As we head into Week 11, I have no idea how the Kansas City Chiefs are still undefeated, but they are.
Every week, they discover a new way to win and just when I think they can't top themselves from the week before, they do something like BLOCK a field goal on the final play. There have been at least five games this season where I thought for sure that the Chiefs were going to lose, but clearly, I know nothing about football, because they didn't lose any of them.
I know what you're thinking and I agree: At this point, I think we have to blame the Hallmark Channel for all of the Chiefs' success this year.
The Chiefs haven't lost a single game since the Hallmark Channel announced that it was making a Christmas movie about them and that can't be a coincidence. If you didn't know about the movie, just watch the short preview below.
If you've seen any Hallmark Christmas movies, then you know how magical they are and I should have known as soon as that preview came out that I needed to start betting on the Chiefs to win every week. If I had done that from the start, I'd already have won enough money to make my own Hallmark Christmas movie.
Although the Chiefs have managed to stay undefeated through the first 10 weeks of the season, they have their biggest test of the year coming up on Sunday against the Bills. Will Buffalo pull off the upset or will the Hallmark Christmas movie magic last for another week? Let's get to the Week 11 picks and find out.
NFL Week 11 picks
Washington (7-3) at Philadelphia (7-2)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Point spread pick: Eagles (-3 at FanDuel)
The NFC East has suddenly turned into my favorite division in the NFL and that's mostly because it's so entertaining. On one hand, you have the two-ring circus known as the Cowboys and Giants, who are battling it out for the title of worst team in the NFL. You know the Cowboys season has hit rock bottom when Jerry Jones is being called out by his own players about the fact that his $1.2 billion stadium has a major design flaw.
Curtains or no curtains, the Eagles absolutely embarrassed the Cowboys on Sunday, and now, they have to turn around and play the most surprising team in the NFL this year: The Washington Commanders.
For most of the past 20 years, being a Commanders fans was generally a miserable experience, but over the past 18 months, that's changed considerably. Just look at what the team. has done recently: They got rid of Dan Snyder, they found a franchise quarterback and they're on track to make the playoffs for just the second time since 2016.
They could take a big step toward winning the NFC East title if they can beat the Eagles this week, but I don't think that's going to happen. If the Commanders have struggled at one thing this year, it's stopping the run and if you can't stop the run, the last guy in the NFC you want to be facing is Saquon Barkley. The Eagles running back is averaging 110.1 yards per game this year, which is second in the NFL. If you're now wondering how bad the Commanders are at stopping the run, they're surrendering 142.7 yards per game on the ground, which is the fifth-worst number in the NFL.
And as crazy as it sounds, Barkley should be fresh for this game, because he only got 14 carries in Week 10 against the Cowboys. I'm pretty sure some Eagles fans actually wanted Nick Sirianni fired in Week 10 because of the way he used Barkley...
Although Eagles fans and fantasy owners were upset with Barkley's usage, there might have been some method to the madness. With the Eagles in control for nearly the entire game against Dallas (a 34-6 win) there was no reason to get Barkley beat up knowing that he was going to have to turn around and play on Thursday.
Basically, Sirianni is playing 5-D chess while the rest of us are playing Boggle. I can't pick against a coach who's playing 5-D chess.
The pick: Eagles 27-24 over Commanders
Baltimore (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-2)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Ravens (-3 at BetMGM)
I don't think realized how stacked the NFL schedule was this week until I saw that this game is at 1 p.m. ET. There's basically at least one must-see game in every viewing window this week and this is the one were getting at 1 p.m. ET. Put the kids to bed and buckle up, because this game is probably going to get crazy. I take that back, 1 p.m. ET is probably too early to put the kids to bed, so just buckle up.
Through the first 10 weeks of the season, the Steelers have looked like the best team in the AFC North, but I can't say that for sure, because they haven't actually played anyone in the AFC North yet. That's right, the Steelers have made it to week 11 without playing a division game and if you're wondering whether that's bizarre, the answer is yes. This is the longest any team has gone to start a season without playing a division game.
This game gives us the two longest tenured coaches in the NFL: Mike Tomlin has been with the Steelers since 2007 while John Harbaugh has been in Baltimore since 2008. No other NFL team has had the same coach since even 2012.
I think what I'm trying to say here is that these two coaches know each other well. Tomlin knows how to slow down Lamar Jackson, which is a big reason why the Ravens QB is just 2-4 against Pittsburgh with seven interceptions in those six games. Also, the Steelers have won seven of their last eight overall in this series and that's mostly happening because Tomlin's defense tends to dominate Baltimore.
The Steelers have held the Ravens under 20 points in seven straight games and if that happens again on Sunday, then Pittsburgh is likely going to win. However, I think the game-changer here is going to be Derrick Henry. The Steelers are 6-0 this season when they hold their opponent under 100 rushing yards, but 1-2 when they don't. If Henry can steamroll his way through the Steelers and help Baltimore control the game on the ground, then the Ravens will have a good chance of leaving Pittsburgh in total control of the AFC North and I'll say that happens.
The pick: Ravens 23-20 over Steelers
Atlanta (6-4) at Denver (5-5)
4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Broncos (-1.5 at FanDuel)
It's almost fitting that these two teams are playing this week because they're coming off two of the most painful losses of Week 10. I'm not saying NFL teams should hug at midfield during pregame, but if the Falcons and Broncos wanted to console each other for their losses last week, I don't think anyone would be opposed.
On one hand, we have the Broncos: They were attempting a 35-yard field goal to beat the Chiefs on the final play of the game, but the kick was blocked.
On the other hand, we have the Falcons, who lost a game they had no business losing. In Week 10, Atlanta lost to the Saints 20-17 and a big reason they lost is because Younghoe Koo missed three field goals. If you're scoring at home, that means the Broncos and Falcons lost by a combined five points on a day where they missed a combined five field goals.
So what do those close losses mean for this week? Well, it means that I think the Falcons are in trouble. Not only do they have to bounce back from a devastating loss, but they have to do it on the road against one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Broncos are one of just two teams in the NFL that's surrendering under 200 passing yards per game and under 105 rushing yards per game.
The Broncos have faced several top quarterbacks this season, including Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert, but they still haven't given up a single 300-yard passing game and I have a tough time seeing Kirk Cousins ending that streak. If the Broncos defense can slow down Bijan Robinson, that will put Denver in a good spot to win. The Broncos are 5-1 this season when they surrender 120 rushing yards or loss.
With these two teams playing, I feel like someone is in for another painful loss and I'll go ahead and say that someone is the Falcons.
The pick: Broncos 20-17 over Falcons
Kansas City (9-0) at Buffalo (8-2)
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Bills (-2.5 at DraftKings)
This is easily the biggest game of Week 11 and I'm not just saying that because it's on CBS. If you have plans on Sunday, cancel them. If you don't have plans, then make some, just so you can cancel them.
Actually, I take that back, you can do whatever you want on Sunday, just make sure you're in front of a television by 4:25 p.m. ET when this game kicks off. If you don't own a television, then you can stream the game on Paramount+. If you don't have the internet, I'm not sure how you're reading this, but you can go to a bar to watch. If you don't live near a bar, then you can sit in your car and listen to the game on the radio.
If this game ends up being like every other Chiefs game this season, then that means it's going to be an instant classic that goes down to the wire. The Chiefs have won nine games and seven of those have been decided by one score and five of those seven have been so dramatic that they probably should all get their own "30 for 30" documentary at some point.
Here are Kansas City's wildest wins so far:
Week 1: Chiefs beat Ravens 27-20 after Isaiah Likely's toe is ruled out of bounds in the end zone on the final play of the game.
Week 2: Chiefs beat Bengals 26-25 after Harrison Butker hits a 51-yard field goal on the final play of the game.
Week 3: Chiefs beat Falcons 22-17 after Atlanta fails on a fourth-and-1 from Kansas City's 13-yard line with under a minute left to play.
Week 9: Chiefs beat Buccaneers 30-24 after Kareem Hunt scores a walk-off TD in overtime.
Week 10: Chiefs beat Broncos 16-14 after Leo Chenal blocks a 35-yard field goal on the final play of the game.
At this point, my only theory is that God is betting big money on the Chiefs each week. Just kidding, we all know that God doesn't gamble on football.
Although the Bills can't seem to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs, that hasn't been the case in the regular season. This will mark the fourth straight year that the Bills have had to play a regular-season game against the Chiefs and they won in 2021, they won in 2022, they won in 2023 and I feel like they're going to also win in 2024.
The one reason I love the Bills here is because Josh Allen is always at his best when he plays at home and he's even better when he's playing the Chiefs. A big reason the Bills are 3-0 in their past three regular season games against Kansas City is because Allen always seems to play like Superman when he faces the Chiefs. In those three wins, he's averaged 292.3 passing yards per game and he's thrown nine touchdown passes compared to just one interception. On the other hand, Mahomes has six interceptions in those same three regular season games. The Chiefs quarterback always seems to flop against the Bills in the regular season and I'm starting to think he's doing it on purpose: He loses the regular-season game so that he's extra motivated to beat the Bills in the playoffs.
Mahomes is 3-0 in his last three playoff games against the Bills, but 0-3 in his past three regular-season games, and last I checked, this isn't a playoff game. The 1972 Dolphins will be able to pop their champagne on Sunday because the Chiefs are going down.
The pick: Bills 27-24 over Chiefs
Cincinnati (4-6) at L.A. Chargers (6-3)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread pick: Bengals (+1.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Check out the latest FanDuel promo to get in the game
This has to be the first time ever that a 4-6 team has been flexed to Sunday night, but let me say, I'm totally on board with the decision. If this game didn't get moved to prime time, we were going to get stuck with Jets-Colts in the Sunday night slot and no one wanted that. Not even Jets and Colts fans.
With the Bengals playing in the national spotlight, I don't want to spoil things for everyone, but I've watched enough Bengals games this year to know exactly how this game is going to play out, and that's because nearly every game goes the exact same way for Cincinnati: Joe Burrow will throw for 475 yards and five touchdowns, but the Bengals will still somehow be trailing in the fourth quarter and then probably lose.
Every game is a roller coaster ride for Bengals fans, except the roller coaster always seems to crash into a brick wall at the end.
The only upside for the Bengals this week is that if Burrow does have a big game, they're likely going to win. The Chargers have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL this year and they've been so good that no QB has topped 260 passing yards against them. The Chargers are 5-1 when they hold their opponent to 225 passing yards or less, but 1-2 when their opponent throws for 226 yards or more.
This is a game that matches strength vs. strength: Will Burrow have any success against the Chargers defense? If he does, that will put the Bengals in a good spot to steal the win. If this turns into a shootout, the Chargers almost certainly aren't going to be able to keep up. They haven't scored more than 27 points in a single game this season and they're 1-3 when their opponent scores at least 17 points.
The Chargers don't have a high-powered offense, so if Burrow can get the Bengals offense going, it's hard to see Los Angeles keeping up.
In franchise history, the Bengals have NEVER won two Sunday night games in the same season, but that drought could end with a victory here and I'll say it happens.
The pick: Bengals 27-20 over Chargers
NFL Week 11 picks: All the rest
Packers 27-17 over Bears
Lions 34-13 over Jaguars
Vikings 24-17 over Titans
Dolphins 30-20 over Raiders
Rams 24-16 over Patriots
Colts 23-20 over Jets
Browns 23-16 over Saints
49ers 34-24 over Seahawks
Texans 31-17 over Cowboys
BYES: Giants, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Bills would beat the Colts 30-20 and guess what happened? The Bills beat the Colts, 30-20. That's right, for the first time this season, I nailed the exact score of a game. Did I immediately go out and buy 17 lottery tickets afterward? Yes, but they all lost, so that was a total waste of money.
Worst pick: At this point, I don't think anyone is surprised by my worst pick because it seems to be the same thing every week: I pick the Jets to win because I can't stop picking them, and then not surprisingly, they lose. In Week 10, I picked the Jets to beat the Cardinals and not only was it my worst pick of the week, but it might have been my worst pick of the year. At the rate things are going, I'm going to have to hire someone who has one job and that one job will be to talk me out of picking the Jets every week.
By the way, if you're wondering whether the Jets look just as bad in person as they do on TV, the answer is yes.
I would say the Jets are the biggest disaster in the NFL this year, but the Cowboys exist, so it's a tight race for that title.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (8-1), Texans (8-2), Jaguars (8-2), Raiders (7-2), Chiefs (7-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (Seven straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Jets (4-6), Bengals (4-6), Ravens (4-6), Cardinals (4-6)
Longest losing streak: Panthers and Saints (Two straight incorrect picks for each team)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 10: 8-6
SU overall: 90-62
Against the spread in Week 10: 8-6
ATS overall: 76-73-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably in the middle of a Hallmark movie marathon.