As the NFL season gets ready to head into Week 15, there have only been four playoff spots clinched, which means there are still 10 up for grabs.
The Chiefs and Bills have clinched a spot in the AFC while the Lions and Eagles have punched their ticket in the NFC. In Week 15, we could see four more teams join them with the Vikings, Packers, Texans and Steelers all having the ability to clinch a playoff spot (The Steelers and Vikings simply need to win this week to clinch a postseason berth while the Texans and Packers will need some help to clinch a spot this week. You can check out all of the clinching scenarios here).
With all this clinching talk, you might be wondering who's actually going to make the postseason, so we're going to try and figure that out by making some playoff projections.
These projections are based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh plugs some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulates the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we then project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections heading into Week 15.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West champion) | |
| It's the same story every week with the Chiefs (12-1): They come close to losing, but they don't actually lose and that's all the computer cares about. With the Bills losing in Week 14, the computer feels like the Chiefs are going to comfortably take home the top seed in the AFC. Remaining opponents: at Browns, Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos | |
| 2. (AFC East champion) | |
| Although the Bills (10-3) lost on Sunday, the computer still views them as the Super Bowl favorite in the AFC. According to our projection, the Bills have a 16.9% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy, which is slightly ahead of the Chiefs (14.7%). Remaining opponents: at Lions, Patriots, Jets, at Patriots | |
| 3. (AFC North champion) | |
| With just four games left to play in the season, the computer doesn't view the AFC North as a toss-up anymore. According to our projection, the Steelers (10-3) have an 82.8% chance of winning the division, which makes them the heavy favorite. One reason the Ravens still have life, though, is because the Steelers have the second-most difficult remaining strength of schedule. Remaining opponents: at Eagles, at Ravens, Chiefs, Bengals | |
| 4. (AFC South champion) | |
| The computer has pretty much handed the the AFC South to the Texans. (8-5). According to our projection, the Texans have a 97.4% chance of winning the division. The reason their percentage is so high is because they swept the Colts, so Indianapolis would have to finish one game AHEAD of Houston in the standings to win the division. Remaining opponents: Dolphins, at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The Ravens (8-5) better not overlook the Giants this week, which could be easy to do: Not only is New York a bad team, but Baltimore could be looking ahead to its huge Week 16 showdown against the Steelers. If the Ravens want to have any shot of winning the AFC North, they need to win this week and next week. Remaining opponents: at Giants, Steelers, at Texans, Browns | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| The computer views the Chargers (8-5) as a lock to make the playoffs, and according to our projection, it's looking more and more like the Chargers are going to end up as the sixth seed. If that happens, we could see a Harbaugh bowl in the wild-card round if the Ravens can get the third seed by stealing the AFC North from the Steelers. Remaining opponents: Buccaneers, Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The Broncos (8-5) are on the cusp of earning a playoff berth and they can take a huge step toward making that happen if they can beat the Colts this week. The computer views the Colts as the biggest threat to Denver for the final wild-card spot in the AFC. Remaining opponents: Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, Chiefs | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Colts (16%), Dolphins (11.4%), Bengals (2.2%), Titans (Eliminated), Browns (Eliminated), Jets (Eliminated), Jaguars (Eliminated), Patriots (Eliminated), Raiders (Eliminated)
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North champion) | |
| Last week, the computer viewed the Bills as the overall favorite to win the Super Bowl, but after Buffalo's loss, the computer now views the Lions (12-1) as the overall favorite. According to our projection, Detroit has a 20.3% chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy. Only one other team in the NFC is even above 8% and that's the Eagles, who have an 11.2% chance of winning it all. Remaining opponents: Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, Vikings | |
| 2. (NFC East champion) | |
| The Eagles (11-2) are currently one game behind the Lions and that's where the computer thinks they'll be at the end of the season. According to our projection, the Eagles are going to be stuck with the two-seed even though there's a good chance they might finish 14-3 or even 15-2. Remaining opponents: Steelers, Commanders, at Cowboys, Giants | |
| 3. (NFC West champion) | |
| The Seahawks (8-5) are in first place in the NFC West, but this division race isn't over yet and that's mainly because Seattle has the eighth-toughest remaining strength of schedule. According to our projection, the computer views the division as a two-horse race between the Rams and the Seahawks, but right now, Seattle has the slight edge. Remaining opponents: Packers, Vikings, at Bears, at Rams | |
| 4. (NFC South champion) | |
| One month ago, it looked like the Falcons were a lock to win the NFC South, but with Atlanta losing four in a row, the computer now views the Buccaneers (7-6) as the favorite in the division. According to our projection, the Bucs have 70.6% chance of winning the NFC South, which is WELL ahead of the Falcons, who are sitting 28.6%. Remaining opponents: at Chargers, at Cowboys, Panthers, Saints | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The Vikings (11-2) are sitting in the fifth spot right now, but if they win their next three games, there's a very real chance that the NFC North title will come down to their Week 18 game in Detroit. Remaining opponents: Bears, at Seahawks, Packers, at Lions | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| With nine wins, the Packers (9-4) are a virtual lock to make the playoffs at this point. However, unlike the Vikings, the computer doesn't think Green Bay has any shot of winning the division. As a matter of fact, the computer is giving them a 0.0% chance, so the Packers are just going to have to settle for getting the second wild-card spot in the NFC. Remaining opponents: Dolphins, at Chiefs, Ravens, at Titans | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| At this point, the computer doesn't think there's going to be any drama in the NFC wild-card race. The top two wild-card spots will go to two NFC North teams and the Commanders will land the final spot. According to our projection, Washington (8-5) has an 88.6% chance of getting in the playoffs, which means the only drama in the NFC will come in the race to win the NFC West and NFC South. Remaining opponents: at Saints, Eagles, Falcons, at Cowboys | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (with percentage chance of getting into the playoffs in parentheses): Falcons (30.8%), Rams (26.6%), 49ers (4.2%), Cardinals (3.7%), Saints (1.0%), Cowboys (0.3%), Panthers (0.0%), Bears (0.0%), Giants (Eliminated)
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Chargers at (3) Steelers
(5) Ravens at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Commanders at (2) Eagles
(6) Packers at (3) Seahawks
(5) Vikings at (4) Buccaneers
Bye: Lions