With nine weeks of the NFL season in the books, we're halfway through the year. That makes right now the perfect time to start talking about the playoffs.
The beauty of the NFL playoff race heading into Week 10 is that all 32 teams are currently still alive, which means that yes, even the Panthers and Patriots could make the postseason. I'm guessing they won't, but they could, and that's what matters here.
To help you figure out who's going to make the playoffs this year, we're going to be publishing a projection every week for the rest of the season. These projections will be based on data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine. Each week, Oh will plug some numbers into his SportsLine computer and simulate the rest of the NFL season. Using those numbers, we'll project the 14 teams we expect to make the playoffs.
With that in mind, let's get to the projections.
AFC playoff projection
| 1. (AFC West Champion) | |
| When it comes to projecing what the Chiefs are going to do, the computer doesn't even have to try anymore. At 8-0, the Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the NFL and the computer really likes their chances of getting the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC for the second time in three years. | |
| 2. (AFC East Champion) | |
| Bills fans can probably go print their "division champion" shirts now, because the computer views them as a virtual lock to win the AFC East. According to our projection, the Bills (7-2) have a 99.6% chance of winning the division, which is by far the highest number of any current division leader heading into Week 10. | |
| 3. (AFC North Champion) | |
| Although the Steelers are currently on top of the division, the computer loves the Ravens (6-3). According to our projection, the Ravens have a 66.6% chance of winning the AFC North, which is well ahead of the Steelers (6-2), who have just a 31.6% chance of winning the division. The computer has the Ravens finishing a full game ahead of the Steelers in the standings. | |
| 4. (AFC South Champion) | |
| When it comes to predicting who's going to win the AFC South, there's apparently not much to compute. According to our computer, the Texans (6-3) have an 88.5% chance of winning the division. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| In his first year with the Chargers, Jim Harbaugh has his team at 5-3 and the computer thinks they're almost a lock to make the postseason. Although the computer doesn't think the Chargers will catch the Chiefs in the AFC West, L.A. does have an 88.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projection. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| Mike Tomlin made a bold decision earlier this year when he decided to bench Justin Fields for Russell Wilson. The computer loved that decision, but it didn't love it enough to pick the Steelers to win the AFC North. According to our projection, the Steelers will take second in the division, which will be good enough to get them in the second wild-card spot in the AFC. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The Broncos are here right now, but they might not be when the season ends. According to the computer, there's going to be a dog fight for the final spot in the AFC with the Broncos battling the Colts and Bengals to get the last spot. The Broncos have a 48.5% chance of getting to the postseason, but Indy (34.4%) and Cincinnati (24.9%) are right behind them. If the Broncos get in, it would be their first playoff appearance since 2015 when they won the Super Bowl. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other AFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Colts (34.4%), Bengals (24.9%), Jets (10.1%), Dolphins (4.8%), Jaguars (4.6%), Titans (1.2%), Browns (0.5%), Patriots (0.1%), Raiders (0.1%).
NFC playoff projection
| 1. (NFC North Champion) | |
| The Lions (7-1) haven't earned a playoff bye since 1991, but the computer thinks that is going to be changing this year. According to our projection, the Lions are going to beat out the Commanders by one game to earn the top seed in the NFC and the first-round bye that comes with it. | |
| 2. (NFC East Champion) | |
| With the Cowboys falling apart and the Giants nowhere to be found, the NFC East seems to be down to the Commanders and Eagles. According to our projection, the Commanders have a 70.3% chance of winning the division, which is well ahead of the Eagles, who are sitting at just 29.2%. | |
| 3. (NFC South Champion) | |
| The Falcons (6-3) haven't made the playoffs since 2017, but the computer thinks that drought is going to end this year. The three other teams in the NFC South are all under .500 and because of that, the computer is giving the Falcons a 91.2% chance of winning the division, which is the highest percentage being given to any current division leader in the NFC. | |
| 4. (NFC West Champion) | |
| The 49ers (4-4) had a rough first half of the season, but with Christian McCaffrey getting set to return, the computer likes their chances of winning the NFC West. The computer views this division as a two-horse race with the 49ers being given a 46.1% chance of winning it while the Cardinals are sitting at 23%. The Rams (18.5%) and Seahawks (12.4%) are also still alive. | |
| 5. Wild Card 1 | |
| The Eagles (6-2) are being projected to finish with the third-best record in the NFC, but unfortunately for Philly, that won't mean much for them. The Eagles are being projected to finish behind the Commanders in the NFC East, which means the top wild-card spot is the best they can hope for. The good news for Eagles fans is that the computer is NOT projecting a second-half collapse like this team had last year. | |
| 6. Wild Card 2 | |
| Jordan Love has been banged up this season, but the computer still likes the Packers (6-3). According to our projection, Green Bay will be battling Minnesota for the second wild card spot in the NFC. The Packers currently have a 71.8% chance of making the playoffs. | |
| 7. Wild Card 3 | |
| The computer clearly loves the NFC North. According to our projection, that division is expected to get three playoffs teams this year. Although the computer is expecting a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the AFC, that's not the case in the NFC. The computer thinks that Minnesota will comfortably land the final wild card spot over Tampa Bay, Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams. | |
Here's a list of the playoff chances for all the other NFC teams (their percentage chances of getting into the playoffs is listed next to them in parentheses): Buccaneers (31.4%), Cardinals (29.1%), Rams (22.0%), Seahawks (18.3%), Bears (12.3%), Cowboys (5.1%), Saints (1.0%), Panthers (0.1%), Giants (0.0%).
Note: The Giants aren't eliminated from playoff contention, but their chances are listed at zero because the computer has given up on them.
Wild-card round projection
AFC
(7) Broncos at (2) Bills
(6) Steelers at (3) Ravens
(5) Chargers at (4) Texans
Bye: Chiefs
NFC
(7) Vikings at (2) Commanders
(6) Packers at (3) Falcons
(5) Eagles at (4) 49ers
Bye: Lions