2026 Fantasy Baseball ADP Shakeup: Draft risers, injury fallers

If you haven't drafted yet, you're very much in the majority. While plenty of people have already drafted multiple Fantasy Baseball teams, those are the outliers. We've still got more than three weeks to go until Opening Day, and the overwhelming majority of drafts are going to take place in those three weeks.

Heck, that's even understating it. Last year on the CBS Fantasy platform, 65% of all drafts occurred in the final 10 days before Opening Day. By the same point in the schedule as today, only around 5% of all drafts had taken place. You are very much not alone if you haven't drafted yet.

But plenty of folks have! I've done around 10 so far, including a handful of mock drafts, and I'll have another 10 to go, including The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, a league with hundreds of Fantasy Baseball analysts and obsessives that kicked off Monday afternoon. It's an overall competition where you go up against your 14 league mates while also competing for an overall prize, and the slow draft began Monday. I'm already through three rounds, where I started with Ronald Acuña, Nick Kurtz, and Ketel Marte, which is a heck of an offensive core to build around.

It might be a little light on steals, though. If you read yesterday's newsletter, you'll know that isn't a big concern for me, at least. But I might have locked in 110 homers, a good batting average, and excellent run production numbers with my first three picks. If I get 40 steals from that trio, I'll be in good shape; if I get 40 steals just from Acuña, I'll be in great shape.

Of course, I got lucky in that one, with Kurtz falling nearly 10 picks from his 17.97 Average Draft Position in February to my spot at 25th overall. I've been out on Kurtz at a mid-first-round price, but if he's going to fall to me 10 spots into the second round in a 15-team league, I'll be all over that.

ADP is just a guide, let's remember! It'll tell you where a player tends to be taken, but they might go way earlier than that in some leagues and later in others; it's an average, in other words. It tells you what range a player should go in, but any individual drafter can buck those trends on their own; alternatively, half your league can decide to go away from Nick Kurtz and lead to him dropping right into your lap, very much unexpectedly.

In the rest of today's newsletter, we're looking at the latest ADP trends from February. The nice thing about the NFBC format is, across their various draft types, they allow the ability to filter by time, which makes it easy to compare prices over time. Today, we're taking a look at players who moved the most from January to February drafts, focusing on different ranges of the draft -- and note, we're not just looking at the biggest numerical drops, but comparing those drops to their price, so that a four-spot drop in the top-20 matters a whole lot more than a four-spot drop in the 10th round.

Here are the latest trends in ADP:

Biggest ADP risers from inside the top 100

Significant moves up in the top 100 rarely happen during this part of the year. For obvious reasons: Players who are already in the top 100 have a lot of reasons to like them already, and you generally aren't going to find compelling reasons to move players up when they're already this high.

Eury Perez, SP, Marlins – From 99.25 to 92.33 -- It's a relatively small jump here, and the only pitcher he jumped ahead of was Nick Pivetta. Which is fine, Perez should be going ahead of Pivetta, so that feels more like a price correction than anything.
Austin Riley, 3B, Braves – From 70.61 to 65.73 -- I have my concerns about Riley given his worsening strikeout and walk rates last season, but given the shallowness of third base, I'm not going to begrudge anyone playing the positional scarcity game.
Maikel Garcia, 3B, Royals – From 72.88 to 68.5 -- Same with Riley, I think we're just seeing people start to prioritize the very weak third base position.
Brice Turang, 2B, Brewers – From 56.58 to 52.75 -- I wonder if Turang's two-homer game during Spring Training played any part in this. It shouldn't, but drafters are human, after all. The biggest question with Turang was how real his 2025 power breakout was, so seeing him hit for power this spring could make you more confident in it, but I think that would be a stretch. As is, he's been a top-three second baseman two years in a row and is probably fine to draft around 50th overall even if you worry he's more like a 10-homer guy than an 18-20 one.
Yordan Alvarez, DH, Astros – From 39.22 to 35.47: Well, if you follow this newsletter, you should know I think Alvarez has been undervalued all along. He's one of the four or five best hitters in baseball, he's currently healthy, and it sounds like he's even going to get some reps in the outfield. Even if Alvarez never gains OF eligibility, he's a great pick around the 3-4 turn in a 12-team league, because there are some pretty bonkers high-end outcomes here -- we're talking, .300 average, 45-plus homers kinda stuff.

Biggest ADP fallers from inside the top 100

For the most part, we're talking about injury fallers. And, in a couple of instances, these guys still aren't falling enough.

Corbin Carroll, OF, Diamondbacks – from 7.92 to 12.36 -- It's the hand injury. Carroll may still be available for Opening Day, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable taking him around 20th, given the potential for a slow start if he misses all or most of Spring Training. Carroll is great, but taking on added risk is tougher to justify when there are so many other great players being drafted around him.
Francisco Lindor, SS, Mets – From 16.67 to 22.83 -- Same as Carroll, and he's on basically an identical timetable. Both will probably just be themselves when they get on the field, but it's not quite certain enough that I can justify passing on Jazz Chisholm, Kyle Schwarber, or Tre Turner for them.
Josh Hader, RP, Astros – From 70.84 to 96.34 -- He's dealing with that biceps injury that has kept him off the mound so far this spring. It's not clear how concerning this injury is in a vacuum, but coming off the shoulder injury that ended his 2025 season prematurely, it's hard not to be scared. I'm not taking Hader inside of the top 100 right now, and I'm moving Bryan Abreu into the top 225 of the rankings until we get a concrete timeline for Hader. Even a best-case scenario for Hader might see Abreu open the season as the closer, and he might be a top-five closer if Hader is out indefinitely.
Ben Rice, C, Yankees – From 46.62 to 51.42 -- It happens to one player every year. There's one guy everyone wants, and you end up with an arms race where everyone ends up seeing how early they can push him. Rice is excellent, and a top-50 pick is justifiable, but I'm glad cooler heads are prevailing here. I think the signing of Paul Goldschmidt probably introduced enough doubt about Rice's everyday role to push him down a half-round, which is reasonable.
Blake Snell, SP, Dodgers – From 86.28 to 128.44 -- It's not clear if Snell is actually currently injured, but the chances of him being ready for Opening Day are "probably zero", as manager Dave Roberts acknowledged over the weekend. Snell dealt with fatigue and discomfort over the offseason after the Dodgers' deep postseason run, and it sounds like we may not even see him on the mound until after Spring Training ends. That probably means we're looking at a May return for Snell, which puts him on a similar timetable as the likes of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Justin Steele. They're all coming back from elbow surgeries, so they are seemingly less certain than Snell to be impactful pitchers when healthy, but it's not like Snell is a sure thing either. I'd push him even farther than this in upcoming drafts, to be honest.

Biggest ADP Risers from 100-150

I limited the other tiers to the five biggest changes, but there were more interesting, noteworthy names to discuss here, so I didn't want to limit myself.

Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Reds – From 115.7 to 95.97 -- Suarez's signing with the Reds has pushed his price up ... but not enough! I have him as a borderline top-75 pick, and I know Scott White has him even higher. At his age and given his contact issues, there's some bottom-out potential here with Suarez, but his new(/old) home park in Cincy should help paper over some flaws as he enters his late-30s.
Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies – From 148.57 to 134.75 -- The truth is, there's no reason for Wheeler to be moving up. We have seen nothing so far from him to justify moving his price one way or another. He's thrown a couple of bullpen sessions, but until we see Wheeler pitching in competitive games with data to see where he's at in his recovery from Thoracic Outlet syndrome, I just don't see any reason to move Wheeler up. I'm pulling for him, but I'm not comfortable making the move until we're outside of the top 150 in most drafts. We're looking at Wheeler likely missing at least the first few weeks of the season, with no way of knowing whether he'll be able to pitch competently at that.
Chase Burns, SP, Reds – From 128.73 to 115.23 -- I still think that the competition for the No. 5 SP role in Cincinnati is Burns' to lose, but all indications out of camp are that the position isn't going to be handed to him either. I really believe in Burns' skills and think he will win the job, but there's at least some risk that his early struggles with command (five walks in 4.1 innings through two starts) could cost him a role. Again, I don't think it's particularly likely, but when the chances are north of 0%, I'm not sure it makes sense to push his price up.
Emmett Sheehan, SP, Dodgers – From 147.68 to 136.94 -- I entered camp with vague concerns about Sheehan's role, and I do think if you're drafting him, you should prepare yourself for the possibility that he's not going to be in the rotation all season long. The Dodgers are going to limit his innings after he threw just 93 in his return from elbow surgery in 2025, and between that and their six-man rotation, I think he probably maxes out around 150 innings this season. They should be very good innings, but I think if you're drafting Sheehan much higher than his ADP, you might be setting yourself up for some in-season frustration.
Framber Valdez, SP, Tigers – From 100.08 to 90.2 -- Valdez signed with the Tigers in early February. His price is simply normalizing to where it always should have been; that's all.
Nolan McLean, SP, Mets – From 104.98 to 99.77 -- McLean is kind of the pitcher version of Rice, except I don't think his price is likely to go down from here. He struck out six in his first four innings this spring, and his stuff arguably looked even better than it did as a rookie. And now he's about to go off to the World Baseball Classic, where he might end up pitching in some extremely high-profile spots for Team USA. He might end up a top-75 pick before it's all done, and while I think that's probably too aggressive for a guy who did struggle with his command at times in the minors, I'll admit I'm starting to get some real FOMO about missing out on McLean.
Daniel Palencia, RP, Cubs – From 142.33 to 133.88 -- The Cubs added some bullpen depth this offseason, but no obvious competition for Palencia as the closer. And then to put any lingering doubts to rest, Cubs manager Craig Counsell told reporters on Feb. 11 that Palencia would be the closer if the season ended today. That could change with a bad spring -- and Palencia has had control struggles before 2025 -- but right now, it looks like the job is his. He's solidly in the No. 2 RP discussion.
Luis Robert, OF, Mets – From 120.0 to 111.82 -- Robert was traded to the Mets back in late January, so while that explains some of this movement, he's also being held out of Spring Training games, so there's not much concrete beyond that to go on. Yeah, it's a better lineup, but Robert was so bad over the past two seasons that I don't know if a change of scenery is enough to get him back on track. Maybe it will be, but I'd want to see some evidence that the Mets have fixed something with Robert before I get on board. Which probably just means I won't be drafting Robert this season. That's fine.

Biggest ADP Fallers from 100-150

We're talking either injury fallers or guys who are just slipping a few spots here, so there's nothing much to react to from this tier right now.

Jordan Westburg, 3B, Orioles – From 118.82 to 183.96 -- Sort by just drafts since we learned Westburg is dealing with a partially torn UCL in his right elbow, and he's closer to 300th in ADP. Even that might be too optimistic for a guy who might get to April and decide he does need surgery and will miss the rest of the season. Right now, he's taking the rest-and-rehab approach, but there's a decent chance we just don't see Westburg on the field at all this season, sadly.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, Orioles – From 133.34 to 170.52 -- Holliday's drop looks a lot more dramatic than Lindor or Carroll, but that's just a product of where they were already being drafted. Players like Lindor and Carroll are just a lot harder to replace than Holliday, so their price is going to stay a lot more static. Holliday should open the season on the IL, but it looks like that's more about making sure he has enough reps to get ready for the season. If you liked him before the injury, take the discount and don't forget to say "thank you."
Carlos Estevez, RP, Royals – From 101.29 to 105.06 -- He should probably be dropping further than this. Estevez's velocity is down about 3 mph on his four-seamer and even more on his slider, and it's not like he had a huge margin for error to begin with -- his mid-2.00s ERA last season was backed up by peripherals closer to 4.00, after all. Even if he gets his velocity back, Estevez is probably the least safe among the "safe" closer tier. I'd rather have Palencia, and I don't even like Palencia that much.
Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox – From 104.22 to 107.5 -- This is small enough that I'm willing to chalk it up to noise. Story didn't move below any shortstops during this time, so ultimately, whether you take him here will come down to whether you need a shortstop at this point in the draft. I'm unlikely to be the one who clicks his name, but I don't mind the price.
Alejandro Kirk, C, Blue Jays – From 149.46 to 152.73 -- Another pretty small drop, and maybe it's just a bit of regression to the mean, as Kirk is a little more expensive on the NFBC platform than in other spots. I'd still rather have Francisco Alvarez, Gabriel Moreno, Kyle Teel, Samuel Basallo, or Carter Jensen instead of Kirk, who is much more of a floor play. He'll hit for a decent average and a bit of power, but you're taking a huge hit in runs even before accounting for the fact that the names I mentioned all have significantly higher ceilings than Kirk.

Biggest ADP Risers from 150-250

Here's where we'll see some bigger movement, though a few of these guys are still building their cases.

Kazuma Okamoto, 3B, Blue Jays – From 234.4 to 214.18 -- It's been kind of curious to see Okamoto going off the board later than Munetaka Murakami, given how many Fantasy analysts seem to be convinced Murakami is going to bust. Their prices are starting to converge, and if Okamoto has a strong spring, I'd bet he gets above Murakami eventually.
Mackenzie Gore, SP, Rangers – From 197.42 to 180.71 -- I've been hoping to see a change of scenery for Gore for a while, and he got that with the trade to the Rangers. He's going off the board a bit higher at NFBC than other sites, but seeing as I have him ranked even higher, I'm obviously fine with it.
Shane McClanahan, SP, Rays – From 246.24 to 226.5 -- If McClanahan is rising based entirely off beat writer reports about his bullpen sessions, I fear what's going to happen when we actually see him on the mound. He's making his spring debut Tuesday, and if he looks good, he's going to be inside the top 200 in ADP almost immediately. I'll be out.
Ryan Walker, RP, Giants – From 189.69 to 177.73 -- The Giants didn't bring in any real competition for the closer's role, so I think we're just operating under the assumption Walker will be the guy. He lost the job early last season and wasn't great in general, though his underlying metrics were a little more solid (3.30 FIP, 3.83 xERA), and he has a career 2.98 ERA in three seasons. I think Walker is probably a bit undervalued, even.
Matt McLain, 2B, Reds – From 210.35 to 198.32 -- The rules about not overreacting to spring results matter a lot less at this kind of price level. I don't necessarily think it's a great process that McLain is moving up seemingly entirely because of a hot start to the spring, but as long as we're still talking about picks outside of the top 180 or so, it's probably fine. He still has a 20-20 ceiling -- and a two-homer game Monday is only going to push that price up.

Biggest ADP Fallers from 150-250

This is where we start to see people losing hope.

Shane Bieber, SP, Blue Jays – From 195.61 to 257.99 -- Bieber is still dealing with the effects of the forearm fatigue he dealt with last postseason, and there's no timetable for his return to the mound. It's almost certain he won't be ready for the start of the season, and given that he couldn't even make it through 60 innings in his first season after Tommy John surgery makes me doubt his ability to get through the subsequent season without serious issue.
Jasson Dominguez, OF, Yankees – From 226.64 to 288.8 -- It feels all but certain that Dominguez will begin the year in Triple-A, and I can't necessarily blame the Yankees for that. He didn't have a terrible rookie season, but he definitely didn't have a great one, and there just isn't an obvious spot for him. Right now. An injury to anyone of Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger (already dealing with a balky back, though it's a minor issue for now), Aaron Judge, or Giancarlo Stanton would clear that up really quickly, and Dominguez is still a very talented young player, so don't forget about him entirely.
Abner Uribe, RP, Brewers – From 159.88 to 179.86 -- The Brewers are staying mum for now on their closer situation, but it's worth pointing out that Megill never lost his job -- he just got hurt last summer. It feels like a coin flip to me, and both pitchers' prices are falling right now. But Uribe's is falling a bit faster.
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros – From 199.28 to 216.4 -- We just don't know where he's going to play. The Astros never cleared up their infield log jam, and while Yordan Alvarez playing the occasional outfield would help, it might not be enough for Paredes to be an everyday player. Of course, it might just take an injury to one of Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, or Christian Walker for Paredes to get the chance -- and even a slow start from Walker might be enough. I'm still trying to draft Paredes for a bench spot if I can.
Tatsuya Imai, SP, Astros – From 170.03 to 177.54 -- It's not a big fall, all things considered, but it's still curious. Imai signed for significantly less than expected this offseason, but it's not like he was the only free agent who had to settle for less than we thought. There are some questions about how he'll handle right-handed bats in the majors (everything Imai throws moves to the glove side), but he's also a pretty unique pitcher in a lot of ways, and "unique" can work well when a player is first joining the majors. I'm expecting a very good first half from Imai, at least, and I'll take any discount I can get.