Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Saquon Barkley). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Bills have won four straight against Miami (including the playoffs), but they've barely blitzed them in those four games. Only once did Buffalo send the blitz more than 22% of the Dolphins' dropbacks. This may have to do more with the Bills not wanting to waste pass-rush resources because Tua Tagovailoa frequently gets the ball out quickly. The result hasn't been great for Miami's passing game: one game out of the four with more than one passing touchdown and one game with more than 250 yards. In fact, Tagovailoa has just one career game out of seven against the Bills with multiple passing touchdowns. If the story changes this week, it would be because the Dolphins attack the middle of the field to take advantage of both linebacker Matt Milano and slot cornerback Taron Johnson being out. It makes Jonnu Smith a deep sleeper since he lined up in the slot on 11 of his 18 snaps, but it's probably a better opportunity for the names you know in Miami's offense.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, De'Von Achane, James Cook, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Dalton Kincaid
BETTER AS FLEX: Raheem Mostert (non-PPR), Khalil Shakir (PPR), Jonnu Smith (deep sleeper)
SITS: Tua Tagovailoa (borderline low-end starter), Ray Davis, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Bills DST, Dolphins DST
Not being able to run against the Chiefs is one thing. Not being able to run against the Raiders is another. The raw stats won't show this, but Las Vegas' run defense was actually good last week save for two second-half runs by JK Dobbins including one that could have been stopped for a yard but instead went for 46. Baltimore's run blocking must improve after last week -- expect more zone-scheme runs with the tight ends contributing there and then using play-action off of that. Ultimately this should be a good week for Derrick Henry. If it's not, then sound the alarms because Baltimore not only could have permanent O-line issues but it also plays three capable offenses in a row starting in Week 3 and Henry's workload could be affected.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Davante Adams, Mark Andrews, Ravens DST (risky after this week)
STARTS: Brock Bowers
BETTER AS FLEX: Zay Flowers, Isaiah Likely, Alexander Mattison (low-end PPR option)
SITS: Gardner Minshew, Zamir White, Justice Hill, Jakobi Meyers, Rashod Bateman, Raiders DST (they play Carolina in Week 3, then some decent matchups after)
The Panthers played heavy zone coverage, as predicted, but they also fired up the blitz a whopping 46.2% of dropbacks last week against the Saints. It had almost no effect as Derek Carr felt a pressure on just 15.4% of his dropbacks, an absurdly low amount given their blitzing. Justin Herbert not only faces that Panthers defense, but he'll be the first to get them without D-line stud Derrick Brown. It should yield tremendous numbers on the ground, but after the Chargers were 50-50 in pass-run plays last week, it might offer some downfield shot opportunities as well.
STARTS: JK Dobbins (low-end RB2), Chargers DST (top-3 option, and they play the Steelers in Week 3)
BETTER AS FLEX: Gus Edwards (non-PPR only), Ladd McConkey (PPR only), Josh Palmer (sleeper), Diontae Johnson (PPR only), Xavier Legette (sleeper)
SITS: Justin Herbert (low-end starter), Bryce Young, Chuba Hubbard, Panthers DST
This is a much different Saints offense: They threw the ball 10 times off of play action (they averaged 5.1 such passes per game last year), they used motion on 46 plays (20.7 plays per game with motion last year) and they attempted a pass of 15-plus Air Yards on 37.5% of their dropbacks (they averaged 21% last year and never hit 37.5%). It's proof positive that they're poised to be much more effective in 2024. However, they're clearly stepping up in class to a Cowboys defense that is the polar opposite of the one they faced last week. Dallas will be zone-heavy, but they have the secondary to make it tougher on the Saints, and their pass rush will be fierce. It's probably for the best to avoid the non-obvious Saints, but if they can come out of this game looking good, their Fantasy stock will collectively rise.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara, CeeDee Lamb, Chris Olave,
STARTS: Dak Prescott (low-end starter), Cowboys DST
FLEX: Brandin Cooks, Rashid Shaheed (sleeper), Ezekiel Elliott (non-PPR), Taysom Hill
SITS: Derek Carr (stash-worthy), Rico Dowdle, Juwan Johnson, Saints DST (no favorable matchups until maybe Week 4)
Expect a high-scoring game -- potentially into the 60s. The Lions secondary still isn't fixed from last season as they gave up four pass plays last week for 16 or more yards including a Tyler Johnson catch-and-run for 63. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers secondary will be down as many as three defensive backs including safety Antoine Winfield and it's still to be determined if they'll be at full strength along their D-line. Those factors shouldn't change the DNA of this defense, though -- they'll still blitz a bunch. Jared Goff was pressured on 10 dropbacks last week, completing 5 of 7 passes for 90 yards and a touchdown, better numbers than when he wasn't pressured. That was a huge surprise considering how he struggled with pressure pretty much every year of his career. At minimum, Goff should have easy short-area targets he can hit when the Buccaneers' pass rush gets too close. It'll help him and his pass-catchers have a shot at great numbers. And I'd expect the same for Mayfield, who clearly has benefitted from a better offensive line and deeper, healthier receiving corps.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Godwin, Sam LaPorta
STARTS: Baker Mayfield (top-10 QB), Jared Goff (top-12 QB), David Montgomery (low-end RB2 in PPR, higher in half/non)
FLEX: Jameson Williams (top-30 WR)
SITS: Bucky Irving (big-time stash!), Jalen McMillan (stash!), Buccaneers DST, Lions DST
There are no good stats to share on Malik Willis. In three starts with the Titans he never once threw for even 100 yards (67 career attempts) and has yet to throw a touchdown. Had Willis spent all offseason and training camp with the Packers, perhaps there would be room for even a little bit of optimism considering the new offense he's in, the receivers he'll throw to, and the matchup this week. But he'll have been with the team for exactly 20 DAYS when he takes the field in Week 2. I know the Colts have played at least 75% zone coverage in every single game since Week 1 of last year with a heavy emphasis on Cover-3, but I can't help but think they'll be much more focused on crashing the Packers run game, especially after being gashed by the Texans there last week. For what it's worth, Willis owns a 71.4% completion rate against Cover-3, the best rate against any coverage, but with just 5.6 yards per attempt. Maybe it'll be schemed-up play-action passing that gives Willis and the Packers a salvageable chance, but if they can't move the ball then this will quickly devolve into a monster week for both Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Anthony Richardson (top-3 QB), Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs (RB2), Colts DST (low-end option)
STARTS: Michael Pittman (borderline WR2 in PPR, more of a WR3 in non),
FLEX: Jayden Reed (low-end WR3)
SITS: Malik Willis, Emanuel Wilson, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Adonai Mitchell (stash!), Alec Pierce, Packers DST
A myriad of problems for Deshaun Watson should lead to the Jaguars blitzing him. Last week Watson was off-target on 13.3% of his throws, but it felt like more. He was mostly fine operating on schemed-up short passes but held the ball too long most of the time otherwise. His line struggled with pass rush pressure -- a major problem -- and he ultimately got off only one really good deep throw that Amari Cooper dropped just in front of the end zone. Jacksonville's front rarely blitzed last week, but that figures to change this week. The bet is Jacksonville's defense will stick with more man coverage after playing it on about two-thirds of their snaps last week, and it will lead to more tough sledding for the Browns passing game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Travis Etienne
STARTS: Jerome Ford (low-end RB2), Evan Engram, Browns DST (great schedule ahead), Jaguars DST (one-week option)
FLEX: Amari Cooper (high-end option), Brian Thomas Jr.
SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson, Tank Bigsby (stash), Christian Kirk (low-end WR3 in PPR), Jerry Jeudy, Jordan Akins
TRU Media says Sam Darnold was pressured on 42.3% of his dropbacks (mostly in the second half), but the stats from the NFL Gamebook say Darnold was hit twice and sacked once with another rushed pass getting picked off. Pro Football Focus said Darnold didn't get hit as he was thrown even one time. Darnold indeed looked good in Week 1, but Week 2 will bring a 49ers defense that not only can apply serious pressure without blitzing but is familiar with Darnold after he spent 2023 with them. That makes for a tougher test for the Vikings offensive line. In no way would I be cautious enough to avoid Justin Jefferson in my lineups, and Aaron Jones is kind of downgraded but still likely to make an impact through volume, but I don't think there's another Vikings player I'd feel good about starting.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, 49ers DST
STARTS: Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones (low-end RB2), Brandon Aiyuk (back up to WR2 range)
SITS: Brock Purdy (high-end QB2), Sam Darnold, Ty Chandler, Jalen Nailor, Vikings DST (Week 4 is their next favorable matchup)
The Patriots opened the season with a lot of man-to-man against the Bengals last week -- 43% of snaps to be exact, though they cooled off from that in the fourth quarter when they had a lead. I'm curious to see if they'll keep trying to push their luck with that aggressive mindset against Seattle this week. Geno Smith typically hasn't been as effective against man coverage, especially when blitzed, but last week was an exception as he completed 5 of 7 throws while under duress against man-to-man with one off-target throw. Even when he wasn't blitzed he was as good against man coverage as he was zone, and he passed 12 times against both. This matchup should be easier for him because the Patriots pass rush, for all the good they did against Joe Burrow, still only blitzed on 20% of their pass plays and applied pressure on 23% of Burrow's dropbacks (fifth-lowest). I suspect Smith will take every opportunity to fire at DK Metcalf when it's man-to-man -- he had a 34% target per route run rate against man coverage last season -- and don't rule out a bounce-back game for Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the only Seahawks receiver in 2023 and 2024 to have improved metrics against man coverage compared to zone.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kenneth Walker
STARTS: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB2), DK Metcalf (WR2), Seahawks DST (no favorable matchups after this week until Week 5)
FLEX: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (low-end option in PPR), Tyler Lockett (low-end option in PPR)
SITS: Geno Smith (decent QB2), Jacoby Brissett, Antonio Gibson, Noah Fant, Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Patriots DST
Titans coach Brian Callahan reiterated this week that he wants the backfield split to be a little more even than it was in Week 1, but if Tony Pollard is the more effective back then you know he's going to keep getting fed. Pollard averaged 5.1 yards per rush and had a 25% avoided tackle rate against a very experienced Bears run defense. I thought the new coaches did a decent job improving the Titans offensive line, though there's still room to grow. Stopping the run will absolutely be a focus of the Jets after Jordan Mason ripped them for 147 yards (5.3 per carry) on Monday. New York missed nine tackles and let up 3.4 yards after contact per rush despite allowing just one run over 14 yards. Against a lesser O-line this week, I'll give the Jets the benefit of the doubt here; combine that with Callahan's comments about more sharing and this could be a bit of a letdown game for Pollard.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson
STARTS: Jets DST (the first of at least three favorable matchups)
FLEX: Tony Pollard (more of an RB3), Calvin Ridley (low-end WR3)
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Will Levis, Tyjae Spears, Allen Lazard, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Williams, Tyler Boyd, Tyler Conklin, Chig Okonkwo, Titans DST
If the Giants were hesitant to blitz Sam Darnold last week (23% blitz rate) then you can be sure they'll be even more hesitant to get after Jayden Daniels and risk him ripping off a ton of rushing yards. After all, it was the Buccaneers' aggressive nature to blitz that pushed Daniels to take off and run instead of staying in the pocket. That running was awesome for his stat line but awful for his pass-catchers' numbers. There were two plays where Terry McLaurin got wide open and could have had 50-plus-yard touchdowns -- one was an overthrown pass from a clean pocket, the other when Daniels took off and ran instead of keeping his eyes up. If the Giants pass rush is as ineffective as it was last week, Daniels could have a better day throwing with perhaps some good numbers on the ground still. That would also work out nicely for McLaurin against a weak Giants secondary.
STARTS: Jayden Daniels (top-10 QB), Brian Robinson (solid RB2), Malik Nabers, Terry McLaurin (low-end WR2)
FLEX: Devin Singletary
SITS: Daniel Jones, Austin Ekeler (mild PPR flex at best), Wan'Dale Robinson, Zach Ertz (streaming TE), Commanders DST, Giants DST
No offensive line? No Puka Nacua? No problem for Matthew Stafford and the Rams. The matchup has everything to do with it: Arizona's pass rush did all it could to impact Josh Allen last week and their 27% pass rush pressure rate was eighth-lowest in the league. They just don't have a good enough pass rush, even in a favorable matchup against a rag-tag O-line. But the difference between this outing and the ones from 2023 is that the Rams also don't have a good enough defense to affect the Cardinals. It means the game could be a track meet without much impactful defense being played on either side. L.A.'s defense reliably plays a lot of zone (that's good for Marvin Harrison Jr.!) and they didn't bother to blitz much at Detroit in Week 1 nor in two games against the Cardinals last year.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams, James Conner, Cooper Kupp,
STARTS: Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford (low-end QB1), Marvin Harrison Jr. (mid-range WR2), Trey McBride
SITS: Greg Dortch (low-end PPR flex), Tyler Johnson (low-end PPR flex), Demarcus Robinson (low-end PPR flex), Michael Wilson, Colby Parkinson, Rams DST, Cardinals DST
If you're a big fan of offense, watch another game. The Steelers should be able to stick to a run-heavy game plan and find a way to win, maybe with some touchdowns instead of just field goals. Denver's 4.1 yards per carry allowed against running backs at Seattle wasn't that bad, but the eight missed tackles and 10.7% explosive rush rate allowed were daggers. Those numbers don't include what Geno Smith did as a rusher, either. We saw the Steelers lean heavily on Najee Harris when they had a lead late at Atlanta (nine fourth-quarter carries) and could do the same thing here to put the game out of reach. And given the Steelers' amazing pass rush and solid secondary, I would be extremely nervous to use any of the Broncos.
STARTS: Najee Harris (borderline RB2/3), Steelers DST
FLEX: George Pickens (high-end WR3)
SITS: Justin Fields (high-end QB2), Bo Nix, Javonte Williams (RB3 at best), Jaylen Warren (RB3 at best in PPR), Jaleel McLaughlin, Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele (deep-league stash), Pat Freiermuth (streaming TE), Broncos DST
After getting gashed by the Patriots last week, there's a giant bull's-eye on the Bengals defense this week. Cincinnati missed a league-worst 11 tackles on RB runs (three by safety Geno Stone) and allowed a staggering 4.31 yards after contact per rush last week (only the Raiders were worse). The Bengals' history against the Chiefs run game doesn't bode well either -- they've given up at least 5.3 yards per rush to the Chiefs in four of their past five meetings including Week 17 last year. Kansas City can give Isiah Pacheco a nice workload and then play off of that with play-action fakes and maybe two or three designer runs for rookie Xavier Worthy.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Patrick Mahomes, Ja'Marr Chase, Travis Kelce
STARTS: Isiah Pacheco (top-12 option), Rashee Rice (top-12 option in PPR), Chiefs (streaming DST, they get Atlanta next week)
FLEX: Xavier Worthy, Zack Moss
SITS: Joe Burrow (borderline low-end starter), Chase Brown (low-end flex at best, but keep stashing), Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki (low-end streaming TE), Bengals DST
The Texans barely blitzed last week and paid dearly with a low 25% pass rush pressure rate, but it was probably by design as they took on running threat Anthony Richardson. They do not have nearly the same kind of threat this week in Caleb Williams, so there could be a shade more blitzing and definitely more pressure as they attempt to mimic what the Titans did and disrupt Williams in the pocket. Chicago didn't run the ball much in Week 1 and probably won't try to run much in Week 2, especially against a Texans defense that held Indy's running backs -- Jonathan Taylor included -- to three yards per rush. If Williams doesn't grow up quick, he's going to be in for a long day without the benefit of his defense carrying him like they did in Week 1.
OBVIOUS STARTS: C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins
STARTS: D.J. Moore (low-end WR2), Texans DST
FLEX: Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Keenan Allen (low-end flex in PPR)
SITS: Caleb Williams, D'Andre Swift (RB3 at best), Cole Kmet (streaming TE), Dalton Schultz, Gerald Everett (deep sleeper), bears DST
Atlanta's offense couldn't pass protect Kirk Cousins very well last week, and Cousins couldn't move around the pocket very much. How they adapt for this week against an Eagles defense with some unique talent on the defensive line is critical, but unless Cousins can get his wheels moving it could be ugly. Last week, Jordan Love hit pass plays of 70 and 33 yards to Jayden Reed because he maneuvered around the Eagles pass rush and Reed got past the second level of the defense. Also, two Packers scoring drives came after Jalen Hurts turnovers and a third was extended by third-down penalties. The point being, I would give credit to the Eagles defense for being better than the scoreboard showed last week. That could spell bad news for the Falcons passing game.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
STARTS: Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert (low-end option), Eagles DST
FLEX: Drake London (high-end WR3)
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Falcons DST
Who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising running back could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 2 Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which RB comes out of nowhere to crack the top five, all from the model that has outperformed experts big-time.
