Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray fallout: What happens when teams move on from first-round QBs?

It's December, which means the NFL's quarterback carousel starts turning as teams get eliminated from the playoffs and turn their attention to the future.

The first two dominoes to fall were long-standing quarterbacks with their respective franchises. The Cardinals placed Kyler Murray on injured reserve over a month ago, then recently announced his season is over. The Dolphins benched Tua Tagovailoa last week, two days after they were eliminated.

Both moves more or less signal the beginning of the end after both spent at least six seasons with their draft teams. They are among the first-round quarterbacks on the hot seat for their current teams, too. Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy will likely face competition next year, Anthony Richardson's days with the Colts are numbered, and the jury is still out on Bryce Young as he attempts to guide an 8-7 Panthers team to a division crown in the weak NFC South.

So how should the tenures of Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa be judged? What's next for both, and what happens when teams miss on quarterbacks in the first round? I'm tackling all of that today.

How should Kyler and Tua be judged?

The writing is on the wall in Arizona and Miami. That has me reflecting on how we should look back on their time with their draft teams, if it is in fact the end of the road.

Both flashed franchise quarterback potential at times, which is why both got franchise quarterback money. Murray was an NFL MVP candidate at his height midway through the 2021 season. He was 7-0 with 20 touchdowns before a midseason ankle injury cost him three games. He never really recovered, and the Cardinals went one-and-done in the postseason, his only career playoff start. It's been inconsistency and injury ever since, including four straight losing seasons and a torn ACL in 2023. You can't blame the Cardinals for moving on.

Tagovailoa was 8-1 with 19 touchdown passes and a 115.7 passer rating midway through 2022 in his first season with Tyreek Hill. That included a terrible concussion in Week 4 in Cincinnati. Another concussion late in the season cost him the rest of the year. He bounced back to start all 17 games in 2023 and led the NFL in passing yards, but the Dolphins lost a frigid playoff game in Kansas City. It's been injury and inconsistency ever since for him, too.

To put both tenures in proper perspective, I categorized every quarterback drafted in the first round from 2000-24. My goal was to assess if each reached franchise quarterback status. Essentially, were they top-10 quarterbacks for a long period of time who gave their teams a chance to win a championship? I generated percentile ranks for each quarterback against the rest of the group in the following categories:

• Total starts with debut team (longevity)
• Playoff starts with debut team (team success)
• EPA per dropback with debut team (individual success)

I eventually averaged those rankings to create one score -- a percentile rank for each quarterback. I consider everyone in the 70th percentile or higher a franchise quarterback for their debut team. Why the 70th percentile? Well, that's basically the equivalent of a top-10 quarterback out of 32 teams, and all the names pretty much pass the eye test, so that was enough for me. Everyone between 30% and 70% is considered a miss, while the rest are still misses, but more specifically in the bust category.

Hit rate on QBs drafted in the first round since 2000

Franchise QBs

Misses

Busts

Tagovailoa and Murray are at the top of the miss category. They were close to reaching franchise quarterback status thanks to their longevity and average to above-average quarterback play. However, they are misses because of no playoff success and inconsistent play in recent years.

Both still have time to change how their tenures are perceived, but it's unlikely it will happen at this point. It certainly doesn't mean they are failures. The bar to become a franchise quarterback is both very high and debatable. It's an incredible accomplishment to be an NFL starting quarterback for this long, but ultimately it looks like both teams hit the ceiling with these quarterbacks and were over it.

This was also a helpful exercise to see how they stacked up with their contemporaries. Seeing their names in the miss category next to guys like Jared Goff, Alex Smith, Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield made a lot of sense -- all good quarterbacks who weren't quite good enough with their draft teams. Derek Carr wasn't a first-round pick, but he's a fair comp here, too.

• Goff got to the Super Bowl with the Rams before regressing, and they shipped him off with two first-round picks for Matthew Stafford (what a decision that proved to be!).
• Smith started to make waves with the 49ers before an injury resulted in San Francisco betting on Colin Kaepernick as a better option to win them a title (they were almost right).
• Tannehill made 88 starts with the Dolphins but never won a playoff game.
• Wentz was an MVP candidate before he tore his ACL in 2017 and never really recovered.
• Mayfield won a playoff game with the Browns, but they moved on from him prematurely after some regression.

Careers on debut teams

Does a change of scenery help for first-round misses?

So what happens next for this pair? It's complicated, as both have three years and more than $125 million left on their deals. Tagovailoa's dead money charge of $99 million makes him almost impossible to release in 2026, while his value makes him an unlikely trade target. I could see him staying on Miami's roster through 2026 before getting jettisoned. Murray is more likely to move this offseason because he has higher trade value and a lower dead money cap charge of $52 million.

They will probably have different paths, but the destination is almost definitely going to be a new team in the next one to two years. Based on the list above, there's absolutely hope both can become productive starting quarterbacks for another team. Everyone on the list above won a playoff game at another stop except Carson Wentz. However, neither is going to be a team's plan A.

The data shows that despite the recent successes rebooting quarterbacks, it's still better to draft a quarterback or go for a top-five veteran quarterback via trade or free agency (on the small chance they are actually available). We pretty much know what Tagovailoa and Murray are at this point: they have fairly high floors but a low ceiling in terms of competing for a Super Bowl.

The hit rate on quarterbacks drafted in the first round from 2000-24 is nearly 30% with the debut team. It plummets to just above 15% on their next team, and their stock only drops from there (Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield are the exception).

First-round QBs drafted since 2000 (success by team number)

Even if they do find success with another team, it's likely to be shorter as just over 10% of misses end up making 50+ starts with their second team. 

First-round QBs drafted since 2000 (averages by team number)

Overall, there were 38 misses on the above quarterback rankings chart that ended up playing on another team. They combined to make 94 stops on other teams throughout their careers, and only eight were successful, in my opinion. We can debate who is considered a "miss" and what constitutes "success," but the numbers are still pretty clear.

First-round QB misses since 2000 (found success on another team)

Even though there's been recent success with rebooting first-round misses, the numbers still aren't ideal. There are 38 stops among first-round misses since 2021, and only three started a playoff game (Mayfield, Goff, Darnold).

That's the harsh reality for Murray and Tagovailoa. They will likely have productive stints with another team, but they'll be bridges, with the best-case scenario being a playoff win or two -- not a championship-caliber quarterback. When is the last time a first-round miss even rebounded to win a Super Bowl? By my count, it's Trent Dilfer for the 2000 Ravens, who had one of the best defenses in NFL history. Jim Plunkett also comes to mind.

How do teams recover from missing a QB in the first round?

So what's next for the Dolphins and Cardinals? As Jared Dubin lays out, the Dolphins could look to an inexpensive veteran in 2026 who's likely a bridge to taking a swing in the 2027 draft. The Cardinals can do the same thing with Jacoby Brissett on their team in 2026.

Either way, recovering from missing on a quarterback in the first round is challenging, especially when you've already given them lucrative extensions. You have to get out of the contract and pay dead money charges, and oftentimes a head coach and general manager are tied to their quarterback, so an organizational overhaul could be in store. We know Jonathan Gannon and Mike McDaniel are firmly on the hot seat with their quarterbacks.

I looked back at the 45 instances on the above quarterback rankings chart to see what happened with a team that missed and moved on from a first-round signal caller drafted in the 2000s. Those teams had a collective .453 winning percentage in five seasons following the move and averaged 1.5 playoff trips. On average, they had to wait 2.5 seasons for their next playoff trip, and they waited 3.5 years to draft another quarterback in the first round.

That honestly seems daunting. There is hope, though. Each of the last five Super Bowls featured a team that had admitted defeat on a quarterback they drafted in the first round in the previous four years.

• The Eagles went 1-1 in Super Bowls in the 2022 and 2024 seasons after Jalen Hurts replaced Carson Wentz.
• The 49ers made the Super Bowl in 2023 with Brock Purdy after trading Trey Lance (who they invested three first-round picks in).
• The Rams won a Super Bowl in the 2021 season after trading Jared Goff (and picks) for Matthew Stafford.
• The Buccaneers won a Super Bowl in 2020 after moving on from Jameis Winston and winning the Tom Brady sweepstakes.

On the flip side, you could be the Jets (with Mark Sanchez, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson) or the Browns (with Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, Johnny Manziel, Baker Mayfield), who keep cycling through and failing on young quarterbacks.

What this tells me is it can be a long road from untangling yourself from the guy who was supposed to be your franchise quarterback. The best way to reach football's holy grail (a franchise quarterback and a Super Bowl) is to take swings on blue-chip prospects in the draft (hope to land the next Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Drake Maye) or push all the chips in to win a veteran quarterback sweepstakes (like with Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford). Veteran reboots on the cheap are a decent plan B.

Easier said than done, but that's what lies ahead for the Cardinals and Dolphins and a host of other teams considering turning the page on a quarterback they invested a lot in. You can see why teams are moving on from quarterbacks faster and faster these days, leaving quarterback purgatory behind and shooting for the stars. Best of luck to all heading into 2026!