NFC win totals: Expert breaks down expectations for next NFL season ahead of free agency
CBS Sports NFL expert Will Brinson dishes his over/under leans and picks for every NFC win total before free agency begins
Just 10 years ago, you couldn't find NFL win totals anywhere until late in the summer, much closer to the start of the regular season. We now get them in February! We're going to check in on all the offerings DraftKings has in the market, first with the NFC and then later with the AFC.
These numbers will change dramatically thanks to three factors -- free agency, the draft and the actual release of the 2026 NFL schedule.
It's extremely early to be betting on these totals if you don't have supreme confidence in a particular number, especially if you're betting on Overs. Injuries are going to happen in the offseason, so be cautious with that knowledge as well. We want to be early on a team, but not too early if the number is too high.
We'll be checking back in on these picks after the schedule releases, as well as before the start of the season, but the goal is to identify some early looks that might result in some good closing line value by identifying potential movers in free agency.
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Arizona Cardinals
Over/Under 4.5 wins (O -110, U -110)
A tricky total because of the wholesale changes on the coaching staff -- Mike LaFleur takes over for Jonathan Gannon -- and the extreme uncertainty at the quarterback position. It was reported over the weekend Kyler Murray, the former No. 1 overall pick, is "likely" to be released by the Cardinals. That's going to mean at least $50 million in dead cap space for Arizona, which will hinder the team's ability to spend, not to mention putting the offense in a serious state of flux. Jacoby Brissett is still under contract and could certainly be a bridge option for one more year as the team looks to find the next possible franchise quarterback.
Despite a last-place schedule, the Cards' opponents are pretty brutal. There are six division games against teams with 10.5 win totals this year and Arizona also draws the AFC West and NFC East this season. Arizona's reward for finishing in last place includes the Jets at home, which is good, but the Cards have to play the Lions and Saints, both of whom project to improve in 2026.
The coaching upgrade for the offense plus the super low number -- winning five games happens randomly in the NFL all the time and isn't even an actual accomplishment -- gives me some intrigue, but the schedule looks brutal and there's a lot of uncertainty at quarterback still.
Verdict: Slight lean to the Over for value, but pass for now
Atlanta Falcons
Over/Under 7.5 (O +110, U -130)
Another team with a lot of changes. The Falcons brought in Kevin Stefanski to replace Raheem Morris. I'm optimistic about Stefanski and his offense with the weapons in place for Atlanta, but the quarterback situation is also a concern here. Michael Penix, Jr. tore his ACL in November and the new regime did not commit to him as the starter when asked about it during the combine. Kirk Cousins will be released, which means there's plenty up in the air here.
Atlanta draws the NFC North and AFC North outside of division games in addition to playing the 49ers, Chiefs and Commanders for their third place games. Those are some tough matchups outside of maybe the Browns and a brutal third-line draw with San Francisco and Kansas City.
The division is sneakily wide open and could result in plenty of wins if Stefanski upgrades the offense, but I wouldn't be surprised if the defense took a step back without Morris there and the quarterback situation is extremely complicated in Atlanta at the moment. I'm not 100% sure Atlanta should have the second-highest win total of anyone in the NFC South.
Verdict: Lean Under but pass for now
Carolina Panthers
Over/Under 6.5 (O -125, U +105)
The Panthers shocked everyone with their 2025 season, one that looked kind of lost then suddenly culminated in a division title, but the books understandably project a step back of sorts. Like Atlanta, the Panthers have a tough out-of-division schedule while also picking up matchups against the Seahawks, Broncos and Eagles, none of whom seem likely to be bad in 2026.
Bryce Young will have a lot of cash on the line in 2026, because a strong season would probably result in a big contract extension. They have to figure out what the running game will look like, but it wouldn't be crazy for them to spend big at the position on either Kenneth Walker or Travis Etienne.
I don't think Carolina collapses, but if the Panthers got a little unlucky and drifted back to six or seven wins I wouldn't be shocked at all. Even with their miserable point differential, they still profiled as a 6.5-win team.
Verdict: Lean Under, strong consideration but will wait
Chicago Bears
Over/Under 9.5 (O +100, U -125)
The Bears have had outsized preseason expectations over the last five years or so, which makes it a little surprising this total isn't higher after their 11-win season. The underlying metrics show they were probably closer to a nine-win team, but you can also make the case year two of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams could be set up for overall growth.
Now, the wins might not match it, because the Bears pulled a lot of rabbits out of their proverbial hat, but I've got big expectations for Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland as pass catchers next year.
Drawing the AFC East and NFC South is a pretty fantastic divisional pull, with the Bears getting the Seahawks, Jaguars and Eagles as first-place matchups.
There's no need to get over our skis on a March Over, but I really like the even-money price here on Johnson to get more out of this roster after an outstanding first season with him more comfortable as a head coach and everyone more comfortable in the offense.
Verdict: Bet the Over
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Dallas Cowboys
Over/Under 8.5 (O -130, U +110)
Imagine how good the Cowboys 2025 season could have been with an immense defensive talent like Micah Parsons! Well, there is a lot of buzz about Dallas acquiring a similar player with Maxx Crosby trade rumors swirling around Jerry Jones' franchise. The Cowboys are going to tag George Pickens and locked up Javonte Williams with an extension -- there's a strong chance, barring major injury, the offense is just as good as it was last season in year two of Brian Schottenheimer. If the defense added Crosby, it would be extremely intriguing.
Schedule-wise, the Cowboys draw the AFC South and NFC West this year, along with second-place matchups against the Ravens, Buccaneers and Packers. That's a pretty tough draw and if coaching changes for the Giants, Eagles and Commanders result in upgrades, the Cowboys might have a bit of a gauntlet on their hands.
Still, if Jerry is willing to go for broke and trade for a big-time defensive player, this number would tick up pretty quickly in my opinion.
Verdict: Lean Over, would jump on it if Crosby is dealt to Dallas
Detroit Lions
Over/Under 10.5 (O -125, U +105)
The Lions stumbled to a non-playoff season last year, but clearly the expectations are high for them heading into 2026. Drew Petzing is an interesting add as offensive coordinator -- he was probably underrated for what he did in Arizona the last couple of years. There's obviously plenty of talent on offense here at the skill positions, but it's fair to wonder about whether attrition on the offensive line could keep catching up with them.
Detroit's schedule is pretty choice though: they pull the AFC East and NFC South plus get three last-place games against the Giants, Cardinals and Titans. In terms of a team that was one of the biggest Super Bowl favorites before 2025, that's a pretty cushy landing spot.
Pick: Lean strongly to the Over, but it's a big number in March
Green Bay Packers
Over/Under (O -105, U +105)
The Packers will get Micah Parsons back this year, but the late-season nature of his injury -- which caused the defense to fall off a cliff in 2025 -- definitely should raise some questions about this defense heading into the start of the year, especially when coupled with the departure of defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley for Miami. Jonathan Gannon was a nice pickup for the coaching staff, but it wouldn't be surprising if this defense came out a little bumpy to start the year.
On offense, Jordan Love is always streaky and generally better towards the back end of the season. Getting the Texans, Cowboys and Rams as second-place matchups is brutal, but the NFC South and AFC East are about as good as it gets for cross-divisional games and the primary thing keeping me off this Under.
Verdict: Lean Under, but scheduling keeps us away for now
Los Angeles Rams
Over/Under 10.5 (O -145, U +120)
The best team in football that got a bad scheduling draw returns having already traded for a star in Trent McDuffie to shore up their secondary. F Them Picks, indeed. Matthew Stafford will look to back up his MVP campaign in a year with high expectations and I don't see a reason the Rams can't meet them on offense. McDuffie dramatically improves the defense as well. This should be a top-tier NFL team again.
The division, outside of a rebuilding Arizona team, remains brutal. Getting the AFC West and NFC East along with the Bills, Packers and Buccaneers makes for a brutal schedule. It's why the Rams are juiced at an already big number, but it's not one we can eat up this early in the offseason with an old quarterback under center.
Verdict: Eying the Over, but would want to wait until later or take an 11.5 at plus money
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Minnesota Vikings
Over/Under 8.5 (O +110, U -140)
The quarterback position for the Vikings is fascinating. It seems as if everyone believes Kyler Murray is a done deal here, but let's see how things play out in free agency first before we pencil Kyler into Kevin O'Connell's system. Is he even a great fit? Or is it just about a another cheap reclamation project to paper over the J.J. McCarthy situation?
There's a some consistency here, but that's also "for now" -- the Vikings released Jonathan Allen and could be trading Jonathan Greenard. That would really put a hamper on the defensive side of the ball, even with Brian Flores able to cover up some spots with his aggressive blitzing.
The schedule, with the NFC South and AFC East and Colts, Commanders and 49ers as third-place games on tap, is good. If Murray works, this Over looks decent, but for now let's hold off and see what other moves Minnesota is forced to make on defense. I'd almost rather them land Kyler and get better money on the Under.
Verdict: Wait to see if Kyler pushes the Over up and fade the Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Over/Under 7.5 (O -110, U -110)
The late-season darlings of the NFL, the Saints proved quite frisky down the stretch and as a result have been tagged with a pretty surprising number here. This is the second-highest total in the division, for a team that finished 6-11 with some less-than-meaningful wins to close out the year.
The schedule is likely why: last-place games against the Cardinals, Giants and Raiders are absolutely choice. The NFC North is a tough division to play, but the AFC North could offer some decent winning opportunities depending on how those teams upgrade this offseason.
Kellen Moore looked more than competent in his first year at the helm and Tyler Shough was a fun, albeit older, rookie quarterback. Losing Cameron Jordan, which seems likely at this point, is a tough blow to the defense. I don't like rolling over late-season performance from one year to another, so I'm a little more cautious here than Vegas, although anything lower than 7.5 would probably be a smash spot given the matchups on this schedule.
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic, but the number is too high
New York Giants
Over/Under 7.5 (O +110, U -130)
The Giants landed the offseason prize in the coaching ranks, picking up John Harbaugh after Baltimore shuttered the longtime coach. Harbaugh took over Baltimore and immediately improved them as a team, going 11-5 and making the conference championship game a year after being 5-11 in Brian Billick's final year.
I'm not suggesting the Giants will be a dominant team this season, but I absolutely buy Harbaugh turning things around quickly and believe the Giants will win a couple more games they otherwise would have lost under less diligent stewardship.
The Lions are a brutal last-place draw, but the Giants and Saints are pretty good matchups. The NFC West is tough, but the AFC South kind of cancels things out, even if those teams are largely improved. I'm a believer in Jaxson Dart, think we get a healthy season out of Malik Nabers and am willing to believe in Harbaugh as a franchise fixer.
Verdict: Bet the Over at plus money
Philadelphia Eagles
Over/Under 10.5 (+105, U -125)
We are in the "upswing" cycle for the Eagles, with them winning a Super Bowl, losing their coordinators due to success, having a "down" year because Nick Sirianni replaced them in house before Jeffrey Lurie and Howie Roseman dictated new replacements. Sean Mannion has no play-calling experience, but is widely regarded as an up-and-coming candidate in league circles.
What the Eagles do with A.J. Brown will get a ton of attention, but I'm not entirely sure it matters that much for what this offense wants to be. They can trade Brown, let DeVonta Smith emerge as an alpha receiver, get a bounce-back season from Saquon Barkley and be quite dominant. The biggest concern should really be the retirement of Jeff Stoutland, the longtime offensive line coach in Philly. That has my antenna way up in terms of the run game.
Philly gets the Bears, Panthers and Steelers as first-place games, which is a real win, along with the NFC West and AFC South. I definitely lean Under, but the schedule and Vic Fangio returning keeps me from pulling the trigger.
Verdict: Lean Under but don't love the price
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Seattle Seahawks
Over/Under 10.5 (O -140, U +115)
Backing up a Super Bowl is never easy, but the Seahawks are certainly built to be an upper-echelon team for the next few years thanks to Mike McDaniel's defense. I don't expect any sort of drop off on that side of the ball. But offensively, losing Klint Kubiak, and potentially Kenneth Walker and Rashid Shaheed, is a lot. We don't know much about Brian Fleury and keeping the offense the "same" sounds nice and all, but if the Seahawks took a dip back on that front I wouldn't be shocked.
The Panthers, Patriots and Bears are decent-ish first-place games and the NFC East offers some winning opportunities, even if the AFC West is a tough run (the Raiders excepted). Seattle's offense can be middling and they can win plenty of games, so it's tough to completely fade the champs here, especially since 11-6 would be a "fine" season that would still hit the Over.
Verdict: Offensive concerns cause a lean to the Under, but can't pull trigger yet
San Francisco 49ers
Over/Under 10.5 (O +125, U -150)
Injuries derailed the Niners last season, particularly on defense, but Kyle Shanahan still managed to keep this team afloat. They just got overwhelmed in the postseason by a juggernaut Seattle team that thumped them. The biggest red flag for Shanahan this offseason isn't getting everyone back who wasn't healthy, though, it's the "impasse" the team is at with Trent Williams.
The All-Galaxy left tackle is arguably the MVP of this Niners team and if he's not in the fold for 2026, I would have a hard time backing this team.
Getting the Falcons, Dolphins and Vikings as third-place games is a pretty nice pull and there are other good winning opportinities here with the Raiders, Cardinals twice and the NFC East. But you simply cannot make a decision on the Niners without knowing about Williams and the price it costs to speculate on the Under at the moment.
Verdict: Lean Under but pass at this price
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Over/Under 8.5 (O -140, U +115)
The Bucs' streak of winning the NFC South came to a shocking close thanks to things out of their control, with Week 18 providing plenty of drama on the division-title front. Tampa Bay is once again the favorite in the division. And that makes sense.
But it might once again be a low number that wins this division, because the Bucs have a tough road to hoe. Second-place matchups against the Chargers, Cowboys and Rams are brutal and having to play the NFC North and AFC North doesn't offer a ton of reprieve, per se.
We don't know what's going to happen with this receiving corps outside of Emeka Egbuka -- Mike Evans might be gone or might be back for one more run and there are trade rumors surrounding Chris Godwin at the moment. The Bucs are working in a new offensive coordinator, AGAIN, and while I think the floor/ceiling is probably the same for Baker Mayfield and Co., the price for this Over is a little expensive, even if they should be around a nine-win team once again.
Verdict: Lean Over but can't back it at this price
Washington Commanders
Over/Under 7.5 (O -110, U -110)
Jayden Daniels's sophomore season was a disaster for Washington and it resulted in Dan Quinn rejiggering the entire coaching staff and probably coming into 2026 on a bit of a hot seat after a magical first year in 2024.
The Commanders went all in on trading for veterans and ended up with an aged roster around Daniels. The offense has big names but kind of looks like a 2021 Fantasy football team that just missed the playoffs.
If David Blough is a star offensive coordinator and Daniels is healthy, this team can bounce back to mid-range playoff heights and contend for the division, but those are two big ifs! The Vikings, Bengals and Falcons are decent placement matchups, the NFC West is brutal and the AFC South has some win potential.
It would be tough for even the most optimistic Commanderrs fan to blindly back the Over until we get closer to the season and know how everyone looks and feels heading into the year.
Verdict: Lean over but just barely and would absolutely wait
