NFL odds, Vegas lines, picks, spreads, game predictions: Model high on Browns, Bengals in Week 3, 2024

SportsLine's advanced model has locked in its Week 3 NFL betting picks from 10,000 simulations

By CBS Sports Staff

Sep 17, 2024 at 9:07 am ET • 4 min read

usatsi

There are four Monday Night Football doubleheaders this season, and the first takes place during the Week 3 NFL schedule. Bills vs. Jaguars has Buffalo favored by 5.5 points, per the Week 3 NFL odds, and Bengals vs. Commanders has Cincinnati as an eight-point favorite. The former matchup features Josh Allen going head-to-head with Trevor Lawrence, and their teams have historically had close, competitive matchups. Each of the last seven Jaguars vs. Bills games have been decided by seven points or fewer in the latest NFL betting trends.

Meanwhile, Commanders vs. Bengals has a pair of Heisman-winning LSU quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels and Joe Burrow. This will be Washington's second trip to Cincinnati in the last 33 years, but can the Commanders cover one of the largest NFL spreads of the week? All of the Week 3 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 3 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on A-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on A-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 3 NFL odds and NFL betting lines on the spread, money line, and over-under, and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 3 NFL predictions

We can tell you one of the model's strongest Week 3 NFL picks is that the Browns (-6.5, 38.5) cover the spread versus the Giants in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff. After an ugly season-opening loss to the Cowboys, the Browns bounced back in Week 2 by winning and covering at Jacksonville. Cleveland was its typically dominant defensive self by holding the Jags to just 13 points and racking up four sacks, but the offense also carried its weight. Deshaun Watson and the Browns played turnover-free ball, went 3 for 3 on 4th down attempts and rushed for 125 yards.

Meanwhile, the Giants were blown out by 22 points in Week 1 and then made dubious NFL history in Week 2. They became the first team, ever, to score three touchdowns, allow zero touchdowns and still lose as they fell to Washington 21-18. New York is, literally, inventing new ways to lose games, and it is just 3-7 against the spread on the road since the start of last season. The SportsLine model has Cleveland protecting its home field and covering almost 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

Another one of its Week 3 NFL predictions: the Bengals (-7.5, 48.5) cover versus the Commanders. Now that Weeks 1 and 2 are over with, the real Bengals will show up as they simply don't know how to start the season off right. Burrow is just 1-9 in his career over the first two weeks of seasons, but he's 33-17-1 thereafter, including the postseason. Despite Sunday's loss to the Chiefs, Cincinnati did cover, and it is nearly undefeated versus the spread in recent matchups with NFC teams. Over their last 10 non-conference games, the Bengals have lost just once ATS.

Washington has serious issues with the passing game, both on offense and on defense. Daniels has yet to throw a single touchdown pass, and no Commanders player has even 100 receiving yards on the season. On the other side of the ball, Washington has allowed the most passing touchdowns (six), which is simply a continuation of last season, as the team also gave up the most passing TDs in 2023. Burrow is coming off a two-TD, zero-INT game in a hostile environment in Kansas City, so he should dice up the Commanders at home. The model has Cincinnati (-7.5) covering well over 50% of the time, with the Over (48.5) hitting in well over 60% of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 3 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 3 NFL schedule and just revealed three must-see underdogs who win outright, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which three must-see underdogs should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.