The Lineup Cheat Sheet combines Fantasy analysis and game-flow predictions with a confidence scale to give you a definitive answer on who to start in your leagues.
It's pretty simple: The scale runs from 1-10. The higher the number next to a player's name, the more confident you should be to start him. The numbers are not a projection, just a confidence score to help you pick who to start. Every relevant player for Week 1 is here, so if a player isn't listed, don't start him.
To find a specific player, use your search function -- CTRL-F on PCs and Command-F on Macs. If neither of those are options, or if you're on a mobile device, you can scroll by game.
If you're still unsure, just send a note on Twitter (@daverichard) and I'll give it a look, time permitting. Ready to get off on the right foot? Here's how to approach every play for Week 4 in PPR leagues — the non-PPR Cheat Sheet is right here.
More Week 1 help: Trade Value Chart | QB Preview | RB Preview | WR Preview | TE Preview | QB start/sit | RB start/sit | WR start/sit | Starts, sits, busts, sleepers
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
The line wants us to believe: Dallas' offense will struggle. And it's a legitimate concern: Dak Prescott is playing in his first meaningful football game in nearly a year against one of the league's best defenses. There will be rust. Tack on Dallas' offensive line already dealing with some injury issues and it's not crazy to think the Cowboys will come out of the gate a little slow.
| Dak Prescott | (8.4) | Tom Brady | (9.4) |
| Ezekiel Elliott | (7.9) | Ronald Jones | (6.3) |
| CeeDee Lamb | (8.6) | Giovani Bernard | (5.5) |
| Amari Cooper | (8.1) | Leonard Fournette | (5.3) |
| Michael Gallup | (4.9) | Mike Evans | (8.7) |
| Blake Jarwin | (3.9) | Chris Godwin | (8.3) |
| Cowboys DST | (2.5) | Antonio Brown | (6.8) |
| | | Rob Gronkowski | (5.7) |
| | | Buccaneers DST | (7.5) |
The line wants us to believe: Tennessee can out-last Arizona in a high-scoring matchup. It's not crazy to think the Titans can exceed their projected point total of 27.5 -- they did it 10 times last year. That's two more times than the Cardinals, but the Titans defense has some suspect parts that the Cards can capitalize on. Specifically, I'm not sold the Titans pass defense can hold up for four quarters. I could see Arizona take this game very late.
| Kyler Murray | (9.0) | Ryan Tannehill | (8.3) |
| Chase Edmonds | (6.5) | Derrick Henry | (9.7) |
| James Conner | (5.0) | A.J. Brown | (9.6) |
| DeAndre Hopkins | (9.3) | Julio Jones | (8.2) |
| Rondale Moore | (4.5) | Anthony Firkser | (4.9) |
| A.J. Green | (3.4) | Titans DST | (3.3) |
| Kyler Murray | | Ryan Tannehill | |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: Houston's better than what public perception suggests. There's no doubt the oddsmakers could have gotten away with the Jaguars giving up as many as six points. So why only give three? To trick you, duh! This is one of a handful of win-able games for Houston, who happens to have a solid defense and offensive line (both potentially better than the Jaguars, actually!). You might not know it because all you've heard about is that the Texans' quarterback situation is a mess. The team will be fired up because it's Week 1 when optimism can still exist. Do not be surprised to see an upset.
| Trevor Lawrence | (7.1) | Tyrod Taylor | (2.7) |
| James Robinson | (8.8) | Mark Ingram | (4.9) |
| Laviska Shenault Jr. | (5.4) | Brandin Cooks | (6.4) |
| Marvin Jones | (6.1) | Nico Collins | (2.2) |
| D.J. Chark | (5.3) | Texans DST | (2.3) |
| Jaguars DST | (5.9) | | |
The line wants us to believe: Washington isn't that good. I've been under the assumption all offseason that Ryan Fitzpatrick was an upgrade at quarterback, the offensive line is healthier than it was last season and the defense is as dominant as ever up front. Getting a point with the Football Team at home feels too good to be true. We'll learn a lot about the Chargers in this game, but the reality is both offenses should blow past their projected point totals.
| Justin Herbert | (7.9) | Ryan Fitzpatrick | (6.6) |
| Austin Ekeler | (8.0) | Antonio Gibson | (8.9) |
| Keenan Allen | (8.4) | J.D. McKissic | (4.1) |
| Mike Williams | (4.2) | Terry McLaurin | (8.9) |
| Jared Cook | (5.1) | Adam Humphries | (2.5) |
| Chargers DST | (5.2) | Logan Thomas | (6.9) |
| | | Washington DST | (8.1) |
The line wants us to believe: The Bengals are a live home dog. That, or the oddsmakers knew they could get away with making it a short line to get some nickels on the Bengals. The truth is that the Vikings greatly improved every aspect of their defense and should be in a good place offensively. This is already a big test for Cincinnati's offensive line and defense, one I don't think they can pass. Cincinnati lost by four-plus points in half of Joe Burrow's 10 starts last year.
| Kirk Cousins | (7.5) | Joe Burrow | (7.3) |
| Dalvin Cook | (9.8) | Joe Mixon | (8.3) |
| Justin Jefferson | (9.2) | Tyler Boyd | (6.45) |
| Adam Thielen | (7.7) | Tee Higgins | (7.2) |
| Tyler Conklin | (3.7) | Ja'Marr Chase | (5.6) |
| Vikings DST | (6.8) | Bengals DST | (2.4) |
The line wants us to believe: The Jets defense can't keep up with Sam Darnold. The truth is, any defense can keep up with Sam Darnold. He's been an inconsistent passer his whole career and taking on his old team won't make him any better. In fact, it might make him worse because the Jets coaching staff is pretty savvy. Do the Jets actually have the defensive personnel to capitalize on Darnold's mistakes? That's the only thing holding me back from going with the Jets to win outright. Darnold has nine career wins by six-points (38 starts).
| Zach Wilson | (4.7) | Sam Darnold | (5.4) |
| Michael Carter | (4.4) | Christian McCaffrey | (9.9) |
| Tevin Coleman | (4.7) | D.J. Moore | (7.9) |
| Corey Davis | (6.0) | Robby Anderson | (7.6) |
| Elijah Moore | (5.5) | Terrace Marshall Jr. | (4.8) |
| Jets DST | (3.0) | Dan Arnold | (4.3) |
| | | Panthers DST | (6.6) |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: The Eagles have to earn their credibility this year. New coach Nick Sirianni doesn't come into Philly with much of a pedigree and there's still skepticism over how good Jalen Hurts can be. But Atlanta's coaching situation is only nominally better with Arthur Smith leading the way (Dean Pees as defensive coordinator is pretty good). The edge is given to the home team with the better quarterback.
| Jalen Hurts | (8.2) | Matt Ryan | (7.0) |
| Miles Sanders | (7.2) | Mike Davis | (7.4) |
| DeVonta Smith | (6.5) | Calvin Ridley | (9.7) |
| Jalen Reagor | (3.3) | Russell Gage | (1.9) |
| Quez Watkins | (3.0) | Kyle Pitts | (7.3) |
| Dallas Goedert | (5.9) | Falcons DST | (3.1) |
| Eagles DST | (5.0) | | |
The line wants us to believe: The Steelers will struggle to hang with the Bills. This is something I completely believe -- the Bills defensive line is much deeper than it's been and the offense has evolved into a full-time passing approach. The Steelers defense, especially the secondary, has some weak spots. I fully expect a decent amount of money to come in on the Steelers, and I fully expect the Bills to win by 10.
| Ben Roethlisberger | (7.2) | Josh Allen | (9.6) |
| Najee Harris | (8.2) | Devin Singletary | (5.1) |
| Diontae Johnson | (7.4) | Stefon Diggs | (9.4) |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | (7.3) | Emmanuel Sanders | (4.4) |
| Chase Claypool | (6.6) | Cole Beasley | (1.7) |
| Eric Ebron | (4.7) | Bills DST | (7.1) |
| Steelers DST | (6.4) | | |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: Seattle is marginally better than Indianapolis. This feels like the oddsmakers want you to take Seattle, especially when you consider the Colts' tumultuous offseason. Could the Colts truly put it all together when Carson Wentz (and multiple offensive linemen) missed a bunch of training camp and the preseason? I'm skeptical, especially since it feels like the whole world is sleeping on the Seahawks defense being pretty good.
| Russell Wilson | (8.7) | Carson Wentz | (4.6) |
| Chris Carson | (8.7) | Jonathan Taylor | (9.2) |
| DK Metcalf | (9.5) | Nyheim Hines | (3.7) |
| Tyler Lockett | (8.5) | Parris Campbell | (3.5) |
| Gerald Everett | (5.3) | Michael Pittman | (5.0) |
| Seahawks DST | (5.8) | Colts DST | (4.9) |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: Detroit won't get completely blown out. Everyone thinks the Lions stink. On paper, they absolutely do, and a matchup against a good 49ers defense won't help. But if that's the case, shouldn't they get more than 7.5 points? Could we be getting rickrolled by the oddsmakers on this one? To take the Niners is to count on Kyle Shanahan finding a way to win by eight-plus points. That happened five times last year.
| Jimmy Garoppolo | (4.0) | Jared Goff | (2.5) |
| Raheem Mostert | (7.7) | D'Andre Swift | (6.55) |
| Trey Sermon | (6.2) | Jamaal Williams | (5.9) |
| Brandon Aiyuk | (6.7) | Tyrell Williams | (4.1) |
| Deebo Samuel | (3.9) | Amon-Ra St. Brown | (2.8) |
| George Kittle | (8.7) | T.J. Hockenson | (7.1) |
| 49ers DST | (9.2) | Lions DST | (1.5) |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: The Browns aren't improved. Since these teams met in January, a five-point win for the Chiefs, the Browns upgraded much of their defense and will get Odell Beckham back on offense. Kansas City made some upgrades too, but it's very much in line with public perception to simply assume the Chiefs will score a ton of points. Don't be surprised if the Browns keep it close.
| Baker Mayfield | (5.7) | Patrick Mahomes | (9.5) |
| Nick Chubb | (9.3) | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | (7.3) |
| Kareem Hunt | (6.8) | Tyreek Hill | (9.9) |
| Odell Beckham | (6.9) | Mecole Hardman | (5.9) |
| Jarvis Landry | (4.3) | Travis Kelce | (9.5) |
| Browns DST | (4.8) | Chiefs DST | (6.9) |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: The Giants aren't as bad as they're made out to be. To the oddsmakers' credit, the Giants do have what should be a very good defense. But their offense feels messy, especially since they intend to take things slowly with Saquon Barkley. Denver's offense looked pretty good this preseason and the defense might be among the best in the league. Even at home, the Giants feel overmatched.
| Teddy Bridgewater | (4.5) | Daniel Jones | (4.3) |
| Melvin Gordon | (6.7) | Saquon Barkley | (7.8) |
| Javonte Williams | (6.4) | Devontae Booker | (4.2) |
| Jerry Jeudy | (8.0) | Kenny Golladay | (5.1) |
| Courtland Sutton | (5.8) | Sterling Shepard | (4.0) |
| Noah Fant | (6.5) | Kadarius Toney | (2.3) |
| Broncos DST | (8.2) | Giants DST | (5.1) |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: The Saints are still a strong team without Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. There's definitely a feeling that the oddsmakers want you to take the Packers, especially since they're practically ignoring the Saints losing their dome-field advantage. So without the New Orleans noise, and with Jameis Winston for the first time, why don't the Saints have more points to their side? The issue is that I'm not convinced the Saints defense will be able to do enough to slow down the Packers ... but maybe they're good enough to keep things close.
| Aaron Rodgers | (8.8) | Jameis Winston | (6.7) |
| Aaron Jones | (9.5) | Alvin Kamara | (9.1) |
| A.J. Dillon | (5.2) | Marquez Callaway | (6.3) |
| Davante Adams | (9.8) | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | (2.7) |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | (3.8) | Tre'Quan Smith | (2.6) |
| Robert Tonyan | (6.1) | Saints DST | (5.4) |
| Packers DST | (5.6) | | |
The line wants us to believe: The line wants us to believe: The Mac Jones hype is real. The oddsmakers know the public perception of Jones is very positive, but they didn't quite raise the line as much as they could have. It's just a guess, but they probably see this matchup as razor close and they inflated the Pats side because of Jones and the game's location. I've watched Jones play, and in many ways, he's ahead of Tua Tagovailoa. This close game should prove it.
| Tua Tagovailoa | (5.8) | Mac Jones | (6.1) |
| Myles Gaskin | (7.6) | Damien Harris | (7.5) |
| Jaylen Waddle | (6.2) | James White | (5.4) |
| DeVante Parker | (4.7) | Jakobi Meyers | (5.7) |
| Mike Gesicki | (6.7) | Nelson Agholor | (3.6) |
| Dolphins DST | (7.2) | Jonnu Smith | (6.3) |
| | | Hunter Henry | (4.5) |
| | | Patriots DST | (7.4) |
The line wants us to believe: Chicago's defense is no match for the Rams. Los Angeles' projected point total is 26, but Sean McVay's Rams have scored 24, 7 and 6 points against the Bears over the past three years. Matthew Stafford's arrival definitely should help their chances, but it's their first regular season game together versus a pretty solid defense. This might not be such a high-scoring matchup.
| Andy Dalton | (2.3) | Matthew Stafford | (7.7) |
| David Montgomery | (8.1) | Darrell Henderson | (7.1) |
| Allen Robinson | (6.55) | Sony Michel | (6.0) |
| Darnell Mooney | (4.6) | Robert Woods | (8.8) |
| Cole Kmet | (4.1) | Cooper Kupp | (7.8) |
| Bears DST | (4.7) | DeSean Jackson | (3.1) |
| | | Tyler Higbee | (5.5) |
| | | Rams DST | (9.0) |
The line wants us to believe: Baltimore won't blow out Las Vegas. It feels like a trap. The Ravens, with their historically strong defense and incredibly versatile quarterback, are perceived to be much better than the Raiders. And how could the oddsmakers lose sight of the Ravens winning each of their past four Week 1 games by at least 20 points?! That track record along with the expected weak Raiders defense compels me to back Baltimore, even if it's fishy.
| Lamar Jackson | (9.9) | Derek Carr | (4.8) |
| Ty'Son Williams | (6.75) | Josh Jacobs | (6.6) |
| Marquise Brown | (6.65) | Kenyan Drake | (4.0) |
| Sammy Watkins | (3.2) | Henry Ruggs III | (5.2) |
| Mark Andrews | (8.3) | Bryan Edwards | (3.7) |
| Ravens DST | (8.0) | Darren Waller | (8.4) |
| Raiders DST | (1.7) |
So who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising quarterback could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 1 rankings for every position, plus see which QB is going to come out of nowhere to crack the top 10, all from the model that has out-performed experts big-time.
