Pick Six: Buccaneers-Cowboys predictions for Thursday night, plus NFL Week 5 picks and trade possibilities

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

After watching my wife order roughly 40 things from Amazon during its Prime Day event this week, I was going to cancel our Prime membership, but then I remembered that I need it to watch Thursday's game between the Buccaneers and Cowboys. So, I guess I'll be holding on to it for a few more weeks.  

The Buccaneers have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and if you're wondering just how bad they've been, you can find out Thursday by watching this game. That's probably not how Amazon will promote this game, but that's how I'm promoting it. If Todd Bowles is sweating profusely, that's probably because he's sitting squarely on the hot seat in Tampa Bay. 

Speaking of the hot seat, in today's newsletter, we'll be taking a look at the coaches who have the hottest seat heading into Week 5, plus, we'll be breaking down Thursday's game with some picks and best bets. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Buccaneers at Cowboys

The Buccaneers (0-4) have been one of the worst teams in the NFL this year, and things likely aren't going to get much better for them on Thursday. 

The Bucs will be going into Dallas looking for their first win of the season, and if they're going to pull off the upset, they're going to have to do it without Baker Mayfield. The Bucs QB has already been ruled out of the game with a thumb injury, and Jalon Daniels will be starting in his place. The undrafted rookie will make his first road start of his career in this game (he did start in Tampa Bay's Week 4 loss to the Packers, but that was at home). 

As for the Cowboys (2-2), a win here would move them above .500 for the first time this season. 

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game: 

• Why the Buccaneers can win: The Bucs offense hasn't been great this year, but facing the Cowboys might fix that. Through the first four weeks, the Cowboys have given up the third-most yards in the NFL (389.5 per game). The Cowboys have really struggled to stop the run: They're surrendering 150.3 yards per game on the ground, the second-most in the league. With a rookie QB under center, the Bucs' game plan here should be simple: Run the ball early and run it often. The Bucs have two talented running backs in Bucky Irving and Kenneth Gainwell, and if Tampa can them going, that might be enough to help the Bucs pull off the upset. 
• Why the Cowboys can win: The Cowboys have the more talented team on paper, and they need to take advantage of that by putting the Buccaneers away quickly with an early barrage of points. The best way to do that is to force a few turnovers, which should be easy to do against a Tampa Bay offense that's averaging over two turnovers per game this year. Through the first four weeks, the Bucs actually have the second-worst turnover differential in the NFL at -5. If the Cowboys can put their foot on Tampa Bay's throat early, they should be able to turn this game into a blowout. One thing the Cowboys absolutely need to do is stop the run, which they've struggled to do all year. If they struggle again, that could allow Tampa Bay to stay in the game by controlling the clock and keeping the Cowboys' offense off the field. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. 

• ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Jalon Daniels OVER 43.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel): Daniels made the first start of his career in Week 4, and he had 55 rushing yards against the Packers. It's hard to say for certain if he'll get near that total again, but I like his chances. The Cowboys' defense has given up the most rushing yards to quarterbacks this year at 47 yards per game. That's 10 more yards per game than the next closest team. Also, Daniels is a rookie, and young QBs tend to take off running when their first or second read isn't open, so I could see him running a lot tonight. 
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Brandon Aubrey OVER 1.5 field goals (-110 at FanDuel): There's no team that loves attempting field goals more than the Cowboys. Aubrey has attempted 11 on the season, which is tied for the second most in the NFL. Also, he's made at least two field goals in THREE straight games. And one more thing: Teams facing the Buccaneers this season are averaging 2.8 field goals per game, which is tied for the most in the NFL. Teams have been settling for field goals against Tampa because the Bucs red zone defense has been impressive despite the team's poor record.  
  

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 6-10 (2-6 on kicker props and 4-4 on all other props). After starting off 5-3, I'm now 1-7 on my last eight props. That's clearly a sign that you should be fading me until further notice.

And now, it's time for some picks. 

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Jared Dubin's pick: Cowboys 34-17 over Buccaneers
John Breech's pick: Cowboys 27-17 over Buccaneers
Jordan Dajani's pick: Cowboys 30-20 over Buccaneers
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Cowboys 34-20 over Buccaneers
Prisco's pick: Cowboys 34-14 over Buccaneers

Not only are we all taking the Cowboys, but we all have them winning by double digits. This would certainly be an epic choke job if the Cowboys somehow manage to lose this game. 

Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, everyone is taking the Cowboys to win. 

2. NFL Week 5 picks: Packers, Colts and 49ers all win as underdogs

Welcome to the part of the newsletter where we hand out picks. We have five NFL writers — Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan, Jared Dubin and myself — handing out picks each week. Last week, we finished in a five-way tie for first place for the first time in the newsletter's history. This week, we have another tie after Sullivan Dubin and I both went 10-6. I would tell you how Prisco and Dajani did, but that might embarrass them, so let's move on to Week 5. 

If you're new here, here's how things work: I'll give you one Week 5 pick from each writer and then direct you to the rest of their picks for the week. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all their Week 5 picks; if you hate it, you can ignore the rest and move on with your life. 

• Pete Prisco — Packers (+3) 27-24 over Bears. From Prisco: "These two don't like each other. The Bears have been great running the ball, but this could be the game where playing without Caleb Williams shows up. Look for Jordan Love to have a big day throwing it on the other side — finally. The Packers win it in an upset. " For the rest of Prisco's Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
• Tyler Sullivan — Jaguars (-6.5) 30-17 over Eagles. From Sullivan: "The vibes around the Eagles are either at or near an all-time low. They just blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Rams in Week 4, are remarkably banged up and just saw Lane Johnson announce his retirement. It's unclear if Saquon Barkley (hamstring) or DeVonta Smith (hamstring) will play this week as Philly heads to London to face Jacksonville this weekend. If neither is able to go, that'd be an offense reeling after failing to convert a single one of its 12 third-down opportunities last week. The Jags are too hot to fade at the moment, and face an Eagles team that feels like they are about to roll over." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 5 picks, be sure to click here.
• Jordan Dajani — Falcons (-2.5) 27-21 over Ravens. From Dajani: "I don't want to declare the Atlanta Falcons the greatest show on turf just because they destroyed the Packers and New Orleans Saints, but Michael Penix Jr. has looked comfortable in his return to the field. I would like to see Lamar Jackson take the field in this game, but it looks like it will be Tyler Huntley instead. "Snoop" is not the worst backup quarterback in the world, but he couldn't get the Ravens to score a single point in the second half vs. the Titans." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released Friday, but you can get a preview here.
• Jared Dubin — Colts (+2.5) 20-16 over Steelers. From Dubin: "The Steelers have looked good for exactly one of their three games so far this year, and that was in a game against a Bengals defense that now looks a lot friendlier than it did through the first two weeks of the season. The Colts also have a fairly friendly defense, but I frankly don't trust the Steelers as far as Aaron Rodgers or I can throw them, so I'm taking the Colts to win a low-ish scoring game on the back of Jonathan Taylor." For the rest of Dubin's Week 5 picks, be sure to click here. 
• John Breech — 49ers (+3) 27-24 over Seahawks. From me: "This coaching matchup is basically like watching Garry Kasparov vs. Magnus Carlsen play each other in chess. I don't know if they've ever actually faced each other, but those are the only two chess names I know outside of Bobby Fischer, so we're going to stick with them. It's a true battle of wits here. Kyle Shanahan will adjust to whatever Mike Macdonald's doing, and then Macdonald will adjust to Shanahan's adjustments. I think this is going to be a tight game, but I'm riding with the 49ers. Shanahan is going to use Brock Purdy to put the Seahawks in checkmate." For the rest of my Week 5 picks, be sure to click here. 

For more Week 5 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page here. 

3. NFL hot seat rankings: Todd Bowles really needs a win tonight

With the Buccaneers getting set to play tonight, now seems like a good time to talk about who has the hottest seat in the NFL. 

Bryan DeArdo went through and ranked the coaches who are sitting in the hottest seats heading into Week 5, and to no one's surprise, Todd Bowles is at the top. Here are the top three names on his list:  

1. Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles. Players may love Bowles, but the Buccaneers' ongoing struggles are what they are. The Buccaneers are 2-12 in their last 14 games dating back to last season. That ultimately falls on the head coach. In retrospect, the Buccaneers' offseason set them up for failure. They lost franchise icon Mike Evans after he signed with the 49ers. The Buccaneers then had to deal with the distraction of Baker Mayfield's contract extension, which didn't get done until September. Are all of these issues Bowles' fault? They aren't, but a head coach is the person most responsible for the team's record. Heavy lies the crown, after all. 

2. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh was brought to Los Angeles to help Justin Herbert get to the next level. Instead, the Chargers have had two seasons without a playoff win and are currently 0-4. For those who think that Harbaugh's previous success might buy him more time, Chargers owner Dean Spanos infamously fired Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season.

3. Jets coach Aaron Glenn. The Jets have lost three straight games and are 4-17 since the start of the 2025 season, Glenn's first in the Big Apple. Record aside, it appears that the Jets are content to give Glenn more time to turn things around. He's signed through the 2029 season, and, based on previous comments made by Woody Johnson, it seems that the Jets' owner wants to exude more patience this time around. A horrible season, however, might compel Johnson to make yet another coaching change.

There are 10 total coaches on DeArdo's list, including TWO of the four from the NFC North. If you want to check out the full ranking, you can do that here. 

4. NFL quarter-season grades: Browns earn high mark, Packers almost fail out

With four weeks in the books, we're roughly 25% of the way through the regular season, so to celebrate, we're going to hand out some quarter-season grades. Technically, each team has only played 23.5% of its schedule, but we're going to ignore that fact and hand out these grades anyway (I have to say, it was much easier to figure out when the season was 25% over back when the teams only played 16 games each). 

Anyway, these grades were handed out by Zach Pereles and we're going to break them down by conference. Here are the grades for two teams from the AFC:

• Browns: A-. Deshaun Watson has produced solid quarterback play and has been even better late with three straight game-winning drives. Rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion have impressed at wide receiver, and Spencer Fano and Austin Barber are holding up along the offensive line. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren has had his moments at safety. Mason Graham was taking a huge step (pre-injury) in his second year. GM Andrew Berry and early Coach of the Year frontrunner Todd Monken should be very excited.
• Chargers: F. There's not much left to say about the Chargers that hasn't been said already. They are awful. They lost a game to the Bills in which they forced five turnovers. They lost to the Cardinals. The Mike McDaniel offense, so hyped up all summer, is 29th in EPA per play, 24th in success rate and 24th in explosive play rate. If you can't check any of those three boxes, you're going to have a bad time.

If you want to see all the grades from the AFC, we've got those here. 

And now, let's check out two grades from the NFC:

• Rams: C-. This simply doesn't look like a superteam. Matthew Stafford has six interceptions after eight all of last year. His accuracy is down, and the explosives are down, though Puka Nacua will help the latter. The defense is not only without Myles Garrett but also Aaron Donald and Jaylen Watson. All things considered, 2-2 isn't the end of the world, but the way it looks isn't inspiring at all.
• Packers D+. There are gigantic issues running the ball (31st in success rate) and stopping the run (28th in success rate). The Packers are scrambling at the offensive line. Jordan Love already has three interceptions; he threw six all of last year. The defense just lost Edgerrin Cooper to a torn Achilles. Micah Parsons' looming return will help, but there are just so many issues here.

For Zach's full NFC grades, be sure to read his full story here. 

5. NFL trade deadline: 10 players who could be dealt 

Don't look now, but the NFL trade deadline is just around the corner. It's coming on Nov. 10, which is just one month from Saturday. Between now and then, we'll be talking a lot about the deadline, and we'll get started today by looking at a few players who could be dealt.

Over the past week alone, we've seen Cam Jurgens get traded to the Ravens and Joey Porter Jr. get dealt to the Cowboys, so teams are ready to wheel and deal. 

With that in mind, Jordan Dajani made a list of 10 players who could get dealt. Check out three of them below. 

• Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Given how this season has started, it's fair to list former No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. as a potential trade target. The Arizona Cardinals wideout has never averaged more than 52 yards per game in any of his three seasons, and his production is trending the wrong way. Through four games, Harrison has caught just five passes for 85 yards and one touchdown. Potential landing spot: Colts (NOTE: Ryan Wilson actually took a deeper look at whether a new team might be able to unlock Harrison's talent, and you can check out his answer to that here). 
• Chargers EDGE Khalil Mack. This is a 35-year-old player on an expiring deal, playing for a team that's arguably the biggest disappointment in the NFL this season. He should be helping a contender. Wouldn't it be something if he returned to Chicago, where he spent 2018-2021? Potential landing spot: Bears
• Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. He's played under 63% of offensive snaps in each game this year, and is averaging just 26.3 yards per game. It felt like his play forced the Jaguars to go out and pick up Jakobi Meyers at last year's trade deadline, who came in and led the team in targets (61), receptions (42) and receiving yards (483) from the day he was acquired to the end of the regular season. If the Jags trust rookie Josh Cameron will continue to ascend, could Jacksonville entertain offers for Thomas? Potential landing spot: Raiders

If you want to see Jordan's full list of trade candidates, we've got that here. 

6. Extra points: NFL will allow drinking celebrations

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Players won't be fined for drinking celebrations. The NFL got a little crazy this season with the league handing out fines to any player who simulated drinking a beer while doing a TD celebration (even if they weren't actually drinking a beer). Kyle Juszczyk got fined more than $14,000 for "chugging a beer." Of course, his nickname is "Juice," and he eventually had his fine rescinded when he explained to the NFL that he was drinking juice. Going forward, this won't be an issue for anyone because players will be allowed to celebrate a big play by simulating drinking, whether that's beer, juice or water. We have the full details on the policy change here. 
• Jayden Daniels might play Sunday. The Commanders QB has missed two games since dislocating his elbow in Week 2, but he might be back on the field this week. Daniels, who will be wearing a brace on his left elbow going forward, was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, which is a sign that the Commanders are readying him to play. If Daniels isn't quite ready, then rookie QB Athan Kaliakmanis will get the start against the Giants on Sunday (Marcus Mariota won't be playing after suffering an MCL injury in Week 4). 
• Texans make major change on defense. After watching his defense struggle through the first four weeks, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans has decided to take over defensive play-calling duties from defensive coordinator Matt Burke. The 0-4 Texans had the best defense in the NFL last year, but this season, they rank near the bottom of the league in most categories. They've surrendered 27.3 points per game, which is the seventh-most in the NFL. They're also giving up nearly 350 yards per game. You can't fault Ryans for trying something different, and if the Texans play well this week against the winless Titans, you can bet he'll be handing the job going forward.