A nice 4-1 top-five betting week for us. The Denver Broncos destroyed the short-handed New Orleans Saints, the Buffalo Bills blew out the Tennessee Titans and the Washington Commanders even beat the Carolina Panthers without Jayden Daniels. But the BetMGM sportsbook did get the best of me when I backed Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. 

This week, two $55 million quarterbacks in Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence face off, Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return to the starting lineup and the San Francisco 49ers look to rebound vs. the Dallas Cowboys. If you haven't yet, take advantage of a sign-up bonus for new users with this BetMGM promo code so you can make money too. 

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

All NFL sports betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Top five picks ATS record: 15-19-1
Overall ATS record: 43-61-3
Straight up record: 64-43

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Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

The Lions are the best team in the NFL right now in my opinion. The Titans are easily bottom five. Detroit is actually the first team since the 1959-60 Browns to record more offensive touchdowns than incompletions over a four-game span. Jared Goff boasts an 83.5% completion percentage in his last four games, which is the best mark in a four-game span in NFL HISTORY.

The Titans have already traded wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and linebacker Ernest Jones, and more moves could be on the way. The vibes aren't great in Tennessee. As for the Lions, this will be their first home game in about a month, so Detroit will be rocking. 

The pick: Lions -11.5
Projected score: Lions 35-17

Jared Goff Over 1.5 passing touchdowns is -140. Bet his props at BetMGM Sportsbook

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Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox and fubo, try for free)

Another matchup between the two favorites in the NFC South. Both teams are coming off of demoralizing losses, but the Bucs' loss was worse considering they lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. If the Falcons can stop the run, they should win this game.

I'd like to call this the Bijan Robinson revenge game. Remember last year in Tampa when he recorded just one carry because he wasn't feeling well and no one had any idea about it? He's scored three touchdowns over the last two games after visiting the end zone just once in the first five games of the season. The Buccaneers defense is not as good as it has been in years past. They've missed 78 tackles this season. Only the Las Vegas Raiders have missed more. 

The Falcons are 2-0 ATS on the road this season. Give me Kirk Cousins and the boys. 

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The pick: Falcons -2.5
Projected score: Falcons 24-17

Baltimore Ravens (-9) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Here comes king Jameis Winston to save the Browns' season. I say that tongue-in-cheek, but he has to be an upgrade over Deshaun Watson, right? No one should celebrate an injury, but the fact of the matter is Watson ranked dead last in yards per dropback among the 474 quarterbacks that have recorded at least 200 dropbacks through seven games since 2006. 

I'm aware the Ravens are red-hot, and that Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are apparently the best QB-RB duo ever, but they are on a short week against a familiar opponent. Over the last seven matchups between Baltimore and Cleveland, the Browns have lost by double digits just once. Give me Winston and the Browns to cover the large number!

The pick: Browns +9
Projected score: Ravens 26-20

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-10)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

All I've done is fade the Panthers over the past couple weeks, and back the Broncos. So it's only natural I choose this game as a best bet. You will notice there are some big spreads this week. I think it's because favorites have fared nicely against the spread over the past two weeks. The Broncos just defeated the Saints by 23 points, so I think they can handle the worst team in the NFL at home.

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Bryce Young is back at quarterback after Andy Dalton's unfortunate car accident. I expect him to look better than he did in Weeks 1-2, but not necessarily "good" against this incredible Broncos defense. I think I'm more worried about the Panthers defense than I am the Panthers offense. Carolina has lost four straight games by double digits, and have allowed at least 34 points in four consecutive games. The Panthers have been outscored by a whopping 133 points over the first seven games. That's the fifth-worst point margin since 2000.

The pick: Broncos -10
Projected score: Broncos 28-16

Bet Bo Nix props at BetMGM 

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC and fubo, try for free)

As you probably know, the 49ers own the Cowboys. They've won three straight meetings vs. Dallas, which is coming off a much-needed bye after being blown out by Detroit, 47-9. I'm aware the 49ers are banged-up and lost Brandon Aiyuk for the year, but the Cowboys have the second-worst scoring defense (28 points allowed per game) and what is by far the worst rushing offense (77.2 rushing yards per game). 

Maybe some expect the Cowboys to begin a new chapter after the bye, but having to play in San Francisco is a tough place to start. The Cowboys are 0-3 ATS vs. NFC teams this year, while the 49ers are 2-0 ATS in prime time in 2024. 

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The pick: 49ers -4
Projected score: 49ers 27-20

Other Week 8 picks