NFL training camps are right around the corner, which means the NFL season is as well. With free agency and the NFL Draft behind us, the offseason is essentially over when it comes to teams finding ways to improve. Which teams are getting overhyped at this stage? And which teams aren't being talked about enough?
Below, we will attempt to identify the teams that could provide us with the biggest win discrepancies compared to the lines posted at sportsbooks. Last year, we saw the Houston Texans go 10-7 after being predicted to win 5.5 games, while the Carolina Panthers disappointed by going 2-15 after being projected to win 7.5 games. Who will those teams be this year?
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook
Los Angeles Rams: Over 8.5 (-150)
The Rams did lose Aaron Donald this offseason, so Vegas expects them to take a couple of steps backwards in 2024. Why? L.A. went 10-7 last year and made the playoffs, and had a "Big Four" on offense that we didn't talk about enough -- probably because they dealt with a few injuries. The Rams went 6-2 in games with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua in 2023. That offense averaged a whopping 28.5 points and 398.9 yards of total offense per game, while Stafford threw 18 touchdowns compared to three interceptions. L.A. averaged 6.8 yards per play with this "Big Four" on the field!
The Rams had a decent offseason defensively -- drafting Jared Verse and Braden Fiske with their first two picks -- brought back cornerback Darious Williams and signed Tre'Davious White and Kamren Curl. The NFC West is a tough division, but the Rams should get to double-digit victories if they remain healthy.
Minnesota Vikings: Over 7 (-110)
This win total has already moved up, as bettors are onto something. The Vikings lost a few notable names this offseason in Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter, but also added a few pass rushers in Dallas Turner, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, a new running back in Aaron Jones and, of course, J.J. McCarthy.
The Michigan product was not my top quarterback in this class, but getting to work under Kevin O'Connell while throwing to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and hopefully T.J. Hockenson is pretty fantastic. All three surpassed 900 yards receiving last year! What if McCarthy surprises in his rookie season? Minnesota won seven games with four different quarterbacks last year. Plus, the defense improved in my opinion -- although we won't know for sure until we get to September. I see the Vikings as a team who could surprise in 2024.
Chicago Bears: Under 9 (-130)
Many believe the Bears are finally on the right track. They ditched Justin Fields for Caleb Williams, added D'Andre Swift at running back and welcomed Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze at receiver. The offensive line is solid when healthy and the defense is underrated. It's not a bad landing spot for a rookie quarterback, but a win total of nine for Chicago seems pretty high. The Bears have reached double-digit wins just once in the last decade. Are we penciling in Williams as the next C.J. Stroud too quickly?
I'm not wishing disappointment on Bears fans, but we have to understand it's a possibility. While the Bears weren't the worst team in the NFL last year, quarterbacks selected No. 1 overall haven't surpassed six wins in their first season since Andrew Luck went 11-5 in 2012. Matt Eberflus was already on the hot seat, and then we'll have to see if new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron can be 2024's version of Bobby Slowik.
Chicago does not have a tough schedule based on opponents' 2023 win percentage, but what if the NFC North is more competitive than we imagined? We already discussed the Vikings, but the Bears play a legitimate contender in the Detroit Lions twice, and the Green Bay Packers have great potential, too.
Indianapolis Colts: Over 8.5 (-115)
The Colts are one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL this upcoming season. I'm not claiming the Colts' Over 8.5 wins as a best bet, but this may be a volatile team that flies past that number. If Anthony Richardson can stay on the field, of course.
Richardson played just four games before a shoulder injury shut him down for the rest of his rookie season, and in those four games played, he finished just one healthy. At times during those four contests Richardson looked like he could be a superstar, as he became just one of four players in NFL history to record three or more passing touchdowns and three or more rushing touchdowns in his first four career games. With Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Adonai Mitchell as well as offensive coordinator Shane Steichen leading the charge, the Colts offense has potential.
Defensively, the Colts ranked fifth in sacks last season with 51. Four different players recorded at least eight sacks in 2023, something no other NFL team can claim, and they are all back for 2024. Plus, the defensive front added Laiatu Latu as well.
The AFC South is certainly an intriguing division. The Texans are expected to be contenders, the Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a pushover when healthy and the Tennessee Titans are another team that could be better than expected. But maybe it's the Colts that shock the NFL world with a healthy Richardson.
