This is our second review of the CBS Sports Average Draft Position data for PPR, and there are several things I'm looking forward to checking out. For context, the ADP for this story is August 6, and we'll be doing this every week leading up to Week 1.
We've had several injuries that could impact the ADP, including Christian McCaffrey (calf), Justin Herbert (foot), Puka Nacua (knee) and DeAndre Hopkins (knee). Along with that, we got news that Jonathon Brooks (knee) could be out for the start of the season.
Let's see how that news changed the ADP for guys like Elijah Mitchell, Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley, Chuba Hubbard and the Chargers receivers, as well as other things going on with training camp in full swing. Fantasy drafts are starting to take place in most leagues, and the ADP is looking more realistic all the time.
Round 1 ADP
1. Christian McCaffrey
2. CeeDee Lamb
3. Breece Hall
5. Tyreek Hill
10. Jonathan Taylor
11. Jahmyr Gibbs
12. A.J. Brown
The McCaffrey news happened as I'm writing this story, and it's doubtful his ADP will change any time soon. Hopefully, he's OK for Week 1, but we could see McCaffrey slip from the top spot. As of now, he'll remain the No. 1 overall pick for me.
By comparison to last week, the top 12 players are the same, just in a different order. Hall moved ahead of Robinson, Chase moved ahead of Jefferson and Gibbs moved ahead of Brown.
This is the way I have it ranked also for Hall vs. Robinson and Chase vs. Jefferson. I would rather have Brown than Gibbs, and Brown is my No. 9 overall player.
I moved Nacua out of the first round with his knee injury, and he's now my No. 15 overall player, which is closer to his ADP at No. 14 overall. And I have Garrett Wilson ranked No. 10 overall, but his ADP is No. 15 overall. I would be thrilled to draft Wilson in Round 2.
Quarterbacks
The top three quarterbacks of Jalen Hurts (No. 21 overall), Patrick Mahomes (No. 22) and Josh Allen (No. 24) all have an ADP in Round 2 now. While those are my top three quarterbacks -- my order is Allen, Hurts and Mahomes -- I would not draft any of them in the second round.
Lamar Jackson, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson and Joe Burrow remain the next four quarterbacks off the board just like last week, but after those guys we have some changes. Jordan Love is now the No. 8 quarterback, Dak Prescott is No. 9 and Kyler Murray is No. 10.
I would draft Murray first of that group, and I moved Jayden Daniels up to No. 9, followed by Love and then Prescott. I would actually avoid drafting Love (ADP of 67.4) and Prescott (68.7) at their current cost, and I would just prefer to wait for Murray (83.7) or Daniels (101.7).
If you like waiting for a quarterback on Draft Day, some of the best bargains are Tua Tagovailoa (104.5), Jared Goff (107.3), Caleb Williams (109.6) and Trevor Lawrence (121.1). Herbert's ADP is on the decline (118.4) because of his injury, and I would rather draft guys like Kirk Cousins (131.7), Matthew Stafford (137.6), Deshaun Watson (143.3), Aaron Rodgers (148.1) and Will Levis (170.1) instead of Herbert as of now.
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Running backs
With McCaffrey sidelined, we'll see what the 49ers do with the backup running backs. Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) and Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) are both hurt, which could help elevate Jordan Mason. And San Francisco just signed Matt Breida back to the roster.
Mitchell (ADP of 145.2) is the only other 49ers running back being drafted right now on CBS, but that will change. Mason is easily worth a late-round flier while McCaffrey and Mitchell are hurt, but hopefully, McCaffrey isn't going to miss any time in the regular season.
Brooks' ADP has dropped to 81.4, and he's the No. 29 running back off the board now. We'll see how long he's out in the regular season, but he's still worth drafting as a flex. When healthy, he could still be a top-20 running back in all leagues.
Hubbard's ADP will rise significantly from 141.3 now that he's the likely starter in Carolina to start the season, and he's worth drafting as early as Round 9. He should be a flex as long as Brooks is out.
Some other running backs I like with late-round picks include Jerome Ford (113.2), Blake Corum (116.4), Zach Charbonnet (123.7), Rico Dowdle (129.6), Ty Chandler (134.6), Tyler Allgeier (136.3), Antonio Gibson (137.1), MarShawn Lloyd (140.7), Tyrone Tracy Jr. (141.2) and Jaleel McLaughlin (143.5). If you like drafting Zero-RB or Hero-RB these are all excellent targets with late-round picks.
Chase Brown was previously going in this range, and his ADP is currently 107.8. But the more it looks like he could be the best running back for the Bengals over Zack Moss, the more Brown's ADP will skyrocket. I'm drafting Brown ahead of Moss, and I would take Brown as early as Round 7. Moss currently has an ADP of 77.7.
I continue to monitor the other ambiguous backfields like Pittsburgh, Tennessee and Washington. For the Steelers, Najee Harris (68.4) is being drafted ahead of Jaylen Warren (87.8). Tony Pollard (78.7) is being drafted ahead of Tyjae Spears (103.0) in Tennessee. And for the Commanders, Austin Ekeler (87.0) is being drafted before Brian Robinson Jr. (88.4).
For all of these backfields, I would rather have the running back at the cheaper cost. And in Washington, I have Robinson ranked ahead of Ekeler, and Robinson is a breakout candidate this season.
Wide receivers
With Nacua dealing with a knee injury, we should see Kupp's ADP start to rise. He's currently at 41.5, but I would draft him toward the beginning of Round 3.
Hopkins' ADP is 100.4, but he should start to fall since his status for Week 1 is questionable due to a knee injury. Ridley's ADP is 77.4, but I would draft him toward the end of Round 5 or the beginning of Round 6 in any three-receiver league. He should benefit the longer Hopkins is out to develop a stronger rapport with Levis.
For the Chargers, we'll see how Fantasy managers deal with drafting Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer now that Herbert is injured. McConkey's ADP is currently at 92.5, and Palmer is at 136.8. Even if Herbert isn't 100 percent for Week 1, I would still love to get those receivers at that price.
Other receivers that I plan to target with late-round picks based on their current ADP are Jaxon Smith-Njigba (107.1), Keon Coleman (107.2), Rome Odunze (110.3), Brian Thomas Jr. (117.7), Jameson Williams (117.9), Romeo Doubs (130.6), Khalil Shakir (132.2), Curtis Samuel (134.2), Rashid Shaheed (147.9), Josh Downs (155.6), Ja'Lynn Polk (170.1), Rashod Bateman (186.7) and Darnell Mooney (219.0). All of these receivers should outperform this draft value if it remains at the current rate.
While those late-round options are intriguing, one difference-maker at receiver worth keeping an eye on for his ADP is Malik Nabers. I've moved Nabers up to No. 39 overall, but his ADP here is 63.2. That's an insane value if he stays in this range, but I expect his ADP to climb to at least Round 4.
Some other high-end receivers with great values based on their current ADP include Jaylen Waddle (41.4), DK Metcalf (47.1), DeVonta Smith (47.2), Tee Higgins (58.2), Christian Kirk (72.9) and Chris Godwin (81.2). All of these receivers can be top-20 Fantasy options this year.
Tight ends
Travis Kelce (ADP of 25.6) continues to get drafted as the No. 1 tight end ahead of Sam LaPorta (30.2). I have both ranked back-to-back in Round 3, but I would draft LaPorta first.
I would also draft Trey McBride (52.4) ahead of Mark Andrews (43.2) as the No. 3 tight end, but those guys are close. And I like that Dalton Kincaid is the No. 5 tight end at 58.1, and he's one of my favorite breakout candidates this season.
The next three tight ends are the most interesting to me with George Kittle (63.5), Kyle Pitts (69.9) and Evan Engram (73.3). This is the right range for this trio, but I would draft Pitts first of this group, followed by Kittle. The only thing that would change is if Brandon Aiyuk is traded, and then Kittle would likely move to the No. 5 tight end.
While many Fantasy managers are nervous about trusting Pitts (again), I'm willing to buy into him (again) with Kirk Cousins as the new quarterback in Atlanta. Hopefully, Pitts will be a breakout candidate this season with better passes and more opportunities from Cousins.
Jake Ferguson (91.9) continues to hold strong as the No. 9 tight end, but after him there are several viable candidates for the No. 10, 11 and 12 tight end. ADP has it David Njoku (96.5), Brock Bowers (102.4) and T.J. Hockenson (107.9), but I would rather draft Dallas Goedert (112.8) at 10, Pat Freiermuth (135.1) at 11 and Bowers at 12.
Freiermuth is one of my favorite sleepers this season, and I expect Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to lean on Freiermuth a lot as long as he's the No. 2 option in the passing game behind George Pickens. And the value is amazing for Freiermuth if his ADP remains in this range.
