Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Breece Hall. You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Cowboys running backs have yet to post over 70 collective rushing yards in a game, one of only three teams to have such a blemish (Raiders, Bears). The short-week preparation and the matchup against a Giants run defense that's only played well against the Browns (just 12 rush attempts by their RBs) could help Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott finally get some decent production. Could they run so well that Dak Prescott will finally have a game where he doesn't have to throw 32-plus times? It feels unlikely. Besides, the Giants secondary has a bunch of injuries that could create big plays for CeeDee Lamb and slippery upstart receiver Jalen Tolbert.
OBVIOUS STARTS: CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Dak Prescott, Malik Nabers, Devin Singletary (low-end No. 2 RB), Jake Ferguson, Cowboys DST
SITS: Daniel Jones, Jalen Tolbert (low-end flex), Wan'Dale Robinson (low-end PPR flex), Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott, Brandin Cooks, Giants DST
There are concerning injuries to both offensive lines that could impact this game. Atlanta is down two starters, a problem that forced Kirk Cousins into feeling pressure quickly and getting the ball out quickly. We saw this earlier in the year, and the Falcons passing game was miserable. New Orleans is a lock to come after Cousins with more blitzes and pressures than usual; they're tied for fifth in the league with 11 sacks. But the Saints also have O-line issues with center Erik McCoy and guard Cesar Ruiz out. That really hindered Derek Carr last week against Philly, who was in his kitchen pretty frequently. The Falcons pass rush blitzes at the eighth-highest rate but only gets pressures at the seventh-lowest mark (and just three sacks), so maybe there's some hope for Carr to bounce back a little bit. I would avoid both quarterbacks if you can help it.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Alvin Kamara, Bijan Robinson (low-end No. 1 RB)
STARTS: Drake London (No. 2 WR), Chris Olave, Kyle Pitts, Saints DST (low-end option)
FLEX: Rasheed Shaheed, Darnell Mooney
SITS: Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Tyler Allgeier, Ray-Ray McCloud, Taysom Hill (streaming TE), Falcons DST
Vintage Andy Dalton? That's how he looked last week, but it's meant in a good and bad way. No doubt, Dalton ran the Panthers offense with better poise and command than Bryce Young. His decision-making and accuracy wasn't always on point, nor was his velocity, both hallmarks of Dalton's prior up-and-down play. Carolina's offensive line was a mixed bag, too. And all of these great numbers came against a rather undisciplined Raiders pass defense. The Bengals pass defense is a candidate to bounce back after getting rocked by the Commanders on Monday -- they held Patrick Mahomes to minimal stats with two turnovers in Week 2 and do have an interception in every game. I'll guess they get aggressive with Dalton and his depleted O-line, especially on third downs (more man coverage, more blitzing), and create some havoc. Diontae Johnson should still command some serious targets, but a let-down game for others in the Panthers offense would be in play.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase
STARTS: Chuba Hubbard (No. 2 RB), Zack Moss, Diontae Johnson, Tee Higgins (low-end No. 2 WR)
SITS: Andy Dalton, Chase Brown (stash!), Miles Sanders, Xavier Legette (stash!), Jonathan Mingo, Andrei Iosivas, Mike Gesicki, Bengals DST, Panthers DST
The Rams have allowed monster games to Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jauan Jennings, so it's not hard to see someone from the Bears post huge stats. But who? L.A. allowed massive average target depths (ADOT) to all three receivers (at least 12.4 yards) while keeping wideouts and tight ends with shorter ADOTs in check. Through three weeks, rookie Rome Odunze has had the deepest ADOT (16.5) ahead of Keenan Allen (9.55), D.J. Moore (8.75), and Cole Kmet (8.24). Odunze also had a breakout game last week versus a Colts defense that got the least amount of pass rush pressure on Caleb Williams this season. The Rams broke out the pressure against the Niners but couldn't finish the job, sacking him once despite an extremely high-for-them 47.4% pressure rate. Chicago's O-line is in flux, and Caleb Williams is guilty of holding the ball too long at times, but he seemed to love throwing deep to Odunze last week and could follow a similar formula this week. Getting Keenan Allen back does throw a wrench into those plans -- Allen was a primary target in Week 1 before he got hurt. I wouldn't mind Odunze as a flex, but in PPR Keenan Allen is the same.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyren Williams
STARTS: D.J. Moore (No. 2 WR), Cole Kmet (streaming TE)
FLEX: Keenan Allen (PPR only), Rome Odunze, Tutu Atwell
SITS: Caleb Williams (high-end No. 2 QB), Matthew Stafford, Demarcus Robinson, D'Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson (stash), Jordan Whittington (stash), Colby Parkinson, Bears DST (low-end option), Rams DST (low-end option)
The Packers used Emanuel Wilson nearly as much as Josh Jacobs last week, including the same amount of fourth-quarter blowout snaps (seven each). It's very possible this was done in an effort to keep Jacobs fresh -- their touches were nowhere near as close in Weeks 1 and 2. However, by most metrics, Wilson has outperformed Jacobs this season, including yards per carry (5.0 to 4.5), rate of five-plus yard runs (47.6% to 37.1%), and avoided tackle rate (23.8% to 17.7%). It's a troubling trend if you have Jacobs on your team, especially since the Packers averaged a 71% rush rate in two games with Malik Willis and essentially gave their coaching staff an opportunity to realize they don't have to put a ton of work on Jacobs' plate. Having Jordan Love back further complicates the offensive distribution since now the Packers will be more apt to throw. The Vikings run defense has given up just one rushing touchdown and one RB run of 11-plus yards this year, and even though they haven't taken on many great rushers, that's still awfully impressive. A tough matchup and the potential to share closer to 50-50 than 70-30 does put a damper on Jacobs' expectations.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Justin Jefferson
STARTS: Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs (No. 2 RB), Vikings DST
FLEX: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson
SITS: Sam Darnold (low-end No. 1 QB), Jordan Love (I'd give him a week), Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor (low-end flex), Emanuel Wilson (stash), Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Tucker Kraft, Johnny Mundt, Packers DST
Jacksonville's defense has been confounding -- they lead the league in man-to-man coverage snaps (the next-closest team has 21 fewer such plays) but are below-average in both blitz rate and pass rush pressure rate despite having a terrific trio in Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Arik Armstead. If they flipped both scripts, they could be pretty good, but as things stand, they're a matchup to target. And boy, do the Texans need one of those. C.J. Stroud has barely seen man coverage this year (15 dropbacks), but when he has, he's completed 77% of his throws for 11.1 yards per attempt, both marks higher than when he faces zone. And naturally, Stroud would prefer he not face pressure, though last week was the first time in a while he struggled with it (as did his offensive line). Bank on him attacking the middle of the field with Foye Oluokun sidelined and new slot corner Christian Braswell yet to force an incompletion. I'll gladly chance Stefon Diggs in my lineup against an inexperienced nickelback in a game where the Texans run game is far from a sure thing (assuming Joe Mixon is out).
OBVIOUS STARTS: Nico Collins
STARTS: C.J. Stroud, Travis Etienne (No. 2 RB), Stefon Diggs (No. 2 WR), Texans DST
FLEX: Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk
SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Cam Akers (low-end RB), Dameon Pierce, Gabe Davis, Dalton Schultz (streaming TE), Brenton Strange (streaming TE), Jaguars DST
Would you have believed me if I told you before the season that Fantasy managers might be more comfortable with Justin Fields than Anthony Richardson by Week 4? At 17.8%, Richardson owns the league's fourth-highest off-target rate behind Tim Boyle, Bryce Young and Skylar Thompson. On the season, he's completed 49.3% of his throws and only has an 8.0 yards per attempt average because he's hit a league-best four passes of 25-plus Air Yards (on 13 attempts). I can't imagine a Steelers defense that's let up 8.3 Fantasy points per game to quarterbacks is going to be an easy matchup for Richardson. Of the 14 quarterbacks to throw for 250-plus yards on Pittsburgh in the past three seasons, just four completed under 60% (not 50%) of their passes. And, no quarterback has rushed for 50 yards against Pittsburgh since 2021. I am nervous about Richardson this week and potentially beyond.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jonathan Taylor
STARTS: Najee Harris (low-end No. 2 RB), George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth (streaming TE in PPR), Steelers DST
SITS: Justin Fields (low-end option), Anthony Richardson, Michael Pittman (low-end PPR flex), Cordarrelle Patterson (low-end non-PPR flex), Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Calvin Austin, Adonai Mitchell, Colts DST
We're three weeks into the season, and Garrett Wilson has yet to top 14.3 PPR points in a game. We can't complain much about the 8.7 targets per game he's seen, but his timing with Aaron Rodgers seems to be a work in progress, at least based on how he fared against the Patriots. Two other issues stand out: One, other Jets pass-catchers are making plays, including Allen Lazard, who's averaging nearly 2.5 PPR points per game more than Wilson on 3.4 fewer targets per game. Two, Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain has earned elite status -- he's literally been thrown at (officially) three times in his past two games against George Pickens and Mike Evans, and on the year, he's given up 12 yards after the catch. I'm not saying Rodgers is going to be scared of throwing at Surtain, but I am saying Surtain will complicate Wilson's week.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Breece Hall
STARTS: Garrett Wilson (low-end No. 2 WR), Tyler Conklin (streaming TE), Jets DST
FLEX: Braelon Allen (non-PPR), Allen Lazard (PPR)
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie (stash), Courtland Sutton, Josh Reynolds, Broncos DST
Tampa Bay will be much more apt to blitz Jalen Hurts and the Eagles if they don't have A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and right tackle Lane Johnson. In two of three games, the Bucs have dialed up the blitz on at least 40% of their opponents' dropbacks, harassing Jayden Daniels in Week 1 but not coming close to hampering Bo Nix last week (zero sacks). If Hurts can evade their pass rushers like Nix did, then he'll have an outstanding game. Hurts has improved how he's handled pass rush pressure since completing just 30.8% of such throws versus the Packers in Week 1, moving on up to a 73% completion rate on his pressured throws last week against the Saints but for just 2.3 yards per attempt (and it was worse on four throws without Smith late last week -- would you believe 1.0 yard per attempt?!). The silver lining is that Bo Nix turned in a 9-47-1 rushing stat line on these Bucs last week, an encouraging number for Hurts to improve on. Plus, the matchup isn't really that bad, considering all of the Bucs' defensive injuries; getting back Vita Vea does help.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Saquon Barkley, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Baker Mayfield (low-end No. 1 QB), Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST (low-end option)
FLEX: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving (low-end non-PPR flex)
SITS: Jahan Dotson, Parris Campbell, Johnny Wilson, Cade Otton
Both defenses rank in the bottom-half in Fantasy points allowed to running backs, both rank in the bottom-seven in defensive rush success rate, and both are in the bottom 10 in missed tackles. You'd guess both teams will just run all over the place, right? Guess again! Both defenses rank in the bottom 10 in Fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, with the Commanders dead last -- even Daniel Jones had 22 Fantasy points against them. This should have the makings of a high-scoring showdown for Fantasy managers to sink their teeth into. Two wrinkles worth mentioning: The Commanders are on the road again after a big road win on Monday, which isn't ideal. Also, the Cardinals pass coverage has been solid against outside receivers so far this year, something that doesn't boost the matchup for Terry McLaurin.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr.
STARTS: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson, Terry McLaurin (low-end No. 2 WR), Zach Ertz (PPR only)
SITS: Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Luke McCaffrey (stash), Cardinals DST, Commanders DST
Jauan Jennings crushed last week against whatever the Rams threw at him, though it's important to note they played less zone coverage than usual, and they were more focused on slowing down Brandon Aiyuk, leaving Jennings open. The Patriots play man-to-man coverage at the fifth-highest rate and have a pair of adept outside cornerbacks in Jonathan Jones and Christian Gonzalez. This is a harder matchup, but not a tough matchup. The Patriots don't consistently blitz at a high rate and rank 24th in pass rush pressure rate, a good development for Brock Purdy. Generally, man-coverage matchups mean huge things for Aiyuk, so he's still worth starting, but in this case, Jennings should have an opportunity to see at least six targets, something he's done seven times in his career, posting at least 10 PPR points every single time. The one obvious issue is who else plays for the Niners -- George Kittle is back and he will definitely impact Jennings' upside. If Deebo Samuel plays too, Jennings could be a dud.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Jordan Mason
STARTS: Brandon Aiyuk (No. 2 WR), George Kittle, 49ers DST
FLEX: Rhamondre Stevenson (non-PPR), Jauan Jennings
SITS: Brock Purdy (borderline No. 1 QB), Jacoby Brissett, Demario Douglas (low-end PPR flex), Ja'Lynn Polk, Hunter Henry, Patriots DST
No Rashawn Slater or Joe Alt on the offensive line. No Joey Bosa or Derwin James on defense. Justin Herbert is banged up if he plays at all. This might sound like a horrible situation to you, but to Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, this is a magical dream scenario where they can attempt to bully the Chiefs with a massive dose of slow-paced, heavy-package runs. L.A. already leads the NFL in rate of rush plays with only one receiver on the field (34.7%), this wouldn't be anything new for them. Just one problem: The Chiefs have allowed 1.3 yards per carry this season against heavy-personnel packages with a 54.5% defensive success rate and zero of 11 runs going for six-plus yards. Last year, that average was 2.5 yards per carry with a 69.4% defensive success rate. To be fair, most of these runs took place in short-yardage situations (because who would use heavy-package runs more than they have to? I mean, besides Jim Harbaugh?). It's my hunch that the Chargers will try this to shorten the game and keep them competitive, but the results might be woefully inefficient. The Chiefs boast a good run defense to begin with and might have the best RB for Fantasy on their side for this matchup.
BONUS NOTE: I wonder if Kareem Hunt will be a bigger part of the Chiefs offense than first believed. Carson Steele ran hard last week but had no elusiveness to his game, nor did he help much on passing downs. Hunt probably offers more playcalling flexibility, which means he could see the field and thus be stashed.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Rashee Rice
STARTS: Patrick Mahomes (low-end No. 1 QB), Carson Steele (borderline No. 2 RB), Travis Kelce (yes, still),
FLEX: J.K. Dobbins (non-PPR only),
SITS: Justin Herbert, Kareem Hunt (stash), Samaje Perine, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, Gus Edwards (droppable)
If Andy Dalton and the Panthers were able to smack the Raiders, couldn't the Browns? Maybe if Deshaun Watson played comfortably. Through three weeks, he's completed a fourth-worst 58% of his passes for a second-worst 4.8 yards per attempt (only Bryce Young was lower). Watson's ninth among passers in attempts of 15-plus Air Yards but has completed just 4 of 21 such throws for 98 yards and an unfathomable 4.7 yards per attempt. Make no mistake, the Raiders pass defense has not played well and was especially undisciplined last week. Now they'll play without stud pass rusher Maxx Crosby, and second-best pass rusher Malcolm Koonce went on Injured Reserve. Especially without Crosby and receiver Davante Adams, the Browns should be in total control. If not, they'll put up an embarrassing effort.
STARTS: Amari Cooper, Brock Bowers, Jerome Ford (low-end No. 2 RB), Browns DST
FLEX: Jakobi Meyers (especially in PPR)
SITS: Gardner Minshew, Deshaun Watson, Jerry Jeudy (low-end PPR flex), Tre Tucker (boom-bust flex), Alexander Mattison (low-end PPR flex), D'Onta Foreman, Zamir White, Jordan Akins, Raiders DST
Buffalo's opponent in each of three games has turned to the pass on at least 61% of their second-half snaps this season. No surprise, it's because the Bills have built second-half leads and forced teams to throw while playing from behind. Might Baltimore be the team to buck that trend? The Bills run defense has just been so-so, letting up 4.0 yards per carry and a startling 11.1% explosive rush rate to running backs, the seventh-highest in football. They've struggled with power-gap rush attempts in large part because they've played a ton of nickel defense. That power scheme the Ravens improved upon last week against the Cowboys (Derrick Henry averaged 8.6 yards per carry). I would expect the Ravens to try controlling the clock with a heavy dose of the run game with play-action passing to attack the middle of the Bills defense. Yep, that should include some modest tight-end involvement. It should be enough to at least keep the game close.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, James Cook, Derrick Henry
STARTS: Zay Flowers, Dalton Kincaid, Mark Andrews (yes, really)
FLEX: Khalil Shakir
SITS: Isaiah Likely (borderline TE starter), Justice Hill, Rashod Bateman, Keon Coleman, Ravens DST, Bills DST
In 10 career starts, Tyler Huntley has averaged 27.6 pass attempts, a 61.6% completion rate, 5.9 yards per attempt, equal 2.5% TD and INT rates, and 14.5% of passes off-target, all on a 7.2 ADOT. Is any of this good? Not really, the numbers are within striking distance to the season-long stats of Desmond Ridder and Will Levis in 2023. But they're better than what the Dolphins would have with Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle, and it gives all of their receiving options a chance to at least be solid against a depleted Titans defense that struggled to get a lot of pressure on rival quarterbacks even with heavy blitzing.
OBVIOUS STARTS: De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill (low-end No. 1 WR)
STARTS: Tony Pollard, Dolphins DST (low-end option), Titans DST (even lower-end option)
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle, Calvin Ridley
SITS: Will Levis, Tyler Huntley, Tyjae Spears, DeAndre Hopkins, Jonnu Smith, Chig Okonkwo
The Lions have played the fourth-most man-to-man coverage through three weeks, and they've done it consistently regardless of opponent. They're also league average in blitz rate and pass rush pressure rate. Losing edge rusher Marcus Davenport will sting, leaving them with just Aidan Hutchinson as their top bull. This plays into Geno Smith's hands very well: he's been effective against all coverages but a little more dangerous against man-to-man, and he's better when he's not pressured. Flipping the matchup, Seattle's blitzed at the sixth-lowest rate this season, and they tend to play more zone coverage. The lack of blitzing will help Goff, but not as much as avoiding FOUR key defensive members of the Seattle front including rusher Boye Mafe and twin D-linemen Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams. I would expect Smith to have the better game, but the door is open for Goff to be good if the Seahawks can put up points.
OBVIOUS STARTS: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DK Metcalf, Jahmyr Gibbs
STARTS: Geno Smith (low-end No. 1 QB), Jared Goff (borderline No. 1/2 QB), David Montgomery, Kenneth Walker III
FLEX: Jameson Williams, Jaxon Smith-Njigba (especially in PPR)
SITS: Tyler Lockett (low-end PPR flex), Noah Fant, Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks DST, Lions DST
Who should you start and sit this week? And which surprising running back could lead you to victory? Visit SportsLine now to get Week 4 Fantasy rankings for every position, plus see which RB comes out of nowhere to crack the top five, all from the model that has outperformed experts big-time.
