One minute you look up and there are just four weeks left in the regular season. It's pretty remarkable to have the bye weeks in the rearview mirror and just a month left of regular-season action before we get to the playoffs. Between now and then, we'll look to inflate our bankroll to give us some more cash to throw around as we rocket toward the Super Bowl.
Coming off Week 14, we're in a solid position, enjoying an 8-4-1 ATS record in what proved to be a difficult slate to hammer down. I was also 12-1 straight up last week, so we'll look to keep that momentum rolling, beginning with my five locks of the week, including two notable upsets.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 31-33-1
ATS: 100-104-4
ML: 137-71
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
Steelers at Eagles
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
It's always a treat when we have an in-state matchup between the Steelers and Eagles, but this one carries with it a ton of weight in the overall playoff picture. Pittsburgh can clinch the AFC North with a win, while Philly can secure the NFC East with a win along with a Commanders loss or tie, so this will have a playoff-type atmosphere. And I foresee this being a close game where I give the Steelers the slight edge to pull off the upset.
While Saquon Barkley is in a league of his own, Pittsburgh is allowing just 4.1 yards per carry this season, tied for the fifth lowest in the league. Even if they can limit Barkley just a touch, that could be enough to stall the Eagles offense, which has struggled a bit through the air. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has been extremely kind to bettors this season as the Steelers are 6-1 both straight up and against the spread when he starts this season. The Eagles have also not fared too well at home as of late, failing to cover in four of their previous five games at Lincoln Financial Field.
Projected score: Steelers 26, Eagles 20
The pick: Steelers +5
Rams at 49ers
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
This is a game between two teams with drastically different vibes. For the 49ers, they've been mangled by injuries and are clinging to life in the NFC West at 6-7. While the Rams are just a game better than the Niners at 7-6, it feels like they are on more of the ascent and ready to make a playoff push after winning three of their last four games. That includes a shootout win over Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.
When Matthew Stafford is firing on all cylinders with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, they are nearly unstoppable on offense. When the combination of Stafford, Nacua, Kupp, and running back Kyren Williams play, the Rams are 11-5 and average 26.4 points and 376.2 total yards per game. As for San Francisco, they've struggled against the division this season, owning a 1-3 ATS record. Give me L.A. to pull off the upset in Santa Clara and officially put a fork in the 49ers' injury-plagued season.
Projected score: Rams 27, 49ers 24
The pick: Rams +2.5
Bengals at Titans
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Cincinnati Bengals are playing on a short week, but I don't think it'll matter much against these Titans. Tennessee has been the top team to fade this season, particularly when the Titans are playing in Nashville. They are the only club in the NFL that has yet to record an ATS win at home, coming into Week 15 with an 0-6 ATS record at Nissan Stadium. Meanwhile, the Bengals have been dominant on the road this season from a betting perspective. Cincy is 6-1 ATS on the road this season. On top of that, the Bengals defense -- which has been the Achilles' heel of this season -- is holding opponents to 22.9 points per game on the road compared to the 33.3 points they are allowing at home. While Tennessee is holding opponents to a league-low 175.5 passing yards per game, I don't think they'll have what it takes to slow down the combination of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins with Joe Burrow throwing them the football.
Projected score: Bengals 30, Titans 20
The pick: Bengals -5
Commanders at Saints
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Saints are in disarray in the aftermath of Derek Carr suffering a fracture to his non-throwing hand that could sideline him for the rest of the season. Now, it'll be either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler who gets the start against a Washington team that is well rested after coming off the bye in Week 14. That's a recipe for disaster for New Orleans and quite the spot for Jayden Daniels to shine as the former LSU legend looks to show out during his first trip back to Louisiana as a pro. Meanwhile, rookie quarterbacks who are favored by 7+ points are 16-1 SU and 13-4 ATS since 2019.
The Commanders defense could get a boost for this game as Marshon Lattimore -- who was acquired from the Saints at the deadline -- is eyeing to possibly make his debut in this game. This is a smash spot for Washington.
Projected score: Commanders 30, Saints 17
The pick: Commanders -7.5
Cowboys at Panthers
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
The Carolina Panthers are spunky! Last week, they made a Kentucky bettor sweat out his $3.1 million bet as they went toe to toe with the Philadelphia Eagles and nearly pulled off the upset. Now, they are favored for the first time since Dec. 18, 2022. Carolina is 5-0 ATS over the last five games after starting the year 1-7 ATS, and that's largely due to the emergence of Bryce Young. While he hasn't lit the world on fire statically, he's made timely throws and, more importantly, not made any back-breaking errors to dig his team further into a hole.
The Cowboys defense is giving up 5.9 yards per play, which is tied for the second most in the league, so it shouldn't be too tough of sledding for Carolina's offense this week at home. This could also be a big game for Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard, with Dallas allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
It's worth noting the Cowboys are also 0-6 ATS in their last six games as a single-digit underdog.
Projected score: Panthers 23, Cowboys 21
The pick: Panthers -1
Rest of the bunch
Ravens at Giants
Projected score: Ravens 33, Giants 17
The pick: Ravens -15
Chiefs at Browns
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Browns 20
The pick: Browns +4
Dolphins at Texans
Projected score: Texans 27, Dolphins 23
The pick: Texans -3
Jets at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 20, Jets 17
The pick: Jaguars +3.5
Bills at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Bills 27
The pick: Lions -1.5
Colts at Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 24, Colts 17
The pick: Broncos -3.5
Patriots at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Patriots 20
The pick: Cardinals -6
Buccaneers at Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 26, Buccaneers 21
The pick: Chargers -3
Packers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 24, Packers 21
The pick: Seahawks +3
Bears at Vikings (Monday)
Projected score: Vikings 27, Bears 17
The pick: Vikings -7
Falcons at Raiders (Monday)
Projected score: Falcons 24, Raiders 16
The pick: Falcons -4.5