Fantasy Football Week 3 Quarterback Preview: Starts, sits, waivers, numbers to know, and more
Everything you need to know about quarterback for Fantasy Football in Week 3
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3 min read
These weekly position previews are a tool to prepare you for the coming week in Fantasy Football, and hopefully get you excited. Today, we cannot start with excitement. Not at the quarterback position. Joe Burrow is having surgery on his turf toe, and won't be available for the next three months. J.J. McCarthy has a high ankle sprain and could miss the next two to four weeks. Jayden Daniels has a knee injury, and his status is in doubt for Week 3. Justin Fields is in the concussion protocol. Oh yeah, and Brock Purdy is still dealing with his turf toe injury and is highly questionable for Week 3. Things are not awesome.
In Superflex leagues, this means we will have a bidding war over Jake Browning (Cincinnati), Carson Wentz (Minnesota), Marcus Mariota (Washington), and maybe even Tyrod Taylor (New York). I'll discuss that waiver priority order, it's complicated, in the waiver wire section below. In many one-QB leagues, you may not have a reason to bid on any of them. But two could be an exception.
The first is Browning. For one thing, he gets to play with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. That could elevate any QB. We have already seen it. Browning started the last seven games of the year for the Bengals in 2023 and averaged 267 passing yards per game. He threw multiple touchdowns in three of those games and ran for a score in two of the games he didn't. He was QB8 per game in that stretch, averaging 21.8 Fantasy points per game. In my early Week 3 projections, he came out to QB16, but he is less than a point behind QB10. The other advantage he has over the other backups is that he is probably getting a minimum of 10 starts if he stays healthy; this is no one-week band-aid.
The second is Mariota, which will probably surprise you. Last year, he played 85% of the offensive snaps against the Panthers and scored 23.5 Fantasy points. Then in Week 18, he played 55% of the snaps and scored 29.8 Fantasy points. He has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt over the last three seasons with a 5.4% touchdown rate. Unlike Browning, we don't expect Mariota to get a chance to start more than one or two games. And Daniels hasn't actually been ruled out for Week 3 yet. So you have to be cautious on waivers. But as you'll see in my projections, he actually projects better than Browning and most of the other QBs in Week 3...if Daniels is out.
That is not to say that I think you should make your lineup decisions the same way I do. I am just thankful if my projections are a part of your process. You always find all of my updated projections over at Sportsline. As of Tuesday you won't find any of the injured QBs mentioned above in my projections, but you will see their backups. If their status changes, the projections will be updated.
Let's get to the rest of the preview:
Week 3 QB Preview
QB Preview
Numbers to know
- -0.91 -- After leading the position in Week 1, Justin Fields was dead last in EPA/DB in Week 2 before leaving with a concussion.
- 9.5 -- Patrick Mahomes leads all qualified rushers at 9.5 yards per attempt and is averaging a career high 6.5 rushes per game. He could set a career high in rushing yards by the time Rashee Rice gets back at this pace.
- 11.0% -- Trevor Lawrence has been plagued by drops through two weeks, with a league-high 11.0% drop rate. That should regress.
- 8 -- Caleb Williams has eight scrambles already, which ranks fifth amongst starting QBs.
- 294 -- The Rams have only given up 294 yards passing total through two weeks, holding teams to a league-best 4.3 NY/A. it could be another low passing total for Jalen Hurts.
- 7 -- The Bears have already allowed seven passing touchdowns, two more than any other defense. Dak Prescott is a starter this week.
- 29.2% -- The Broncos have gotten pressure on a league-best 29% of the drop-backs they have seen, they could make Justin Herbert uncomfortable this week.
- 200 -- Carson Wentz has not throw for more than 200 yards in a game since October of 2022. That covers his last four starts.
- 27 -- J.J. McCarthy averaged just 27 drop backs per game in the first two weeks, which ranks 32nd.
- 280 -- Justin Herbert is averaging 280 passing yards per game. The talent we all knew was there is turning into production this year.
QB Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Adds/Streamers (QB Preview)
Jones doesn't actually rank very well in my early projections. But he was my top QB stash last week and he just delivered against the Broncos. It is getting harder to keep doubting him. If he does it outdoors against the Titans in Week 3, many people are going to view him as a top-12 QB rest of season. Jones already has three rushing touchdowns and his four rush attempts inside the five yard line rank second in the NFL behind only Josh Allen.
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Week 1 was a disaster for the Giants offense. Week 2 was the complete opposite with Wilson throwing for 450 yards and three touchdowns against the Cowboys. This is a much tougher matchup against the Chiefs but Wilson and the Giants will be at home for the first time this year. Wilson leads the NFL in passing yards and he already has 11 rush attempts through two games. Unfortunately, the Giants are also 0-2 so even if he keeps playing well we may see Jaxson Dart sooner rather than later.
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Browning shouldn't cost much in a One-QB league, you may even be able to get him for free. In leagues where you can start more than one quarterback I would expect someone to spend their entire FAB budget on him. Browning has completed nearly 75% of his career 275 attempts and has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt. The sacks and interceptions will probably be bad, but unless those are heavily penalized in your league you shouldn't care.
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One To Stash (QB Preview)
Smith was awful on Monday Night Football and will likely be dropped in more leagues than he is added. But if you are carrying two QBs and streaming, Smith could be a start in Week 4 against the Bears. They have given up the most Fantasy points to QBs this season and just lost their best cornerback for the foreseeable future. The Raiders have the second-highest pass rate over expected through two weeks and Week 4 should be a get right spot for Smith.
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QB Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Dak was my favorite value last week and he remains so this week. Partially because he faces the Bears defense I have written so much about above. This game has one of the highest over/unders on the Week 1 slate and Prescott's Cowboys actually opened as underdogs. He has a chance for an absolutely massive game and on FanDuel he's still priced below a handful of QBs I would start him straight up over.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Ben Johnson sees progress in the Bears passing game and I am inclined to believe him. Vegas is as well as the Bears have one of the largest implied totals on the Week 3 slate at 26. Williams is running more than he did last year and running very well at that. He also faces the only defense besides his own that is giving up 30 points per game to opposing QBs. Don't worry about the errant throws, the upside in Week 3is immense for Williams and the Bears passing game.
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QB Preview
Heath's projections
My full set of Week 3 Fantasy football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. You'll find them here. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 1. Projected stats for all starting quarterbacks are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections at SportsLine.
