It took 13 weeks, but we finally had our first team eliminated from playoff contention this year and in a total shock, it wasn't the Carolina Panthers. If you would have asked me a month ago, I would have bet everything I owned that Carolina would be the first team knocked out, but it's a good thing I didn't bet, because I wouldn't even have a laptop to write this on right now, because I would have lost everything I owned.
The Panthers actually look like a competent football team now and there's actually a path for them to still WIN THE NFC SOUTH. Anyway, I got sidetracked. What was I talking about? Oh yea, the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention this year. That team is the New York Giants.
I hate to say this Giants fans, but it feels like your team is two years away from being four years away: You don't have a quarterback, you let your best player walk in free agency (Saquon Barkley) and the offensive line has to be rebuilt. At the rate things are going, I feel like the Giants could be a wild-card contender by 2029.
With the Giants eliminated from contention, I fully expect them to start tanking so they can possibly land the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Since the Giants now have nothing to play for, I will not be picking them to win any of their remaining games, including this week's game against the Saints. I will now be funding my family's entire Christmas by betting against the Giants every week. Please don't ruin Christmas for me, Giants.
Now that you know I'm picking against the Giants, I've now spoiled one of my picks for Week 14, so let's get to the rest of the picks before I spoil any more of them.
And just for the record, there are actually four teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs as we head into Week 14: The Giants, Raiders, Jaguars and Patriots. The Giants were the first team out, though, since they lost on Thanksgiving before the Raiders, Patriots and Jaguars played in Week 13.
Alright, let's get to the picks.
NFL Week 14 picks
Green Bay (9-3) at Detroit (11-1)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Point spread: Packers (+3.5 at FanDuel)
If the Packers want to properly get ready for this game, they don't even have to practice this week, all they have to do is follow Jahmyr Gibbs on TikTok. It was only a matter of time before an NFL player shared something he wasn't supposed to share on TikTok and that happened this week with Gibbs, who shared a photo of himself in the Lions' running back room, which normally wouldn't be a problem, except there was a lot of information in that photo that the Lions would probably prefer not to have out there.
Dan Campbell was asked about the photo this week and he acted like he wasn't upset.
"We might as well just put everything out there. I don't really give a crap," Campbell said, via Pride of Detroit. "If we're going to lose because of code words, then we're not good enough anyway."
The problem with this explanation is that it's EXACTLY what you would say if you were mad because you wouldn't want people to know that you're mad. Nearly 80% of all NFL games this year have been decided by just one score, so even if the Packers get a .000000001% edge from Gibbs' photo, that still helps. Anything helps.
Of course, the Packers are going to need every edge they can get because they seem to struggle against good teams. The Packers are 8-0 this year against teams that currently have a record of .500 or worse, but they're just 1-3 against teams that are currently over .500 and the Lions are definitely over .500.
Although the Packers have struggled against good teams, Jordan Love has entered the phase of the season where he becomes completely unstoppable. Last year, Love got hot in November and carried the Packers to the playoffs. This year, Love has once again gotten hot in November and he's playing well enough to engineer an upset on Thursday night.
I did think about taking the Packers here, but this feels like a game where Jahmyr Gibbs goes off and then posts a video of him going off on TikTok.
The pick: Lions 27-24 over Packers
Atlanta (6-6) at Minnesota (10-2)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Vikings (-4.5 at FanDuel)
The Kirk Cousins revenge game is finally here, although I'm not sure we can technically call this the "Kirk Cousins revenge game" because there's a 50% chance that Kirk Cousins doesn't even believe in revenge. He's that nice.
For Cousins, it feels like this game is coming at the worst possible time: He's currently stuck in one of the worst ruts of his career. This is exactly when you don't want to be facing your old team. This is like gaining 80 pounds and then running into you ex at Christmas.
So how bad is Cousins' rut?
On. Nov. 4, the Falcons were sitting at 6-3 and it looked like they were in total control of the NFC South, but since then, they've totally fallen apart and it's mostly because of Cousins. Since Week 10, the Falcons have gone 0-3 and in that span, Cousins has thrown six interceptions and fumbled the ball four times. Four of those six interceptions came in a 17-13 loss to the Chargers in Week 13. If Cousins only throws three interceptions, the Falcons probably win.
Over the past three weeks, Cousins has played so badly that I'm pretty sure that Kohl's is going to ask for their Kohl's cash chain back.
Winners shop at Kohl's, and right now, Cousins isn't winning.
The Falcons are 2-6 this year when Cousins throws at least one interception in a game and 4-0 when he doesn't. I think what I'm trying to say here is that this game is going to come down to how well Cousins plays and based on the past three weeks, I don't have high hopes for the Falcons.
With Cousins struggling, the easiest way to take some pressure off of him would be for the Falcons to run the ball, but this is the one week where that strategy probably isn't going to work. The Vikings are surrendering just 81.3 yards per game on the ground, which makes them the best defense in the NFL against the run.
The Vikings have struggled to stop the pass, but with the way Cousins is playing, I'm not sure he's going to be able to take advantage of that. If Kohl's offers Cousins $10,000 in Kohl's cash for every touchdown he throws this week, then the Falcons might be able to pull off the upset, but I haven't seen anything about an offer, so I'm going to take the Vikings.
The pick: Vikings 31-24 over Falcons
Seattle (7-5) at Arizona (6-6)
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread: Cardinals (-3 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
If it feels like you just saw these two teams play, that's because you did. This game will mark the second time in 14 days that Arizona and Seattle will have played each other (Week 12 and Week 14). My theory is that someone in the NFL scheduling department fell asleep at the wheel and forgot to put this game on the 2024 schedule and then when they realized it, they had to throw it anywhere it would fit and this was the only week open. These two teams first met on Nov. 24, which is when I bought my Thanksgiving turkey and there is still leftover turkey in my fridge. I have no idea what my point is here other than that I'm already tired of turkey and no one wants to see two division rivals play two games this close together.
Normally, when two teams are playing for a second time, I don't put a lot of stock in the first game, but I might have to this time around, because the first game JUST happened. Back in Week 12, the Cardinals were held to a season-low point total in a 16-6 loss to the Seahawks. The Cards have scored at least 13 points in every other game this season except for that one.
One big reason the Seahawks were so good is because Mike Macdonald's defense absolutely shut down Kyler Murray. He threw for just 160 yards with a pick-six in the first three quarters of the game and I won't be surprised if he puts up similar numbers. Before taking over the Seahawks' coach, Macdonald spent two seasons as the Ravens' defensive coordinator, which means he got to watch Lamar Jackson practice every day. And after two years with Lamar, I have to think that if there's any head coach in the NFL who knows how to slow down a mobile QB, it's Macdonald.
Also, I have no faith in the Cardinals offense right now, at least when it comes to scoring touchdowns. The Cards only have one offensive TD in their past nine quarters of play and I can't pick a team that only has one offensive TD in their past nine quarters of play.
The pick: Seahawks 23-20 over Cardinals
Buffalo (10-2) at L.A. Rams (6-6)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread: Bills (-4.5 at BetMGM)
After playing in three feet snow on Sunday, the Bills will now be traveling across the country to a city where no one even knows what snow is.
Right now, the Bills are the hottest team in the AFC and after watching them beat down the 49ers in a blizzard on Sunday, I've decided that there are two situations where I'm never going to be picking against Josh Allen: One, if he's playing in the snow. And two, if he just got engaged and he's playing in his new fiancée's hometown.
That second situation might sound highly specific, but that's exactly what we're dealing with this week since Allen just got engaged to actress Hailee Steinfeld.
If you don't know anything about Hailee Steinfeld, let me tell you about her: She was born in Los Angeles and this game is being played three days before her birthday. That means that she'll probably be celebrating her birthday at the game and there's no way that Allen is going to lose with his new fiancee celebrating her birthday in her hometown with her family at a game that he's playing in.
Now, if you need an actual football reason why the Bills are going to win this game, it's because the Rams can't stop the run. They're giving up an average of 144.2 yards per game on the ground this year, which ranks in the bottom-five of the NFL. On the other hand, the Bills rushing attack has come alive over the past few weeks with Buffalo averaging 153 yards per game on the ground since Week 10.
The Bills are 3-0 against the NFC West this year and they've scored at least 31 points in every game and when I combine that with the fact that Josh Allen is undefeated in the pacific time zone in his career, I think we all know which way I'm going here. And no, I'm not just betting the Bills so that Josh and Hailee invite me to the wedding, but I won't say no if they do.
The pick: Bills 34-27 over Rams
L.A. Chargers (8-4) at Kansas City (11-1)
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Point spread: Chiefs (-4 at BetMGM)
If I've noticed one thing about the Chiefs over the past few years, it's that they never lose Sunday home games in December. In their past 15 December home games that have been played on a Sunday, the Chiefs are 14-1 and that only loss was by three points to the Bills last season. They're also 6-0 at home this season.
Now you might be thinking that the Chiefs don't look like the Chiefs this year, but I'm starting to think that we say that same thing every year around this time and then they fix things and end up winning the Super Bowl.
- in 2022, the Chiefs lost in Week 13 to fall to 9-3 and it looked like there was no way they were going to win the Super Bowl, but then they did.
- In 2023, the Chiefs lost in Week 13 to fall to 8-4 and it looked like there was no way they were going to win the Super Bowl, but then they did.
- In 2024, they almost lost in Week 13 and they're being called the worst 11-1 team of all-time and I'm pretty sure no one has any faith in them to win the Super Bowl, so obviously they're going to win the Super Bowl.
Basically, the Chiefs always seem to struggle at some point during the regular season and then we all write them off and then they eventually get the last laugh by winning the Super Bowl. It's a tale as old as time and I'm not falling for it this year.
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 17-10 back in Week 4 and a big reason that happened is because Kansas City's defense held L.A. to a season-low 55 rushing yards. The Chargers are 1-4 this season when they're held under 90 yards on the ground and that's not good news for an L.A. offense that's about to face one of the three teams in the NFL that's surrendering less than 90 yards per game on the ground.
I'm guessing this will go like almost every other Chiefs' game this season: It will be a nail-biter that goes down to the wire before the Chiefs find a way to win it late.
The pick: Chiefs 20-17 over Chargers
NFL Week 14 picks: All the rest
Titans 20-17 over Jaguars
Dolphins 31-23 over Jets
Saints 23-16 over Giants
Eagles 30-20 over Panthers
Steelers 31-20 over Browns
Buccaneers 22-19 over Raiders
49ers 27-20 over Bears
Bengals 34-27 over Cowboys
BYES: Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Ravens, Texans, Commanders
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Bears would play a close game with the Lions and choke it all away at the end and guess what happened? The Bears played a close game with the Lions and choked it all away at the end. And I have to say, it was one of the most spectacular chokes of all-time. I've had nearly a week to think about the ending of this game and I still have no idea what the Bears were doing. I mean, I never know what the Bears are doing, but so I guess that's nothing new, but I'm still baffled. It was like Matt Eberflus thought that you got three bonus points for every timeout you had left at the end of the game. You do not get bonus points, Matt.
Worst pick: I only missed three picks in Week 13, but I won't be taking a victory lap and that's because if I try to take one, I'll trip over my own feet and fall flat on my face, kind of like I did with my Dolphins-Packers pick. Last week, I literally spent three paragraphs explaining why you should always pick against the Dolphins when they're playing in cold weather, but then I talked myself into picking the Dolphins anyway, even though they've lost 12 straight games when the temperature is below 40 degrees. In the least surprising development ever, that pick totally blew up in my face. I'm never picking the Dolphins to win a cold-weather game ever again and if I do, I should punish myself by sitting outside in 25-degree weather to watch the entire game.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
My best picks record by team (Straight up): Titans (10-2), Jaguars (10-2), Raiders (10-2), Chiefs (10-2)
Longest winning streak: Chiefs (10 straight correct picks)
My worst picks record by team (Straight up): Bengals (4-8), Steelers (4-8)
Longest losing streak: Steelers (three straight incorrect picks)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 13: 13-3
SU overall: 121-74
Against the spread in Week 13: 8-8
ATS overall: 99-93-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably out counting all of his Kohl's cash so he can send it to Kirk Cousins.