The drama of picking from the third slot begins in Round 2, not Round 1.
In Round 1, you're guaranteed one of Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Ja'Marr Chase or Puka Nacua. Rank those four and whoever is atop your list when you're up at 1.03 is who you should take. I listed them as I have them ranked.
What happens next is going to take some thought. As many as 11 wide receivers could be snapped up by the time your pick is up at 22nd overall. One or both of Brock Bowers and Trey McBride could be there. The position with the most flexibility? Running back, but most of the ones in the top two tiers could be gone.
And when you're back on the clock at 27th overall, there might not be a player or position you'll be okay with.
Here are the questions you have to answer before you enter your draft:
1. Who are the top three players you want in Round 1? (already covered)
2. How do you feel about having a stud tight end?
3. Which wide receivers with a top 40 average draft position are you OK with having as your WR1?
3b. If there isn't a wide receiver with a top 40 average draft position you're OK with having as your WR1, then are you willing to potentially bypass Gibbs or Robinson for Chase or Nacua in Round 1?
My draft from the third pick:
1.03: Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
2.10: Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
3.03: Emeka Egbuka, WR, TB
4.10: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, CAR
5.03: Tyler Warren, TE, IND
6.10: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, JAC
7.03: Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
8.10: Ricky Pearsall, WR, SF
9.03: Michael Wilson, WR, ARI
10.10: Jonah Coleman, RB, DEN
11.03: Jordan James, RB, SF
12.10: Chig Okonkwo, TE, WAS
13.03: Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
14.10: Rashid Shaheed, WR, SEA
I had the chance to take Nacua and get that stud receiver on my team, but couldn't resist Robinson. He's averaged at least 20.1 PPR points in his past two seasons. I wouldn't pass him up, even in a three-receiver full-PPR league like this one, and even if it meant making some harder choices later.
But I also had the chance to take McBride or Bowers in Round 2 (I prefer McBride in PPR; you may prefer Bowers). I went with the best player on my board in Barkley, but the reality is that I should have taken one of the TEs. Having an advantage at that position is a well-documented pathway to success because you're getting elite WR production from a position most people just get solid points from. And had I gone with the tight end, I'd have the flexibility to take any position in Round 3.
That said, I still may have taken Egbuka in Round 3 even had I gone with a tight end in Round 2. There was no guarantee I would have gotten the chance at Barkley or a comparable runner at 27th overall, and while ADP suggests Egbuka shouldn't be taken so soon in the third round, I am comfortable with him there. I expect a monster second season and will be ahead of consensus on him. If there's a different receiver you'd prefer (Chris Olave, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins), then it's quite alright to take one of them if they're there.
Remember, the domino effect started when I got Robinson at third overall. I would suspect many of yo u won't have the chance at Robinson at third overall. Had Gibbs and Robinson gone with the first two picks, I would have taken Chase at three. Here's how my first three picks might have looked:
1.03: Ja'Marr Chase
2.10: Trey McBride
3.03: Emeka Egbuka or a RB like Jeremiyah Love, Kyren Williams or Josh Jacobs
I wouldn't blame you if you liked having a tight end stud in Round 2 better than Barkley. I won't make that mistake again.
Another domino effect I had from starting RB-RB was prioritizing wide receivers throughout the draft. That meant passing on running backs between Rounds 3 through 9 -- not that there were amazing values that I passed up -- maybe Chuba Hubbard in Round 8 was one I should have considered. I opted to do this because I would never bench either of Robinson or Saquon, and I only have to start two running backs. Taking five wide receivers, all of whom are 26 or younger, offers me five chances at thriving at that position. I don't mind that too much. Had I taken McBride and then Egbuka, I would have prioritized a running back sooner than Round 9.
Lastly, I didn't hesitate to gravitate toward great value at tight end (Tyler Warren in Round 5) or quarterback (Jalen Hurts in Round 7). You shouldn't either. Grabbing Warren in Round 5 made up for passing on tight ends earlier, and Hurts was a steal in my opinion.
Favorite pick: Jalen Hurts
I recommend trying to steal a quarterback in your drafts this year, and I did exactly that at 75th overall. A consensus top six Fantasy quarterback, Hurts has averaged at least 25 Fantasy points (six-point passing) in at least his first eight games in each of his past three seasons. He's floundered late, but that's something that can be prepared for (or might not even happen). I'm encouraged by the new direction of the Eagles offense.
Pick I'm already regretting: Saquon Barkley
It's not that I think Barkley's going to have a bad year; it's that I wish I had taken a tight end. We've covered this already. On the plus side, I should have every single Eagles rushing touchdown covered between Barkley and Hurts.
Player who could make or break my team: Emeka Egbuka
I'm convinced Egbuka's rookie midseason swoon was because of his hamstring injury, then injuries to Baker Mayfield, the Bucs offensive line and the return of Mike Evans really sealed his fate. I'm also convinced the upside of Egbuka was shown when everyone was healthy early on in Tampa Bay last season and he averaged 20.5 PPR points per game. I like a lot of receivers in the ADP range of 25 to 40, but he's one of the few with game-breaking talent, a gunslinger quarterback and an offense that should throw the ball quite a bit this year.
