It's pretty crazy how quickly the first month of the NFL season has gone by, but we'll largely be happy to see it go by the wayside. The public as a whole was treading water rather quickly through the first two weeks, including yours truly. However, things are starting to find their level with a solid outing in Week 3. Overall, I was 9-7 ATS on the slate and nailed three of my five locks of the week.
Tampa Bay's no-show against Denver and the Bears' failure to put up points against the Colts were our lone losses out of the five locks, but we'll look to grasp onto that positive momentum as we look toward Week 4.
2024 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 6-9
ATS: 19-26-3
ML: 25-23
All NFL odds via SportsLine consensus odds.
Cowboys at Giants
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
After dropping to 1-2, this feels like an early kitchen-sink game for Dallas against a beatable opponent in the New York Giants. Dak Prescott has played extremely well against the Giants in his career, owning a 12-2 career record while throwing for 27 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. On top of that, the Dallas QB has also played well on Thursdays. Including Thanksgiving, Prescott is 5-0 in his previous five games on Thursdays with 12 total touchdowns and five picks while averaging 282.2 yards passing. The Cowboys are also 5-0 ATS on the road against the Giants when Prescott starts. On the flip side, Daniel Jones in prime time has been a favorable fade option as he is 1-12 under the prime-time lights in his career.
Projected score: Cowboys 27, Giants 17
The pick: Cowboys -4.5
Rams at Bears
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo)
This line opened at Bears -1 and has since moved to where the Rams will be catching a full field goal heading into Soldier Field on Sunday. I don't know about you, but I'd ride into Mordor with Sean McVay if he has a field goal in his pocket. The coach-quarterback duo of McVay and Matthew Stafford gives me confidence that they can head into Chicago and take on a still-developing Bears team and cover, if not win outright. Yes, the defense has struggled to find its footing, but the Chicago offense has struggled mightily this season as well. As a club, the Bears have just three offensive touchdowns through three weeks, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL. If those growing pains continue in this game, we'll be happy to have a field-goal cushion.
Projected score: Rams 23, Bears 21
The pick: Rams +3
Chiefs at Chargers
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Los Angeles won't have star safety Derwin James for this matchup after he was suspended by the league on Monday. On top of that substantial dent they'll have to deal with defensively, Justin Herbert's status is in question after aggravating his high ankle sprain in the loss to Pittsburgh. While the Chiefs haven't been firing on all cylinders yet this season, they've found ways to win and should create plenty of space between them and the Chargers to come away with a double-digit victory. It's also worth noting that the Chiefs are 8-1 ATS over their last nine games dating to last season (including playoffs).
Projected score: Chiefs 27, Chargers 17
The pick: Chiefs -8
Steelers at Colts
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
Pittsburgh's defense is legit, and you could make a very strong case that it's the best in the NFL at the moment. The Steelers are the first team to hold opponents to 10 or fewer points in each of their first three games since the 2009 Denver Broncos. Pair how well the Steelers defense has looked with the struggles that Anthony Richardson has had under center, and this could be a rough day at the office for Indy. To further hammer the latter point down, Richardson has the lowest completion percentage (49.3%) and the most interceptions (6) in the NFL this season. On the flip side, Justin Fields has been playing well and keeping the Steelers offense moving at a respectable level. I'll happily lay less than a field goal in this spot.
Projected score: Steelers 23, Colts 19
The pick: Steelers -2
Bonus: Larry Hartstein also loves the Steelers to cover the spread as part of his weekly best bets, where he is 83-52-3 since 2022. Check out which side he's taking against the spread in two other best bets at SportsLine.
Jaguars at Texans
- Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
It's hard to have any faith in the Jaguars turning things around at this juncture. Jacksonville put together a lifeless effort in its Monday night loss to the Bills in Buffalo and now have a quick turnaround against its top division rival on the road. The Jaguars are also 1-7 ATS in their last eight games started by Trevor Lawrence. The Texans, meanwhile, will be looking to bounce back off of a loss of their own in Week 3 as the Vikings throttled them in Minnesota. C.J. Stroud was sensational against the Jaguars last season, completing 70% of his throws for 292 passing yards per game, five total touchdowns, and zero interceptions. And if that continues into 2024, Doug Pederson's seat will be white hot.
Projected score: Texans 28, Jaguars 20
The pick: Texans -6
Rest of the bunch
Saints at Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 27, Saints 23
The pick: Falcons -1.5
Vikings at Packers
Projected score: Packers 23, Vikings 20
The pick: Packers -2.5
Broncos at Jets
Projected score: Jets 28, Broncos 16
The pick: Jets -7
Eagles at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 24, Eagles 21
The pick: Buccaneers +2.5
Bengals at Panthers
Projected score: Bengals 27, Panthers 23
The pick: Panthers +4.5
Commanders at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Commanders 24
The pick: Commanders +3.5
Patriots at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 27, Patriots 16
The pick: 49ers -10
Browns at Raiders
Projected score: Raiders 21, Browns 17
The pick: Raiders -1
Bills at Ravens
Projected score: Bills 28, Ravens 26
The pick: Bills +2.5
Titans at Dolphins (Monday)
Projected score: Dolphins 17, Titans 14
The pick: Dolphins +1
Seahawks at Lions (Monday)
Projected score: Lions 27, Seahawks 21
The pick: Lions -4