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USATSI

By this point in the season, it can feel like I have said everything I have to say about every player in the NFL at least 10 times. The thing I have to remember is that while I've been talking about the 2024 Fantasy Football season since the Chiefs beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, many of you are just tuning in. With that in mind, I wanted this edition of the Breakouts article to be more all-inclusive than past versions have. I'll give you the obvious breakouts that everyone is expecting, my favorite breakouts, and some of my favorite dark horse breakouts. All told, there 21 Breakouts below. Draft as many as you can on Draft Day if you want to win your league.

Quarterback

Captain Obvious at the quarterback position is Anthony Richardson, and I don't imagine I need to spend too much time on why. He played two full games last year, only averaged 211.5 passing yards per game, and averaged more than 28 Fantasy points per game. He could lead all players in rushing touchdowns if he stays healthy. He and Kyler Murray are my favorite picks for surprise players to finish as QB1. There's a lower floor with Richardson because of his injury history and lack of experience, but if everything goes right he could match Cam Newton's best season.

My Favorite Quarterback Breakouts

My favorites that aren't quite as obvious are Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams, but the flashes they've shown in the preseason may change that. Both Daniels and Williams have made electric plays with their legs and their arms. 

Daniels has been practicing in South Florida with the Dolphins and both Dave Richard and Pete Prisco have raved about his arm. That's big because he averaged 94.5 rushing yards per game last year at LSU. He enters the league with 1,000-yard rushing upside. If he's above average as a passer then he has Lamar Jackson upside, which means he has QB1 overall upside.

Williams has one of the best receiving corps in the NFL and 400-yard rushing upside himself. The good from him in the preseason has looked like Patrick Mahomes, even Tyreek hill agrees. With his talent and this receiving corps, the sky is the limit.

While the upside is unlimited for these two rookies, they are still rookies. For that reason, I would like to pair them with Jared Goff if possible. If I miss on Goff I'll settle for one of my two dark horse breakouts.

Dark Horse Quarterback Breakouts

Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in 2023. In 2022 he led the league in touchdown rate, yards per attempt, and passer rating. There's clear elite upside when it comes to passing production with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle as his top two targets. I expect the defense to take a step back this year, which could lead to 600 pass attempts for Tagovailoa. That opens up the possibility of a 5,000-yard season woth 40 passing touchdowns. Not many QBs realistically have that much upside.

Trevor Lawrence doesn't have Tua's passing upside, but he doesn't have to because he does a lot more on the ground. He averaged 21.2 rushing yards per game last year and is at 19.3 for his career. He's also scored nine times on the ground in the past two seasons. Combine that with the 600 passes he's expected to throw, and Lawrence just needs some better fortune than he had last year. While we can't guarantee that, it would be hard to match his deep ball and red zone bad luck in 2023. He's topped 4,000 yards passing two seasons in a row, with his rushing production, the passing touchdowns are all he's missing. Brian Thomas Jr. could help in that area.

Running Back

Do I even need to say that Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson are breakouts? They're both consensus first-round picks, and they're both top-four picks for me. In fact, with Christian McCaffrey's calf injury and CeeDee Lamb's holdout, I believe you could make the case for Hall and Robinson at 1.01 and 1.02. Their upside looks like a McCaffrey season, just absolutely breaking Fantasy Football. And I'm talking about one of his 30 FPPG seasons from Carolina. Hall or Robinson could lead the league in rushing, touchdowns, and receptions by a running back and I would not be that surprised. Do not be afraid of their Round 1 ADP.

My Favorite Running Back Breakouts

James Cook averaged 19.6 touches and 103 yards per game in his final seven games, which came after Ken Dorsey took over the Bills offense. That's a workhorse workload, but it's also true that Ty Johnson, Latavius Murray, and Leonard Fournette all combined to average 10 carries per game. In other words, Dorsey just ran a more run-heavy system and there's plenty of room for Ray Davis to have a role. I expect that will continue in 2025, and with the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, I also expect a big workload in the passing game for Cook. He's still just 24 years old and has averaged five yards per carry and 9.6 yards per catch for his career, both elite marks. He should rank top five in the NFL in total yards, and I expect a touchdown boost, even if Josh Allen continues to lead the team in rushing touchdowns.

The new Seattle coaching staff cannot stop raving about Kenneth Walker, and Zach Charbonnet has not been able to stay on the field this preseason. That leads me to project a career-high 276 touches for Walker, and I also expect a boost in efficiency in Ryan Grubb's new offense. If this offense plays as fast as Washington's did last year, Walker will be a top-10 back.

Dark Horse Running Back Breakouts

Javonte Williams is two years removed from an ACL injury and despite a bunch of bad reports this offseason, looks like the clear RB1 for Sean Payton's Broncos. The Broncos led the NFL with a 32.1% running back target rate last year, and ranked sixth with 506 running back opportunities. While Williams will share with Jaleel McLaughlin, a 60% share of those opportunities gives him a top-10 upside.

I understand if you are scared of Zamir White. His teammate, Alexander Mattison, is a great example of why you should be. This is the profile of a back that could disappoint you, but that's being factored into his ADP, which means he could also win you a league. In the last four games of 2023, without Josh Jacobs, White produced 457 yards from scrimmage on 93 touches. If this Raiders defense is legit, White could challenge for the lead league in rush attempts.

Wide Receiver

Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Drake London are all being projected by the entire industry to produce at levels they never have before. They're all third year wide receivers with first-round draft capital and improved situations, so it's not hard to see why. Wilson and London got significant quarterback upgrades, assuming those Achilles hold up, and Olave got a new offensive coordinator from the Kyle Shanahan tree. I am most confident in Wilson, I'm fine with Olave's ADP, but I'm missing out on London at cost. Still, I am projecting London to produce 13 more catches, 223 more yards, and 2.5 more TDs than he ever has. 

My Favorite Wide Receiver Breakouts

Rashee Rice has re-emerged as my favorite breakout candidate. At this point, it does not appear likely that he will face a suspension in the 2024 season and we have received no indication that he will be placed on the commissioner's exempt list. A potential suspension is still a small concern, which is the only reason I don't have him ranked as a top-12 wide receiver. Patrick Mahomes has raved about Rice's improvement in Year 2 and I expect him to play more snaps than any other Chiefs' pass catcher. He played at least 67% of the snaps in the Chiefs final six games of 2023 and was on pace for 122 catches and 1,468 yards. The arrival of Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown may lower those numbers, but they'll also take the top off the defense which will increase Rice's efficiency. Here are my projections for him based on target rate. For what it's worth, he had a 25% target rate in his final seven games last year:

Michael Pittman set career highs in targets, receptions, and receiving yards last year and I think he could be considerably better for Fantasy Football in 2024. That's because the threat of Anthony Richardson as a runner should help Pittman's efficiency and I don't believe he'll only score four touchdowns again. Pittman projects as a top-15 wide receiver for me and is available in Round 4 of most drafts. His value does take a big hit in half or non-PPR, he's strictly a PPR breakout.

Dark Horses

Christian Watson found out this offseason that his hamstrings were asymmetrical and then he went to work fixing the problem. So far this preseason it seems to have worked and Watson could be in for a monster breakout campaign. In his last 17 games, Watson has caught 59 passes for 945 yards and 12 touchdowns, including three games where he played fewer than two-thirds of the team's offensive snaps. He should blow those catch and yardage numbers away if he can stay healthy.

Brian Thomas Jr. got off to a slow start to camp, but the rookie first-round pick seemingly has a highlight a day the past week. His route tree is growing and he looks like the clear top deep threat for Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence was a very good deep passer last year but lost more production to drops and pass interference penalties than any other QB not named Patrick Mahomes. Thomas should slot into the Calvin Ridley role, which gives him top-20 upside if he can successfully convert red zone opportunities more than Ridley did.

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid falls into that Drake London category for me. I am projecting a breakout just like everyone else, but his ADP feels a little too rich. The way Kincaid proves me wrong is if he either scores double-digit touchdowns or improves a lot on last year's mediocre efficiency. He had a bad combination of a very low aDOT and almost no YAC in 2023. If those change then he could leap into the top three at the position.

My Favorite Tight End Breakout

This one might seem obvious too, but Trey McBride is my number one tight end and maybe my most rostered player by the time all is said and done. Currently, he's going in Round 5 of CBS ADP, closer to Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts than Travis Kelce. I expect McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. to dominate targets, and I expect a big boost in efficiency for McBride with Harrison drawing so much attention. McBride was on pace for 1,114 yards after he took over for Zach Ertz last year and this was not some flash in a pan. He produced 1,121 yards in 12 games in his final season of college. If he's there in Round 4 he's one of the easiest picks in the draft.

Dark Horse

We're drafting CeeDee Lamb as a top-two wide receiver in Fantasy Football largely based on a monster second half. I agree with that, the Cowboys made a clear philosophical change and Lamb broke out as a 24-year-old. I'm not so sure we shouldn't be making as big a deal about Jake Ferguson's second half. After the Cowboys' Week 7 bye Ferguson produced 60 catches for 664 yards and seven touchdowns in 12 games including the playoffs. That's 13.8 PPR FPPG, which is not two far from the 14 points per game I project for the big four this season. If there's a surprise top-five tight end this year, I would bet it's Ferguson.