC West champion)	Chiefs
The Chiefs (11-1) came close to losing another game in Week 13, but they didn't lose and that's all the computer cares about. The computer does think it's going to be a close race for the top seed in the AFC, but ultimately, the Chiefs are projected to get the top spot in the conference.
2. (AFC East champion)	Bills
The Bills (10-2) are officially the Super Bowl favorites, according to our computer. With Detroit and Kansas City both playing close games in Week 13, the computer now views Buffalo as the best all-around team. According to our projection, the Bills have a 20.8% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy, which is ahead of both the Lions (18.5%) and the Chiefs (12.3%).
3. (AFC North champion)	Steelers
With just five games left to play in the season, the computer views the Steelers (9-3) as the heavy favorites to win the AFC North. According to our projection, the Steelers have a 75% chance of winning the division while the Ravens are sitting at just 25%. If the Steelers hang on, it would mark the first time since 2020 that they've won the division.
4. (AFC South champion)	Texans
The computer pretty much has the Texans (8-5) here by default since none of the other teams in the AFC South are any good. According to our projection, the Texans have a 97.6% chance of winning the division, and if that happens, it's probably safe to assume that the NFL will be giving them the 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday game in the wild-card round.
5. Wild Card 1	Chargers
If the Chargers (8-4) can stun the Chiefs this week, that could open the door for them to steal the AFC West, but for now, the computer has them as the top wild card team in the AFC.
6. Wild Card 2	Ravens
The computer loves chaos, and chaos would be giving us the Ravens (8-5) vs. the Steelers in the wild-card round. Right now, that's exactly what the computer is projecting.
7. Wild Card 3	Broncos
We've been doing these projections since the first week of November and the computer has had the Broncos in this spot the entire time. The only thing that's changed is that the computer went from kind of confident to incredibly confident that Denver will get this spot, giving them a 79.6% chance.

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Colts (14.9%), Dolphins (7.6%), Bengals (1.4%), Titans (0.2%), Browns (0.0%), Jets (0.0%), Jaguars (Eliminated, Patriots (Eliminated), Raiders (Eliminated)

Note: The Browns and Jets aren't eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on both of them. And I know what you're thinking, I also can't believe the computer has given up on Jameis Winston.

NFC playoff projection

1. (NFC North champion)	Lions
The Lions (11-1) are viewed as the heavy favorite to come out of the NFC. According to our projection, Detroit has a 35.5% change of winning the conference title, which is well ahead of the Eagles (24.5%), who have the next best chance.
2. (NFC East champion)	Eagles
Two weeks ago, the computer viewed the NFC East as a toss up, but that's not the case anymore. The computer is convinced the Eagles are going to win it. As a matter off fact, the NFL might want to start selling playoff tickets in Philadelphia because the computer views the Eagles (10-2) as a virtual lock to win the division, giving them a 97.1% chance.
3. (NFC West champion)	Seahawks
The Seahawks (7-5) might have been the biggest winner of Week 13. Not only is the computer now projecting them to win the NFC West, but Seattle is also being projected to get the No. 3 seed. Of course, if the Seahawks want to win the division, they're going to have to take care of business this week against Arizona. The Seahawk currently have a 53.5% chance of winning the division, but that will shoot up to 82.3% if they beat the Cardinals on Sunday.
4. (NFC South champion)	Falcons
The Falcons are getting closer to choking away the NFC South. For the past few weeks, the computer was confident that Atlanta would win the division, but now, it's essentially a toss up with Tampa Bay. The Falcons are being given a 50.5% chance of winning the division while the Buccaneers are right behind them at 48.8%. The big advantage for the Falcons is that they swept Tampa Bay, which means the Bucs will have to finish a full game ahead of them in the standings if they want to steal the division.
5. Wild Card 1	Vikings
The Vikings (10-2) are only a game behind Detroit in the NFC North, but the computer still isn't giving them much of a chance to win the division. According to our projection, the Lions have a 78.5% chance of taking home the NFC North crown while the Vikings (15.1%) and Packers (6.4%) lag way behind.
6. Wild Card 2	Packers
The Packers (9-3) could throw a giant wrench into the NFC North race with a win over the Lions on Thursday night, but for now, the computer is assuming there will not be a wrench thrown. Although the computer isn't giving the Packers a chance to win the division, Green Bay does have the third best chance to win the NFC according to our projection (Behind only Detroit and Philadelphia).
7. Wild Card 3	Commanders
The computer doesn't think there's going to be very much drama when it comes to the wild-card race in the NFC. According to our projection, the Commanders (8-5) have an 82.8% chance of getting in the playoffs, which means the only drama in the NFC will come in the race to win the NFC West and NFC South.

Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Falcons (52.5%), Cardinals (27.3%), Rams (17%), 49ers (4.9%), Cowboys (1.7%), Saints (0.9%), Panthers (0.0%), Bears (0.0%), Giants (Eliminated)