The second half of the 2024 regular season kicked off with a bang in Week 10. No matter where you turned, it seemed like there were one-score games, leading to several thrilling endings. We had a game-winning field goal in Houston, an overtime game winner between the Giants and Panthers in Germany and a blocked field goal at the buzzer to keep the Chiefs undefeated. Needless to say, Week 11 has a tall task following last week up.
With those games going to the wire, folks were likely sweating out those finishes on the betting sites. As we turn our attention to the upcoming week, we will take our first look at the odds and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers believe will come out on top.
Note: New York (Giants), Arizona, Tampa Bay, and Carolina are on bye in Week 11.
Week 11 early odds
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| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Commanders at Eagles (Thursday) | Eagles -3.5 | 49 | Commanders +145, Eagles -175 |
Packers -6.5 | 41.5 | Packers -285, Bears +230 | |
Ravens -3 | 47 | Ravens -162, Steelers +136 | |
Saints -2.5 | 44 | Browns +114, Saints -135 | |
Lions -13 | 48 | Jaguars +550, Lions -800 | |
Dolphins -7 | 45.5 | Raiders +270, Dolphins -340 | |
Vikings -6.5 | 39.5 | Vikings -270, Titans +220 | |
Jets -3 | 44 | Colts +130, Jets -155 | |
Rams -5.5 | 43.5 | Rams -238, Patriots +195 | |
49ers -6.5 | 49.5 | Seahawks +260, 49ers -325 | |
Broncos -1.5 | 44 | Falcons +105, Broncos -125 | |
Chiefs at Bills | Bills -1.5 | 45.5 | Chiefs +105, Bills -125 |
Chargers -2.5 | 46 | Bengals +114, Chargers -135 | |
Texans -7 | 42 | Texans -340, Cowboys +275 |
Notable movement, trends
Commanders at Eagles (Thursday)
We open up Week 11 with a pivotal NFC East showdown. At 7-2, the Eagles are currently atop the division over the Commanders (7-3), but this is as tight of a race as you can find in the league. Philadelphia opened as a 6-point favorite at home, but has since dwindled to Eagles -3.5. Washington has been among the top teams to back this season as it enters Week 11 with a 7-2-1 ATS record (77.8%), which includes a 3-1-1 ATS record on the road. Meanwhile, the Eagles have yet to cover as the home team, owning an 0-3 ATS record.
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has locked in Thursday night's game between the Eagles and Commanders. Visit SportsLine to see all its picks for the NFC East showdown.
Packers at Bears
The Chicago Bears opened as a 1-point home favorite, but that has since swung dramatically in favor of the Green Bay Packers. They are now laying 6.5 points as a road favorite over their division rival. Green Bay was on bye in Week 10, but that break hasn't always benefited the Packers. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 4-4 ATS coming off the bye. That said, the Bears are 0-3 ATS when they have the rest disadvantage under Matt Eberflus.
Ravens at Steelers
The Ravens have held as a field-goal favorite on the road over the Steelers. Both of these AFC North teams are coming off dramatic wins in Week 10 and are neck-and-neck for first place in the division. Baltimore will have the rest advantage after playing on Thursday. Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS this season, which includes a cover the lone time they were a home underdog. The Ravens are 3-1 ATS as road favorites.
Browns at Saints
The Saints are now a 2.5-point favorite at home after the Browns opened as a 2-point favorite. New Orleans responded well in the aftermath of firing head coach Dennis Allen with an upset win over the Falcons. The Saints are 2-3 ATS at home this season and take on a Browns team that was on bye in Week 10. Cleveland is 2-2 ATS on the road this season and has really struggled under Kevin Stefanski following the bye, as they are 1-3 ATS in that setting.
Jaguars at Lions
The Detroit Lions came out with an improbable win over the Texans in Week 10 and now face much easier sledding as they head back to Ford Field to face the Jaguars. They initially opened as a 4-point favorite, but that has since ballooned to Lions -13. Part of that leap is likely due to the uncertain status of Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who missed Week 10 due to injury. Detroit is 3-1 ATS at home with an average margin of victory sitting at 13.3.
Raiders at Dolphins
The Dolphins still have their Week 10 matchup to play on Monday night, but they are a full touchdown favorite over the Raiders in Week 11. This is a key change from the open, where they were laying 6 points, to Las Vegas, crossing a notable number. The Dolphins have yet to cover (0-4 ATS) at Hard Rock Stadium this season but take on a Raiders team that is 2-3 ATS on the road.
Vikings at Titans
The Vikings opened as a 1-point favorite on the road against the Titans, but that number has since shot up to Vikings -6.5. Minnesota narrowly defeated the Jaguars in Week 10 as Sam Darnold struggled with turnovers, but they do face a Titans team that has been the worst team to back throughout the season. They are a league-worst 1-8 ATS and are 0-4 ATS at home. The Vikings are 2-2 ATS on the road.
Colts at Jets
The New York Jets opened as a 4-point favorite, but that is starting to trickle down in the direction of the Indianapolis Colts. The Jets are now sitting as a 3-point favorite, clinging to a key number. The Colts are 7-3 ATS on the season, which includes a 3-2 ATS record on the road. As for the Jets, they are 2-2 ATS at home this year and 3-7 ATS overall.
Rams at Patriots
This line could still see some movement with the Rams yet to play on Monday night, but they've seen their odds improve with this upcoming road matchup in New England. Los Angeles opened as a 4-point favorite, and it has now crept up to Rams -5.5. Sean McVay's team is 1-3 ATS on the road this season, while the Patriots are 1-2-1 ATS at Gillette Stadium.
Seahawks at 49ers
The 49ers are seeing their grip lessen with this upcoming matchup with the Seahawks. San Francisco opened as a 9-point favorite, but that has fallen through several key numbers and sits at 49ers -6.5 coming out of Sunday. The Niners barely escaped with a win over the Buccaneers on the road and will now face a Seattle team that was on its bye in Week 10. San Francisco is 3-2 ATS at home this year, while Seattle is 1-1-1 on the road.
Falcons at Broncos
The Denver Broncos have moved out as favorites at home over the Atlanta Falcons. Initially, Kirk Cousins and Co. were laying 3 points as road favorites, but that has since swung in the direction of Denver, who are now 1.5-point favorites. The Broncos had the Chiefs on their heels in Week 10, but a blocked field goal as time expired gave them the loss. Still, they are 7-3 ATS on the season but 2-2 ATS at home. As for the Falcons, they are 5-5 ATS on the season, but have fared well on the road (3-1 ATS).
Chiefs at Bills
Maybe the most highly anticipated game on the Week 11 slate resides in Buffalo, where the Bills are a slight 1.5-point favorite over the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. The defending Super Bowl champions have fared well on the road this season, as they will head into Highmark Stadium with a 3-1 ATS record. While the Bills are 6-4 ATS on the year, they are 2-2 ATS at home.
Bengals at Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers are in a position to be one of the surprise playoff teams of 2024, and they are now being treated as such. They have moved out to being 2.5-point favorites over the Cincinnati Bengals after initially opening as 2-point home dogs. L.A. is 6-3 ATS on the year and 3-1 ATS at home. As for Cincy, they head into SoFi Stadium with an immaculate 5-0 ATS record, so something will need to give here.
Texans at Cowboys (Monday)
The Dallas Cowboys initially opened as a 3-point favorite over the Houston Texans. However, in the aftermath of Dak Prescott's injury, the line has swung dramatically in the direction of Houston. The Texans are now laying a full touchdown as road favorites. The Cowboys are 0-4 ATS at AT&T Stadium this season, while the Texans are 2-3 ATS on the road. Houston is also 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.