I have been known to exaggerate, but I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say that Week 7 has the potential to go down as the best week in NFL history.
The week kicks off with Sean Payton returning to New Orleans on Thursday, and then we get the 5-0 Vikings playing the 4-1 Lions on Sunday night. Great decision by the NFL to put that game in prime time. Actually, hold on, I've just been informed that Lions-Vikings is NOT the Sunday night game.
Obviously, Chiefs-49ers is the Sunday night game because putting a Super Bowl rematch in that slot is the only thing that makes sense this week.OK, I don't know how to tell you guys this, but I'm wrong again.
You know what, I don't even care what the Sunday night game is this week. I watched Bengals-Giants last week, so at this point, it's pretty clear I'll watch anything. And when I say anything, I mean that I might even wake up early to watch the Jaguars play the Patriots in London.
Anyway, let's get to the picks, starting with the London game.
All NFL odds via BetMGM | FanDuel | DraftKings
NFL Week 7 picks
Jacksonville (1-5) vs. New England (1-5) in London
9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Point spread pick: Jaguars (-5.5 at BetMGM)
I'm not sure what qualifies as rock bottom in the NFL, but I'm 99% sure that Jacksonville is there. Since the Jaguars are spending the week in another country, you might not be following what's going on with them, so let me give you a quick update:
- Players are apparently already quitting on the team. We're not even halfway through the season and Jaguars players are already starting to give up. One player said he noticed a lot of quit on the field during the team's 35-16 loss to the Bears in London.
- Doug Pederson says the team needs a culture change. "We've got to change. I say 'we;' it's all of us: coaches, players, everybody. We've got to change right now that culture," Pederson said after the loss to the Bears.
When your head coach is calling for a culture change in the middle of October, that seems like a problem. I mean, Pederson had an entire offseason to instill a culture in this year's team and after just six weeks, he's giving up on it. That's not a good sign. The only person who could truly make a culture change in the organization is Jaguars owner Shad Khan, and he could do that by firing Pederson. I don't want to set any alarm bells off for Pederson as he heads into this week's game, but firing your head coach after a London game is becoming a hot new trend with owners.
The biggest reason the Jaguars are struggling is because the offense is broken. The Jags are paying Trevor Lawrence $55 million per year when they probably could have just signed Joe Flacco for $4.5 million this season and gotten the same production. Also, they could have used the $50.5 million in savings to buy some new thongs for Jaxson De Ville.
Although Lawrence has certainly struggled at times, he's also not getting any help from his receivers, who seem to drop every perfect pass that he throws.
The only silver lining this week is that the Jaguars get to face a Patriots team that has one of the worst defenses is in the NFL. This feels like the game where Lawrence will finally be able to get the offense going.
If the Jags lose on Sunday, Khan might make Pederson walk home from London. I'm not even sure if that's possible, so I'm just going to pick the Jaguars for Pederson's sake.
The pick: Jaguars 24-17 over Patriots
Houston (5-1) at Green Bay (4-2)
1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Point spread pick: Texans (+3 at BetMGM)
I'm not sure what the biggest mismatch is right now in the NFL, but I'm going to go ahead and say that it's the NFC North versus any team from the AFC South. Through six weeks, the NFC North has played seven games against the AFC South and they've gone 5-2. Watching an AFC South team try to beat an NFC North team is like watching four baby antelopes try to fend off a hungry lion.
Although the AFC South only has two wins against the NFC North, one of those did come from the Texans and that likely has to do with the fact that Houston is the only good team in the division.
The Texans have the NFL's leading receiver in Nico Collins, but he won't be playing this week. Normally, that's a bad thing when your star receiver can't play, but I actually think Houston might be able to survive his absence against the Packers, and that's mostly because Joe Mixon is back in the lineup.
Mixon missed three games due to injury this season, but then he returned in a Week 6 win over the Patriots where he totaled 132 yards and two touchdowns. For Mixon, 102 of those yards came on the ground, which is the more notable number here, because when the Texans rushing attack gets rolling, they're almost impossible to beat. Since drafting C.J. Stroud in 2023, the Texans are 9-1 when they rush for at least 100 yards, which is something they've already done three times this year. Mixon has gone over that number by himself in both of the games where he was fully healthy this season.
The Packers have actually been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but when it comes to stopping the pass, they've been one of the worst teams in the NFL. Green Bay is surrendering 228.7 passing yards per game, which is the eighth-worst number in the NFL, and now, they have to face a QB in Stroud who has the sixth-most passing yards in the league.
This just feels like a game where the Packers defense could struggle.
That being said, the Packers are debuting their White Cheddar look and that alone is almost enough to make me want to pick them.
I think we see a shootout that ends with a game-winning field goal, and I have no faith in Packers' kicker Brayden Narveson to hit a game-winning kick, so I'll have to take the Texans.
Yup, I'm definitely taking the Texans (OCT. 15 UPDATE: It appears the Packers also have no faith in Narveson. He was cut and replaced by Brandon McManus on Tuesday... but I'm still taking the Texans).
The pick: Texans 30-27 over Packers
Detroit (4-1) at Minnesota (5-0)
1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Vikings (-1.5 at BetMGM)
This game is coming at the worst possible time for the Lions, who just lost Aidan Hutchinson (most likely) for the season. I emailed Roger Goodell and asked him if the NFL could postpone this game until Hutchinson gets back. He hasn't responded yet, so I'll take that to mean that he's still considering my proposal.
Hutchinson will miss the rest of the season -- though might possibly return in time for the Super Bowl -- after breaking his fibula and tibia in Week 6 against the Cowboys and I would share the clip here, but I don't want to give anyone nightmares, so I'm not going to do it. The problem for the Lions is that with Hutchinson out, their pass rush will likely be almost completely nonexistent. Through the first six weeks of the season, the Lions have 15 sacks, and Hutchinson has HALF of those. His 7.5 sacks lead the NFL even though he has played 1.5 games fewer than most other players.
When Hutchinson was playing, the Lions were already struggling to stop the pass and I have to think that things are only going to get worse now that he's out. The Lions have surrendered 246.2 yards per game through the air, which is the sixth-worst number in the NFL, so that could open the door for Sam Darnold to have a big game. Of course, one of the five teams that's actually worse than the Lions at stopping the pass is the Vikings, who are giving up an average of 263 yards per game. That number is kind of deceiving, though, because the Vikings have been beating teams so badly that their opponents have been forced to pass in the second half.
If Aidan Hutchinson didn't get injured, I would have thought about taking the Lions, but with Hutchinson out, I think I have to go with the Vikings here.
The pick: Vikings 27-24 over Lions
Take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code.
Kansas City (5-0) at San Francisco (3-3)
4:25 p.m. ET (Fox)
Point spread pick: Chiefs (+1.5 at FanDuel)
The last time we saw these two teams on the field together came back in February when the Chiefs beat the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII. The biggest difference between that game and this game is that the 49ers won't have their leading rusher (Christian McCaffrey) or their leading receiver (also Christian McCaffrey) from the Super Bowl.
Despite that, the 49ers are somehow favored in this game and let me just tell you, if there's one quarterback you never want to bet against when he's an underdog, it's Patrick Mahomes. Over the course of his career, Mahomes has been an underdog a total of 13 times and in those 13 games, the Chiefs have gone 10-3 straight up and 11-1-1 against the spread.
The last time the Chiefs were an underdog actually came in Super Bowl LVIII and we all saw how that ended for San Francisco.
This really feels like a game where the 49ers are catching the Kansas City at the wrong time. The Chiefs offense looked a little sluggish through the first four weeks of the season, but then everything seemed to click in Week 5. During a 26-13 win over the Saints, Kareem Hunt topped 100 yards rushing and JuJu Smith-Schuster was the Chiefs' leading receiver with 130 yards. And no, that is not a sentence from 2018: Hunt and Smith-Schuster both topped 100 yards.
The Chiefs don't have the best receiving weapons right now, but Mahomes has figured out how to use the ones he does have. The 49ers secondary has already been diced up by Sam Darnold and Geno Smith this year, so I don't feel good about their chances going up against Mahomes. Also, let's not forget that the Chiefs will be coming off a bye and there is no one more unbeatable off a bye than Andy Reid. The Chiefs coach is 21-4 in the regular season coming off a bye. It's almost like the NFL wants the 49ers to lose this game.
The pick: Chiefs 26-23 over 49ers
Baltimore (4-2) at Tampa Bay (4-2)
8:15 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN)
Point spread pick: Ravens (-3.5 at DraftKings)
I hope everyone is planning on staying up extra late this Monday because we have another doubleheader coming our way. It's the third one this season and if I've learned anything from the first two, it's that I don't like Monday doubleheaders.
On my personal list of things I don't like, the Monday doubleheader definitely ranks up high. Here are the current top-five things I dislike the most (and keep in mind that this list changes weekly):
1. Peeling an orange
2. When my 4-year-old spreads Legos around the house on purpose because she likes to set booby traps
3. People who don't use their blinker
4. Small cats
5. Monday doubleheaders
This week, the Ravens and Buccaneers will be kicking off at 8:15 p.m. and that's the EARLY game. The second game will be kicking off at 9 p.m. ET with the Chargers facing the Cardinals on ESPN+. I think this is actually some sort of test by the NFL to see how far fans are willing to go to watch a game. Not only is the NFL putting Chargers-Cardinals in a late window, but they're making us pay to watch it on ESPN+.
As for these two games, the Cardinals are 2-0 against NFC West teams, but 0-4 against everyone else and the Chargers fall into that "everyone else" category. The Cardinals defense has been a disaster: They've given up the sixth-most points in the NFL this year, so it won't be surprising if the Chargers have a big game on offense. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers defense has given up the FEWEST points in the NFL and they get to face a Cardinals team that has scored 14 points or less in three of the past four weeks. Now that I'm thinking about it, this game should not be on ESPN+. No one should have to pay to watch the Cardinals offense.
If you can't tell by now, I will be definitely taking the Chargers.
As for the other game, the Ravens are one of the hottest teams in football and that's mostly because their offense is impossible to stop. Stopping the Ravens offense is like trying to solve a Rubik's Cube while blindfolded and underwater and you can't come up until you figured it out. It's not going to end well. Sure, you might slow down Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson -- you probably won't, but you might -- but even if you do, you now have to deal with Baltimore's passing game. Jackson has thrown for at least 300 yards in back-to-back games for just the second time in his career, and now, he gets to face a Buccaneers defense that has had some trouble stopping the pass.
Also, Jackson never loses to NFC teams. I mentioned this last week and I'll mention it again: Over the course of his career, he's 22-1 against the NFC, which includes 10 straight wins over the conference, so until that streak ends, I'll automatically be picking him to beat any NFC opponent he plays.
The pick: Ravens 31-24 over Buccaneers
The pick: Chargers 24-16 over Cardinals
NFL Week 7 picks: All the rest
Saints 20-16 over Broncos (If Derek Carr plays)
Broncos 20-16 over Saints (If Derek Carr doesn't play)
Falcons 27-20 over Seahawks
Bills 24-16 over Titans
Bengals 20-17 over Browns
Colts 23-16 over Dolphins
Eagles 30-20 over Giants
Rams 31-17 over Raiders
Commanders 34-24 over Panthers
Jets 19-16 over Steelers
BYES: Bears, Cowboys
Last Week
Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Steelers would go on the road and handily beat the Raiders, and guess what happened? The Steelers went on the road and handily beat the Raiders. Look, if there was any team that was going to get blown out last week, it was definitely the Raiders. They benched their starting quarterback, their star receiver doesn't want to play for them and their best defensive player is ready to fight all of his coaches.
If those three things aren't a recipe for disaster, I don't know what is.
Worst pick: I only missed two picks last week, but I would've only missed one pick if Greg Zuerlein could make a field goal. The Jets kicker missed TWO kicks from inside 43 yards, including a 32-yarder, which was the shortest miss by any kicker this season. Why are the Jets sticking with Zuerlein when there's a donkey out there who can make a 100-yard field goal?!
I will be contacting Gus' agent this week to see if he's interested in playing for the Jets.
Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I'm going to start sharing that information with you now that we're five weeks into the season. Here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picks this year.
Teams I'm 5-1 picking this year (Straight up): Texans, Titans (4-1)
Teams I've only picked correctly once this year (Straight up): Rams (1-4)
Every other team is somewhere in the middle.
Picks record
Straight up in Week 6: 12-2
SU overall: 48-44
Against the spread in Week 6: 9-5
ATS overall: 41-48-3
You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably trying to figure out what the Sunday night game is this week.