I hope that Geno Smith (knee) plays in Week 16 against Minnesota because then we can start Jaxon Smith-Njigba and potentially DK Metcalf with confidence in all leagues. But if Sam Howell starts for Seattle then I'm going to be nervous about Smith-Njigba and Metcalf against the Vikings.
The matchup is amazing since Minnesota is No. 1 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Eight receivers have scored at least 12 PPR points against the Vikings in just their past four games alone, with four touchdowns over that span.
Smith-Njigba is an easy start with Smith. Smith-Njigba has scored at least 18.3 PPR points in four of his past five games, and he has three outings over that span with at least seven targets. He has emerged as the No. 1 receiver in Seattle.
Metcalf is tougher to trust since he's scored 10.6 PPR points or less in four games in a row, and he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7. In his past two games against Arizona and Green Bay, Metcalf has seven catches for 77 yards on nine targets.
But given the matchup, I would feel better about Metcalf as a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues. That is, if Smith starts.
Howell looked lost coming in for Smith in Week 15 against Green Bay, and Howell could struggle against Minnesota's blitzes. So let's hope Smith starts in Week 16, and then we can trust Smith-Njigba and Metcalf against the Vikings.
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WRs to Start
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Nabers got back into the end zone in Week 15 against Baltimore for the first time since Week 3, and hopefully, he's healthy enough to finish the season strong despite battling various ailments and quarterback woes. Drew Lock is expected to start at quarterback in Week 16, and Nabers scored at least 14.9 PPR points in each of Lock's starts against Dallas and New Orleans, with 23 targets for 13 catches and 148 yards combined in those two outings. The Falcons are No. 4 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and they lead the NFL with 20 receiving touchdowns allowed to the position. It would be great if Nabers scored again in Week 16.
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Aidan O'Connell (knee) is expected to start for the Raiders after missing Week 15 against Atlanta, and that's great news for Meyers. Meyers only scored 10.9 PPR points against the Falcons with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, but prior to that, Meyers had scored at least 13.7 PPR points in three games in a row and five of his past six outings. The Jaguars are No. 3 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and Meyers has top-15 upside in all leagues.
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Allen is hot coming into Week 16 against Detroit, and hopefully, he can beat up on the Lions like he did in Week 13. Allen had five catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit on Thanksgiving, and that's one of three games with at least 20.2 PPR points in his past four outings. The Lions are No. 7 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and Allen and D.J. Moore should be considered the No. 2 Fantasy options in all leagues in Week 16. Moore has scored at least 15 PPR points in three of his past four games, and he had 23.7 PPR points against the Lions in Week 13.
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I hope Smith is back as a must-start Fantasy receiver, and he scored at least 13.7 PPR points in each of his past two games against Carolina and Pittsburgh. He has 18 targets over that span for 15 catches, 146 yards, and two touchdowns, and he should continue to benefit with Dallas Goedert (knee) out. Smith has scored at least 14.8 PPR points in four of his past five games against the Commanders, and I like him as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues in Week 16.
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Shakir is worth using as a No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, and he comes into Week 16 against New England having scored at least 15 PPR points in three of his past four games. He has at least seven targets in eight games in a row, and he scored a touchdown in each of his past two outings against the Rams and Lions. The Patriots have allowed five touchdowns to receivers in their past four games, and Shakir should continue to be the No. 1 option for Josh Allen in Week 16.
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Sleepers (Start/Sit)
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Flowers is worth using as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in Week 16, and he's due for a big game after scoring fewer than 12 PPR points in five games in a row. He has one touchdown over that span, which came in the first game against the Steelers in Week 11, but he only had two catches for 39 yards on six targets in that game. He has at least seven targets in three games in a row, and Pittsburgh has struggled recently against opposing receivers, as seven guys have scored at least 12.5 PPR points against the Steelers in their past four games.
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McMillan is worth using as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues heading into Week 16 at Dallas. He has been impressive in his past two games against Las Vegas and the Chargers, with nine catches for 134 yards and three touchdowns on 13 targets, and hopefully, he stays hot against Dallas. The Cowboys are No. 9 in most Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers, and Baker Mayfield has made McMillan his No. 2 target opposite Mike Evans. This should be another solid outing for McMillan in Week 16.
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Thielen had a down game in Week 15 against Dallas with just 10.1 PPR points, but he still had seven targets for the third game in a row. Prior to Week 15, Thielen had scored at least 19.2 PPR points in each of his previous two games, and he should continue to be a go-to option for Bryce Young. The Cardinals have allowed at least one receiver to score at least 16.9 PPR points in three of their past four games, and Thielen has the best chance to reach that mark in Week 16.
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Mooney had no catches on one target in Week 15 at Las Vegas, which crushed a lot of Fantasy managers in the first round of the playoffs. But I'm going to use him as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver again in Week 16 against the Giants, with Michael Penix Jr. taking over at quarterback for Kirk Cousins. There should be some chances for Penix to show off his arm down the field, and Mooney is the receiver who could benefit the most from a big play or two. It's risky to trust Mooney in Penix's first start, but don't be surprised if Mooney rebounds with a positive stat line in Week 16.
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Downs has now scored 6.2 PPR points or less in consecutive games, which is disappointing. But he had at least seven targets in each outing against Detroit and Denver, and I expect him to perform better in Week 16 against Tennessee. He had seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on nine targets against the Titans in Week 6, but that was with Joe Flacco under center. I like that Tennessee has allowed seven receivers to score at least 14.1 PPR points in the past five games, and Downs is the only Colts receiver I trust in this matchup.
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WRs to Sit
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Williams has yet to play a game outdoors this season since he missed the Lions game at Green Bay in Week 9. And he's struggled on the road this year with three games with 8.3 PPR points or less in five outings away from Detroit. Last year at Chicago, Williams had no catches on two targets and one carry for 4 yards. And he had five catches for 28 yards on seven targets in Week 13 against the Bears this season on Thanksgiving. Williams is a low-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues in Week 16.
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Riley Moss (knee) remains out for the Broncos again, but Patrick Surtain II might cause problems for Johnston in Thursday's game. Johnston only had three catches for 22 yards on four targets in Week 6 at Denver, and the Broncos are No. 7 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers. Ladd McConkey remains a high-end No. 3 Fantasy receiver in all leagues, but Johnston should be considered a No. 4 Fantasy receiver in this matchup.
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Hopkins is coming off a down game in Week 15 at Cleveland with five catches for 36 yards on six targets, and I'm nervous about Patrick Mahomes playing through an injured ankle in Week 16. Derek Stingley Jr. could make things tough on Hopkins, and Houston just held Tyreek Hill to two catches for 36 yards on seven targets. Hopkins scored at least 13 PPR points in three games in a row prior to Week 15, but I would only start him in deep three-receiver leagues in Week 16.
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You know the deal with Samuel by now. He comes into Week 16 having scored 6.1 PPR points or less in five games in a row, and he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6. The 49ers tried to get him going in Week 15 against the Rams with seven targets, and he finished with three catches for 16 yards and two carries for 3 yards. There's little reason to trust Samuel against the Dolphins, and Miami is No. 4 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
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Bust Alert (Start/Sit)
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You know the deal with Samuel by now. He comes into Week 16 having scored 6.1 PPR points or less in five games in a row, and he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6. The 49ers tried to get him going in Week 15 against the Rams with seven targets, and he finished with three catches for 16 yards and two carries for 3 yards. There's little reason to trust Samuel against the Dolphins, and Miami is No. 4 in the fewest Fantasy points allowed to opposing receivers.
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