What parity?
While the adage "any given Sunday" suggests any team can beat any other team in the NFL, this season features more bad teams than usual, as nine clubs enter Week 10 with only two wins.
And that got us thinking.
Although all nine of these clubs are long-shots to make a run at a playoff spot this season, which team has the best long-term outlook?
Instead of ranking the teams by feel in a purely qualitative way, I decided to go the quantitative route and created a system I'm calling Long-Term Outlook Score (LTO). It's the sum of the following three categories.
- Blue-chip players under 30 years old: Straightforward. How many young(ish) high-caliber players are on a given roster. A player must be under 30 for the 2025 season to be included.
- Financial situation score: Ranking of these clubs from 1 to 9, with one being the worst possible score and nine being the best.
- Day 1/2 draft picks: Instead of counting all draft picks in 2025, I'm only including those ultra-valuable Day 1 and Day 2 selections, because that's where it's most likely a team lands a genuine difference-maker in the draft.
If teams had the same LTO, I used quarterback situation as the first tie-breaker and a financial situation as the second tie-breaker.
9. New Orleans Saints
- Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (3) EDGE Carl Granderson, WR Chris Olave, OC Erik McCoy
- Financial situation score: 1
- 2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (4) RD1, RD2, RD3, RD3
- Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 8
Where to begin with the Saints? It's all bad. Exceptionally bad. Remember when the Saints kept pushing money into the future at the tail-end of the Drew Brees era, and then, inexplicably, kept doing it after Brees retired? Well those accounting gymnastics are back to bite the Saints, and it'll start in 2025.
This is a team with a little over $4 million in cap space right now that's set to be -- are you ready for this? -- $61 million OVER the salary cap in 2025. The worst part? Per Jason Fitzgerald of OverTheCap.com, they only have two players who'd save the club more than $3 million if cut. Even trading star cornerback Marshon Lattimore at the deadline does little to help New Orleans' finances. He'll count as a $31.67 million dead cap, which would've been close to his normal cap number had he remained on the roster.
Next year, Derek Carr, who feels like the new quarterback purgatory representative, has a cap number of $51.4 million, and without more accounting maneuvers, the Saints can't even save $2 million if he's released before June 1.
The minuscule silver lining is New Orleans has four picks in the first three rounds and six in the first four rounds of the 2025 NFL Draft.
On the personnel side, Olave feels like he could a star receiver, but he's suffered two concussions this season alone after suffering one in each of his first two seasons with the Saints.
They've been in denial for too long. The Saints finally need to take their lumps and completely reset. Even if it takes three years.
8. Cleveland Browns
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (3) EDGE Myles Garrett, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CB Denzel Ward
Financial situation score: 3
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (4) RD1, RD2, RD3, RD3
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 10
The Browns' future hinges upon an organizational decision on Deshaun Watson. Unfortunately for Cleveland, there's no obvious path to take with the justifiably embattled quarterback that equates to savings on the books. The Browns made a catastrophic miscalculation trading for Watson and giving him exorbitant money, and they will likely have to absorb catastrophic dead cap in 2025 and 2026 to wipe the slate clean.
Of course, such a monstrous dead cap hit severely hinders a club's ability to sign outside free agents or retain homegrown talent, which is the main reason the Browns are No. 8 in these rankings. Watson's cap hit skyrockets to an absurd $72.9 million in 2025. It's the same in 2026.
It'd be one thing if Watson was this ghastly wart on the roster, and the rest of it featured an abundance of youthful talent. That's simply not the case anymore. Garrett remains a perennial NFL Defensive Player of the Year candidate but is nearing 30. Owusu-Koramoah is one of the league's best young linebackers, and Ward can still provide ridiculously good reps in man coverage. Beyond those three, and maybe I could've counted safety Juan Thornhill, Cleveland's roster needs an infusion of productive players on rookie deals who look poised to earn lucrative second contracts with the Browns.
7. Carolina Panthers
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (2) CB Jaycee Horn, OG Robert Hunt
Financial Situation Score: 6
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (3) RD1, RD2, RD3
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 11
The Panthers have won four of their last 26 games dating back to the beginning of the 2023 season. In short, the Bryce Young era has been ghastly. Then you remember the seismic trade package Carolina sent to Chicago to get to No. 1 to pick Young, and it's harder to bear.
At times, left tackle Ikem Ekwonu borders on "blue-chip," yet the former top-10 selection hasn't consistently played to the expected level that corresponds with that draft position. Horn has rebounded nicely from injuries to begin his NFL career and has All-Pro upside. Hunt has played to the massive free-agent contract he signed. Beyond those three, it's a stretch to suggest there are any young building blocks on the roster.
At quarterback, because of how badly Young played in 2023 and to begin 2024, I didn't have much hope for his NFL career. Oddly enough, after being benched for Andy Dalton, the former No. 1 overall pick has played respectable football the past two weeks. If he can build on those performances and play adequate ball in the second half of the season, the Panthers could conceivably outperform this ranking. They surprisingly have the least-amount of cap space in the NFL right now but have $43 million in 2025.
Even after back-to-back years of futility, Carolina has a long way to go to be relevant in the NFC.
6. Tennessee Titans
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (2) DT Jeffery Simmons, CB L'Jarius Sneed
Financial situation score: 7
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (2) RD1, RD2
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 11
The Titans roster feels mostly barren, especially when searching for serious, high-upside types who look like potential building blocks as general manager Ran Carthon continues his journey to assemble a respectable winner inside the AFC South. Will Levis is the ultimate wild-card -- both on the field and from a macro perspective. Can he return from injury and flash like he did as a rookie while eliminating the abysmal decisions when pressured? He has all the talent needed to be a franchise quarterback, but of course succeeding at that position asks for much more than physical skills.
If he can play steadier football, Tennessee will be onto something. But good luck finding young players -- outside of rookie nose tackle T'Vondre Sweat -- to be excited about for the long haul. Tony Pollard has been fantastic this season, yet in running back years, he's nearing the end of his prime, as this is his age 27 campaign.
Simmons is a beast on the inside of the defensive front, one of the most complete, three-down players at his position in all of football. Another player who's only 27 years old, Simmons still has plenty of effective football in front of him. Sneed hasn't met the massive expectations that came with his trade and extension in Tennessee, yet when fully healthy, I still have faith in his lockdown man-coverage capabilities.
On the draft-capital front, the Titans don't have a third-rounder, which on the surface doesn't seem catastrophic, but when you're in dire need of serious talent injections, it's not ideal. Money-wise, the Titans are in good shape in 2025. They should be able to roll over close to $17 million from 2024 and are currently set to have the 10th-most space -- over $64 million -- next year.
5. Miami Dolphins
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (5) QB Tua Tagovailoa, RB De'Von Achane, WR Jaylen Waddle, EDGE Jaelan Phillips, OC Aaron Brewer
Financial situation score: 2
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (4) RD1, RD2, RD3, RD3 (projected comp)
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 11
The Dolphins are probably the best team of the nine clubs with two wins right now, especially with a healthy starting quarterback under center. I wouldn't be surprised if they sneak back into the AFC wild-card hunt by mid December. And the nucleus of the offense with Tagovailoa, Achane and Waddle is stronger than all of the other two-win teams.
But the impending financial limitations are a roadblock for Miami. Between cap space at the moment and what they're projected for 2025, the Dolphins don't even have $10 million in cap room. And the only sizable savings they could make in 2025 would be post-June 1 cuts for Terron Armstead and/or Bradley Chubb, but then dead cap jumps forward to 2026 as well. There are a handful of other potential releases that'd save a few million here and there, like Kendall Fuller, Jason Sanders, and Raheem Mostert.
Yet if that's the route Miami chooses, the club's lack of depth will be apparent. There aren't many exciting young players on the roster outside of the aforementioned skill-position group. I'm hoping Phillips can return to 2022 form next year -- he's so supremely gifted as an edge rusher. Back-to-back season-ending leg injuries gives me some pause on him playing at that borderline elite level again in the NFL.
General manager Chris Grier has finally loaded up on draft picks after the club only made eight selections total in the 2022 and 2023 drafts.
4. New York Giants
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (6) DT Dexter Lawrence, OT Andrew Thomas, EDGE Brian Burns, WR Malik Nabers, CB Dru Phillips, LB Bobby Okereke
Financial situation score: 4
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (3) RD1, RD2, RD3
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 13
The Giants can't get out of their own way, and Daniel Jones, despite all of his toughness, is at the center of the problems for New York. Fortunately for the future of the Giants, this is almost a virtual guarantee to be his last season as the team's starter.
Defensively, the Giants have some dudes in Lawrence, who might win Defensive Player of the Year on a non-playoff team, Burns, who's been every bit as advertised around the corner, and Phillips, the chippy rookie nickel corner who I'm already considering a top-10-to-15 player at his position.
On offense, Nabers looks like a future All-Pro because of his suddenness, pure speed, route-crispness and yards-after-the-catch mastery, and when healthy, Thomas is one of the finest all-around left tackles in football. He'll only be 26 years old next season. Outside of the Jones extension after 2022, general manager Joe Schoen has done a workable job managing the cap, as the GMen are set to have close to $50 million in space next year, and they'll gain an additional $30.5 million if they get rid of Jones with a post-June 1 designation in 2025. Sitting at No. 4 in these rankings feels right for the Giants. They aren't in a tremendous rebuild position, yet aren't in cap hell, have some picks, a handful of quality young players and are primed to select a quarterback in the 2025 NFL Draft.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (4) EDGE Josh Hines-Allen, LB Devin Lloyd, RB Tank Bigsby, WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Financial situation score: 5
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (4) RD1, RD2, RD3, RD3
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 13
The Jaguars are in a weird, unenviable predicament. Trevor Lawrence's contract features an average-per-year value of $55 million, tied for the second-highest figure in football. And in isolation, he's probably played better than the statistics. But the statistics are ugly. He's 23rd in passer rating, 16th in yards per attempt and 36th out of 40 qualifiers in adjusted completion rate. Even the biggest Lawrence supports would admit he's not meeting the expectations of his hefty extension.
Does Lawrence have upside? At this point? Maybe. The glimmer of his potential helps the Jaguars' cause, but only theoretically. He'll be entering Year 5 in 2025 with a career-high rating of 95.1. Hardly $55 million type of productivity. Moving past Lawrence, the foursome of Hines-Allen, Lloyd, Bigsby and Thomas Jr. are exciting for Jacksonville's future. All are significantly athletic players with loads of position-specific skill, and three of the four play high-value spots on the field.
The extra third-round pick in 2025 will help the mini rebuild, as will their cap space being right in the middle of the NFL next season. Oh, and I wanted to give a nod to rookie cornerback Jarrian Jones -- he's a potential building block in the secondary.
2. New England Patriots
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (1) EDGE Keion White
Financial situation score: 9
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (4) RD1, RD2, RD3, RD3
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 14
I feel compelled to start with New England's money, then I'll get to the quarterback. The Patriots have the third-most cap space in football right now -- at around $37 million -- and the most space in 2025 by a wide margin at $131 million. If they want, the Patriots can spend in free agency and prepare to pay any up-and-coming youngsters. While there doesn't appear to be many of those players on New England's roster right now, Drake Maye has flashed in his limited audition to date as the Patriots starter.
In his four appearances entering Week 11 -- counting the game he was injured -- I've given him letter grades of "C-" twice, "A-" and "B+" in my weekly young quarterback grades piece. The mobility, arm talent and ball placement have all been encouraging and at times sensational. Yes, there have been classic rookie mishaps. But Maye's upside has been very apparent to begin his NFL career, and if he "hits," it'd mean more to the Patriots than anything else in the organization.
There is a clear lack of big-time talent on the roster, which certainly matters. It makes the rebuild to field a true contender much more challenging. But with ample money and the requisite draft capital in place, the Patriots find themselves in a cozy position after years of struggle immediately following the unprecedentedly successful Tom Brady era.
1. Las Vegas Raiders
Blue-chip players under 30 years old: (5) EDGE Maxx Crosby, DT Christian Wilkins, OT Kolton Miller, OG Dylan Parham, TE Brock Bowers
Financial situation score: 8
2025 Day 1/2 draft picks: (4) RD1, RD2, RD3, RD3
Total Long-Term Outlook Score: 17
This season for the Raiders has been bleak, but the future has upside for Las Vegas, because this organization has the necessary components to construct a contending team after 2024. They aren't owners of a bloated contract for a mediocre quarterback. They aren't overflowing with pricey veterans with large cap numbers in the future and significant dead cap hits. They haven't traded away early draft capital. And, for a two-win team, the Raiders have a respectable core, highlighted by Crosby, who's a legitimate superstar and will only be 28 next season.
Miller is probably the most underrated left tackle in football with supreme physical gifts. Wilkins is one of the NFL's best three-down defensive tackles when healthy. Parham has developed nicely at guard, and Bowers could contend for most catches in the league as a rookie and doesn't turn 22 until September.
Financially, Las Vegas currently has close to $35 million in space to potentially carryover to 2025 and are set to have the third-most cap space in football -- before carryover is included -- at more than $108 million. It's been ugly the past few years for the Raiders, and there's no guarantee they'll transform. But the pieces are there for said transformation to occur, starting as soon as next season.
