College Football Playoff: Predicting a Super Bowl champion if the NFL used a 12-team model

Next week, college football's bowl season wraps up with the College Football Playoff. It's the 10th anniversary of college football's special "final four," and while it's a fun way to wrap up the season, it could be better. How could college football's playoff system improve? By adding more teams, of course. That's what will happen next year, as college football's postseason tournament increases from four teams to 12. 

What if the NFL postseason worked like college football will next year? Where we axed the divisions, axed conferences and just put the 12 best teams in the playoffs? That's what we are here to examine. Below, we will select the current 12 best teams in the NFL as if the season ended in Week 16, and examine how the playoff bracket would look and who would win the Super Bowl.

The selection process and final 12

Since there are no divisions and no conferences, our final 12 will resemble current power rankings. Our hypothetical "committee" consisted of CBS Sports senior writer Pete Prisco's power rankings, ESPN's power panel and Josh Kendall of The Athletic. I used all of their Week 17 power rankings and then acted as a fourth "member," where I made the final call on the final list.

The most debated aspects of this list will be the top four spots, seeds five through seven, and then the "first four out," so let's quickly touch on those. Our top four was generally agreed upon, except The Athletic put the Buffalo Bills as a top-four team. As the member with the final say, I disagreed with that. The general consensus includes the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions.

As for seeds five through seven, the Bills and Eagles would actually be tied if we simply added up the rankings from the three outlets, while the Cowboys were slightly behind. However, we put Dallas ahead of Philadelphia considering the former recently beat the latter by 20. The Eagles have also lost three of their past four games.

As for the first four out, we actually didn't have much disagreement. Prisco had the Jacksonville Jaguars in with the final spot based on his power rankings, but the rest of us landed on the Seattle Seahawks. I mean, Jacksonville has lost four straight games and Trevor Lawrence is injured. 

Check out where we/I landed:

Now, for how this setup works. The top four teams will receive a first-round bye, but the teams will not be reseeded following the first round. For example, the No. 1 seed is destined to face the winner of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 matchup, and the No. 4 seed will play the No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup no matter is there's an upset in the opening round or not. 

Let's take a look at our starting point. 

The bracket

• No. 12 Seahawks at No. 5 Bills (winner gets No. 4 Lions)
• No. 11 Buccaneers at No. 6 Cowboys (winner gets No. 3 Dolphins)
• No. 10 Rams at No. 7 Eagles (winner gets No. 2 49ers)
• No. 9 Chiefs at No. 8 Browns (winner gets No. 1 Ravens)

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First round

No. 12 Seahawks vs. No. 5 Bills

These are two teams that have not played in several years. Seattle just became the second team in NFL history to have a different player with a game-winning passing touchdown in the final minute of regulation in back-to-back games. The Seahawks seemingly have the pieces to make a run, but haven't really been blowing anyone out. They beat the Lions in overtime earlier this season, and of course upset the Eagles with Drew Lock a couple weeks ago.

As for the Bills, they've been up-and-down. The win over the Cowboys certainly made a statement to the league, but they did not look good against the lowly Los Angeles Chargers. Which Bills team is the real one?

I expect points in this matchup, and I'll actually take an upset here in the first game of the playoffs as DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett overwhelm Buffalo's secondary. 

Prediction: Seahawks 30, Bills 27

No. 11 Buccaneers vs. No. 6 Cowboys

A rematch from last year's postseason, where Dak Prescott defeated Tom Brady by double digits. Questions remain if Dallas is a legitimate contender, but the Cowboys possess enough firepower to move on to the next round. It's as simple as that. 

Prediction: Cowboys 27, Buccaneers 20

No. 10 Rams vs. No. 7 Eagles

Here's a matchup featuring two struggling defenses. Matthew Stafford and the Rams offense could be one of the best in the league, while Jalen Hurts and Co. have looked out of sorts at times over the last month. These teams actually faced off back in Week 5. A.J. Brown, Dallas Goedert and Cooper Kupp all went over 100 yards receiving, but just 37 total points were scored. Philly went 2 of 6 in the red zone, while the Rams managed 249 yards of total offense compared to the Eagles' 454. Philly won, 23-14. Stafford is a player many will bet on to make a deep postseason run, but his defense will let him down. Just go back and look at that Ravens-Rams showdown from a few weeks ago. The reigning NFC champion gets out of the first round alive.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Rams 24

No. 9 Chiefs vs. No. 8 Browns

There will be plenty of discussion about the seeding in this matchup. Are Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs really a No. 9 seed?! Well, this Chiefs team doesn't look like the 2022 Chiefs. Mahomes is having a hard time connecting with his receivers and Travis Kelce hasn't been the same dynamite playmaker. As for the Browns, 38-year-old Joe Flacco has thrown for 300 yards in four straight wins, which has NEVER been done in Browns franchise history, and the defense is the best in the league in terms of total yards allowed per game. 

These two teams are meeting at the wrong time. Or the right time, depending on who you're rooting for. The Chiefs are coming off a loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, while Flacco has the Browns riding high. The seeding is correct. Browns win.  

Prediction: Browns 23, Chiefs 20

Quarterfinals 

No. 12 Seahawks vs. No. 4 Lions

Seattle defeated Detroit at Ford Field back in Week 2. How? Well, the Lions defense struggled. Geno Smith had one of his best outings of the year (season-high quarterback rating of 116.3), as he threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Detroit's defense is a reason not to love this team as a legitimate contender, but the Seahawks aren't exactly the '85 Bears, either. Detroit's offense carries the Lions to victory in this matchup. Seattle's playoff run ends here. 

Prediction: Lions 31, Seahawks 24

No. 6 Cowboys vs. No. 3 Dolphins

A rematch from Week 16 that I'm sure no one would protest. Who would have thought the Cowboys' fumble at the Miami 1-yard line on the first drive of the game would prove so costly? Prescott led a 17-play, 69-yard touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter to take the lead, but the Dolphins answered right away with a 12-play, 64-yard drive that set up a 29-yard Jason Sanders game-winning field goal. These two teams are intriguing because questions still remain if they can beat good squads. The Cowboys had that win over the Eagles on "Sunday Night Football" a few weeks ago, but Philly is clearly faltering a bit. Then, the Dolphins' best win was probably against Dallas. 

We haven't had many upsets yet, so I'll take the Cowboys to advance to our final four in this revenge game. This time, Dallas wins the turnover battle and Micah Parsons draws a couple of flags. 

Prediction: Cowboys 26, Dolphins 23

No. 7 Eagles vs. No. 2 49ers

The last time these two teams met, the 49ers destroyed the Eagles in Philly, 42-19. Deebo Samuel exploded for 138 total yards and three touchdowns, while Brock Purdy completed 19 of 27 passes for 314 yards and four touchdowns. San Francisco dominated Philadelphia's defense, scoring 14 points in each of the second, third and fourth quarters after going down 6-0 in the first. It's true that the 49ers were just dominated by the Ravens, but is that outcome the kick in the hindquarters this unit needed to make a legitimate run? 

Prediction: 49ers 30, Eagles 21

No. 8 Browns vs. No. 1 Ravens

This is a great rematch from Week 10, where Deshaun Watson and the Browns scored 16 unanswered points to win in Baltimore, 33-31. While the Browns have one of the best defenses in the league, the Ravens defense is pretty stacked, too. The Browns offensive line is down to backups at several spots, and I think defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald will find a way to apply pressure on Flacco and force turnovers -- like Baltimore did against Purdy. 

Prediction: Ravens 20, Browns 16

Semifinals

No. 6 Cowboys vs. No. 2 49ers

The Cowboys have lost three straight to the 49ers, with two of those losses coming in the playoffs back-to-back years, and the other in the form of a 42-10 beatdown back in Week 5. The 49ers offense had no problem against the Cowboys defense, and the Cowboys offense couldn't do anything against the 49ers defense. Prescott threw for 153 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions, while Purdy threw for 252 yards and four touchdowns. 

The answer to the question of who is the more complete team is obvious, and that's the 49ers. 

Prediction: 49ers 31, Cowboys 23

No. 4 Lions vs. No. 1 Ravens

The NFL world probably erased this from memory, but the Lions and Ravens actually played earlier this year. Back in Week 7, the Lions paid a visit to Baltimore and got absolutely destroyed. Detroit entered that week tied for the best record in the NFL (5-1), yet trailed Baltimore, 28-0, at halftime. That tied the largest halftime deficit in NFL history by a team with the best record in the league in Week 7 or later. The Ravens had a whopping nine plays of 20-plus yards in the first two quarters, which was tied for the most 20-yard plays by any team in a first half since the turn of the millennium. Ravens advance to the Super Bowl. 

Prediction: Ravens 23, Lions 17

Super Bowl LVIII

No. 2 49ers vs. No. 1 Ravens

We thought we were getting a potential Super Bowl preview Christmas night, and as it turns out, it was indeed a Super Bowl preview. Baltimore was successful against San Francisco because it forced turnovers on defense and consistently scored on offense. The Ravens forced three interceptions in the first half and scored on four of five first-half possessions -- a streak that was extended to seven straight scoring drives in the third quarter. 

It was surprising the Ravens had that kind of offensive success against the vaunted 49ers defense, but this San Francisco team may live for revenge games. Just look at what Kyle Shanahan did to the Eagles earlier this year. My guess is that the 49ers don't lose two straight to the Ravens. 

Prediction: 49ers 27, Ravens 24