With just three weeks left in the 2024 regular season, we're starting to see some separation in the standings and the securing of playoff spots. The Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs have all locked in a spot in the postseason in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings have each stamped their ticket.
While the playoff picture is coming into focus, there is still plenty that needs to be determined, setting the stage for an exciting slate in Week 16. As we turn our attention to the upcoming week, we will take our first look at the odds and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the betting markets believe will come out on top.
Week 16 early odds
All NFL odds via SportsLine Consensus
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Chargers -3 | 42.5 | Broncos +136, Chargers -161 | |
Texans at Chiefs (Saturday) | Texans -2.5 | 40.5 | Texans -135, Chiefs +114 |
Steelers at Ravens (Saturday) | Ravens -6.5 | 46 | Steelers +232, Ravens -287 |
Cardinals -4.5 | 46.5 | Cardinals -210, Panthers +175 | |
Bengals -7 | 49.5 | Browns +261, Bengals -331 | |
Lions at Bears | Lions -7.5 | 46.5 | Lions -357, Bears +283 |
Rams -3 | 47.5 | Rams -169, Jets +142 | |
Patriots at Bills | Bills -14 | 46.5 | Patriots +615, Bills -926 |
Falcons -10 | 42.5 | Giants +404, Falcons -543 | |
Eagles at Commanders | Eagles -3.5 | 46.5 | Eagles -187, Commanders +155 |
Colts -4.5 | 42.5 | Titans +180, Colts -220 | |
Vikings at Seahawks | Vikings -4.5 | 41.5 | Vikings -215, Seahawks +178 |
Raiders -1 | 39.5 | Jaguars -103, Raiders -117 | |
Dolphins -2.5 | 46.5 | 49ers +113, Dolphins -133 | |
Buccaneers -4 | 48.5 | Buccaneers -202, Cowboys +169 | |
Packers -13.5 | 42 | Saints +570, Packers -826 |
Notable movement, trends
Broncos at Chargers (Thursday)
The line for this game opened with the Chargers laying a field goal, and it's remained that way coming out of Week 15. Both of these AFC West squads have been stellar bets this season, but none more than the Broncos. Denver is a league-best 11-3 ATS, which includes a 6-1 ATS record on the road (tied for second best in the NFL). Meanwhile, the Chargers are a strong 9-5 ATS on the year, but most of their ATS losses have come at home (4-3). Both of these teams are 3-1 ATS against the division this season, but the Chargers did hand Denver its lone ATS loss back in Week 6.
Texans at Chiefs (Saturday)
Kansas City opened as a 4-point favorite at home, but the odds have since swung in the direction of Houston as the Texans are now laying 2.5 points on the road. This shift stems from Patrick Mahomes suffering a high ankle sprain during Sunday's win over the Browns. With his status uncertain, the oddsmakers are backing Houston as a favorite. This season, the Chiefs have been a tough team to back, particularly at home. At Arrowhead Stadium, the defending champs are 2-5 ATS. The Texans don't fare too much better on the road as they are 3-3-1 ATS on the year away from NRG Stadium.
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Week 16 NFL picks, including Texans-Chiefs. Check out all the projected scores at SportsLine.
Steelers at Ravens (Saturday)
Baltimore opened as a 5-point favorite, and that advantage has since grown to Ravens -6.5. Pittsburgh fell to the Eagles in Philadelphia, while Baltimore thrashed the Giants on the road. That inches the Ravens closer to the Steelers for first place in the AFC North as they trail by just one game in the loss column. A win for Baltimore would break the head-to-head tiebreaker Pittsburgh currently owns, so this game will have massive implications for how the AFC North ultimately shakes out. The Steelers are 10-4 ATS this season overall (second best in the NFL), but 5-3 ATS on the road. However, the Ravens are just 2-3-1 ATS at home.
Browns at Bengals
Cincinnati was a 4-point favorite at the open, and that has increased to a full touchdown with the line now sitting at Bengals -7 as they host Cleveland. The Browns are coming off a turnover-filled loss to the Chiefs, where they gave the ball away six times. That now has Jameis Winston's status as the team's starter in question going forward. While Cincinnati has come on strong over the last couple of weeks, they have largely struggled at home, owning a 1-5 ATS record. The Browns are equally lackluster on the road at 2-5 ATS this season, so something will need to give here.
Rams at Jets
This line has held at Rams -3 as Los Angeles now finds itself atop the NFC West. Despite that leap up in the standings, they are still neck-and-neck with the Seahawks, so there's plenty of motivation to keep the momentum rolling as they head into MetLife Stadium. The Rams are 4-3 ATS on the road this season and 3-0 ATS as a road favorite. The Jets are 2-4 ATS at home and 0-1 ATS in their lone game as a home dog.
Patriots at Bills
Buffalo opened up as a 9-point favorite, and that has ballooned to a two-touchdown spread as the line currently sits at Bills -14. Josh Allen and Co. are 9-5 ATS on the season and 4-2 ATS at home. Their average margin of victory at Highmark Stadium is 17.3 points, so they are certainly capable of clearing this big number. New England is 3-4 ATS on the road this season.
Cardinals at Panthers
The Cardinals are now a 4.5-point favorite after this line initially opened at Cardinals -3.5. At 7-7, Arizona is still in the hunt for a playoff spot and has fared well on the road, owning a 4-2 ATS record. However, they failed to cover their only game as a road favorite. As for Carolina, they are 3-4 ATS at home this season.
Lions at Bears
Detroit opened up as a slim 1.5-point favorite over Chicago, but that has since increased to -7.5 coming out of Sunday's action. The Bears did make the Lions sweat on Thanksgiving but ultimately couldn't come away with the upset, which eventually led to the firing of then-head coach Matt Eberflus. This season, Chicago has played well at home, as it is 4-1-1 ATS, but the Lions have also done extremely well on the road. Detroit has covered five of its six games away from Ford Field this season.
Giants at Falcons
The Giants were a historic underdog in Week 15 and failed to cover the 17-point spread. Now, they are again facing a double-digit spread, with the Falcons laying 10 points after the line opened at Falcons -5.5. New York is 4-10 ATS on the year and is 2-3 ATS on the road. As for the Falcons, they still have their Week 15 matchup to play on Monday night but are 3-3 ATS at home this season.
Eagles at Commanders
With the Lions losing on Sunday and the Eagles taking down Pittsburgh, the No. 1 seed in the NFC is very much in play for Philly. As they gear up for this divisional matchup against the Commanders, they are a 3.5-point favorite, adding the hook onto a line that opened at Eagles -3. Jalen Hurts' club has done well on the road this season as they are 6-1 away from Lincoln Financial Field (tied for second-best in the NFL). They are also 3-1 ATS as a road favorite. The Commanders snuck a win by the Saints in Week 15 but nearly collapsed at the last second and notched an ATS loss. Still, they are 8-5-1 ATS on the year as a whole and 5-2 ATS at home. This is the first time this season that Washington is a home underdog.
Titans at Colts
Indy is a 4.5-point favorite over the Titans, which is up a half-point after the line opened at Colts -4. Both of these AFC South clubs are coming off losses in Week 15. For Indianapolis, the collapse against Denver doesn't mathematically eliminate the Colts from playoff contention, but drastically hurt their chances of sneaking in. Despite that, they are 8-6 ATS on the season and 4-2 ATS at home. As we've noted in previous versions of this story, the Titans continue to be the worst bet in the NFL. They are 2-12 ATS on the season and 2-5 ATS on the road.
Vikings at Seahawks
Seattle lost its grip on the NFC West lead after falling to the Packers at home on Sunday night. That loss, along with Geno Smith suffering an injury during the game, has contributed to this line swinging from Seahawks -2.5 at the open to Vikings -4.5. The Seahawks have struggled at home this season, owning a 2-6 ATS record at Lumen Field. They are also 1-4 ATS as home underdogs. As for the Vikings, they are 3-2-1 ATS on the road this year, which includes a 2-2-1 ATS record as a road favorite.
Jaguars at Raiders
The line for this game has been turned on its head. Initially, the Jaguars were a 1-point favorite, but now the Raiders are laying the point as a slim home favorite. Las Vegas is 5-8 ATS on the year and are 2-3 ATS at home. Meanwhile, the Jags are surprisingly 7-6-1 ATS on the year and are 4-2 ATS on the road.
49ers at Dolphins
San Francisco opened as a 2-point favorite for this game, but the odds have since shifted to the Dolphins, who are laying 2.5 points at home. The Niners will have the rest advantage for this game after playing on Thursday, but they did fail to cover their lone game this season when they had extra rest. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 2-1 ATS with a rest disadvantage, so that may not factor too much into this head-to-head. What could play a role is the Dolphins' poor ATS record at home, as they are 2-5 ATS at Hard Rock Stadium this season. That said, the Niners are a league-worst 1-5 ATS on the road in 2024, so something will need to give in this matchup.
Buccaneers at Cowboys
The Buccaneers are now a 4-point favorite on the road against Dallas after this line first opened at Cowboys -4.5. Dallas has struggled mightily at home this season as their 14.3% cover rate (1-6 ATS) is the second worst in the league and only better than the Titans, who are 0-7 ATS at home. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has been stellar on the road, owning a 5-2 ATS record, which includes a 2-1 ATS mark as a road favorite.
Saints at Packers (Monday)
Green Bay is knocking on the door of being a two-touchdown favorite on Monday night as they host the Saints. The line opened at Packers -13 and has since ticked up a half-point to Packers -13.5. New Orleans is in QB disarray after starting Jake Haener and then benching him midway through Week 15 for rookie Spencer Rattler. Meanwhile, the Packers appear to be rounding into shape and are looking to secure a playoff spot. Green Bay is 4-3 ATS at home this season, while New Orleans is 2-4 ATS on the road.
