It's good to be back!
A lot has changed since we last hung out in what I typically refer to this space as "our little betting corner on the internet." Not long after Patrick Mahomes earned his latest Super Bowl ring, I got one of my own, tying the knot with the new Mrs. in late February. Since walking down the aisle, I drank my weight in Guinness during our honeymoon in Ireland and capped it off with a smorgasbord of pasta during the second leg of the trip when we hit Rome.
While fun, a wedding and subsequent European honeymoon isn't exactly the cheapest endeavor, so how about we roll into the 2024 regular season with some winning Week 1 tickets to help me continue to recoup from the vay-cay and balloon your bankroll for the upcoming year we have in front of us. Of course, we'll get things started with my five locks of the week.
2023 record
Playoffs
ATS: 10-3
ML: 10-3
Regular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 45-45-1
ATS: 145-116-11
ML: 174-98
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Steelers at Falcons
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
Both of these teams opted for a quarterback change this offseason with Atlanta signing Kirk Cousins and Pittsburgh bringing Russell Wilson aboard. While both signal-callers should be able to lift their respective offenses up in 2024, Cousins should make the Falcons exponentially better. Before going down with a torn Achilles last year, Cousins was playing at a high level, tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns, and was second in passing yards while completing nearly 70% of his passes. If he can come close to those numbers during his stint with the Falcons, it should result in a potent offense headlined by Drake London, Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.
As for the Falcons defense, the unit was sneaky good last season (third best in the league on third down and fourth in red zone touchdown rate). With the addition of Matthew Judon and Justin Simmons this offseason, they could surprise yet again in 2024. The historical trends don't look too favorably on this matchup (Falcons 1-11 ATS in last 12 games against AFC North teams), but this is a different Atlanta team we're looking at, so I'm essentially throwing those out.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is a little banged up heading into the opener, already ruling out left guard Isaac Seumalo.
Projected score: Falcons 24, Steelers 17
The pick: Falcons -3.5
Ravens at Chiefs
- Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo)
What a doozy of an opener! An AFC Championship rematch is exactly what the people want to open up the 2024 regular season and the NFL obliged. Historically, it's good to back the defending Super Bowl champions as they are 14-9-1 ATS in the Week 1 opener. That said, the Chiefs did fall as the favorite when they were in this exact spot a season ago when they opened up against Detroit. While it's hard to string things from one season to another, I do think that last year's loss to begin the year will serve as motivation for Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the Chiefs to come out sharp.
What concerns me about Baltimore is how the team will respond in the aftermath of losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald (now coach of the Seahawks) and star linebacker Patrick Queen (signed with Steelers) this offseason. That level of change could trigger a slower start defensively than some may think. Meanwhile, this could be another Steve Spagnuolo spotlight game. In the AFC Championship, the Chiefs blitzed Lamar Jackson 20 times and the defending league MVP completed just 44% of his passes. It's possible they tap back into that same formula here.
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Ravens 20
The pick: Chiefs -3
Packers at Eagles
- Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Peacock)
We head south of the border for our second game on the NFL calendar as we have ourselves a Friday night showdown between the Packers and Eagles in São Paulo, Brazil.
These two teams couldn't have ended the 2023 season on more opposite ends of the spectrum, with the Packers going 6-2 down the stretch, while the Eagles went 1-5.
As you may have read in various other posts on this site, I'm extremely high on Green Bay this season. How high? Well, I have the Packers winning the Super Bowl, so about as high as we can possibly get. I think Jordan Love was special down the stretch last season and if that's who the Packers are getting in 2024, they're going to go on a special run. So, of course, I like them in Week 1. In regards to Philly, I still have some questions as to whether or not the stench of last season's fall from grace has worn off just yet.
One thing to note in this game -- and for the start of the season -- as it relates to the Packers is how stellar they've been against the numbers under Matt LaFleur. Since 2019 (the year LaFleur was hired), Green Bay is 13-4 ATS in September, which is the best mark in the NFL over that span.
Projected score: Packers 27, Eagles 24
The pick: Packers +2.5
Vikings at Giants
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This has more to do with how down I am on the Giants this season than it has anything to do with the Vikings. This could be the year that we definitively put the Danny Dimes era to rest in East Rutherford. Daniel Jones' preseason showing left little room for optimism and he could be under siege quite a bit in this opener. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores is blitz-happy, sending extra men after the quarterback on 50.7% of dropbacks last season (most in the NFL). That unit will now face a Giants O-line that is coming off a season where it allowed quarterbacks to be sacked 85 times (second most in NFL history). Yes, the Giants added some new pieces to that line, but there are still plenty of questions regarding what's in front of the quarterback.
Projected score: Vikings 21, Giants 14
The pick: Vikings -1.5
Texans at Colts
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
I have serious questions about Anthony Richardson. At times, he looks like he could break the NFL and be an instant MVP candidate. And then there are other moments where I question his chances of staying in the league due to his still-developing passing ability. Do you know who I don't have questions about? C.J. Stroud. The second-year quarterback was sensational as a rookie and I believe he's going to be a star in this league for a long time. And what do stars do? Win (and cover) on the road. Stroud and wideout Nico Collins burned this team twice last season to the tune of 341 total yards through the air and a touchdown apiece in each game. I also see DeMeco Ryans' defense showing up in this game after allowing just 20.8 points per game in 2023 (11th fewest in the NFL).
Houston has won and covered in its last eight games against the AFC South and the Colts are 0-8-1 ATS in Week 1 dating to 2015.
Projected score: Texans 27, Colts 17
The pick: Texans -2.5
Rest of the bunch
Cardinals at Bills
Projected score: Bills 30, Cardinals 27
The pick: Cardinals +6
Titans at Bears
Projected score: Bears 26, Titans 17
The pick: Bears -4.5
Patriots at Bengals
Projected score: Bengals 28, Patriots 13
The pick: Bengals -8.5
Jaguars at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 30, Jaguars 24
The pick: Dolphins -3
Panthers at Saints
Projected score: Saints 24, Panthers 21
The pick: Panthers +4
Raiders at Chargers
Projected score: Raiders 23, Chargers 21
The pick: Raiders +3
Broncos at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 27, Broncos 20
The pick: Seahawks -6
Cowboys at Browns
Projected score: Browns 23, Cowboys 20
The pick: Browns -2.5
Commanders at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Commanders 21
The pick: Commanders +3.5
Rams at Lions
Projected score: Lions 33, Rams 24
The pick: Lions -3.5
Jets at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 26, Jets 23
The pick: Jets +3.5