Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
It's too early to be absolutely sure on which matchups will be easy and which ones will be tough, but we can take some educated guesses based on healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Christian McCaffrey). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
It's also important to have a keen eye for matchups dictated by the remaining schedule. I am now updating my projected Strength of Schedule rankings broken down by position available on SportsLine. My objective is to break down how the schedule affects every Fantasy relevant player for the upcoming four weeks, the playoff stretch and the entire season. You'll also be able to find my key takeaways on which players you should buy low, sell high and more trade advice.
If you start Boyd, you're counting on volume to carry him to another good stat line, but probably not as good as what he had last week. The expectation is much easier to believe in if catches count because his target volume should remain strong with Higgins out, plus the Ravens will give up plenty of catches to Boyd. It helps that Baltimore's run defense could deter the Bengals from piling the touches on Joe Mixon. He's best as a flex but does have enough upside to be a WR2 in PPR. If catches count I'd start him over Jordan Addison, DeAndre Hopkins and Chris Godwin.
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LAST WEEK: Had his eighth-ever game with 12 or more targets and turned in an 8-117-0 stat line, but also dropped what would have been the game-winning touchdown on a wide-open route in the end zone. That wasn't his only drop, either. It was his first game since Week 4 of 2021 when he had at least 15 PPR points while one of Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins were out.
BOYD: Stayed locked into his slot role last week, playing 85.5% of his snaps there. Boyd has been in the slot for at least 73% of the snaps in every single game this season. However, he had a season-high 30.8% target share last week, a combination of Joe Burrow leaning on his veteran receiver while also taking advantage of the Texans' zone coverage defense that allowed a bunch of underneath throws to be completed. On the season he has an 80.5% catch rate against zone coverage and a 52.6% catch rate against man coverage.
FILM: Boyd moved with good burst off the snap and solid straight-line speed over his past three games. I do think his change-of-direction was previously a bit faster, but he's a grizzled veteran who knows how to push off of defenders without getting caught and adjust to off-target throws. And despite two drops last week, Boyd has solid hands. He's a great source for easy completions for Burrow on designed screens and check-downs, but especially on in-breaking field-crossing routes to beat zone coverage.
ADOT: Boyd's Average Depth of Target (ADOT) has exploded over the past three weeks. Against the Niners it was 10.67, against the Bills it was 14.20 and against Houston last week it was 8.33. He is seeing one or two downfield shots per game.
RAVENS: On the season have allowed the second-fewest yards per catch to receivers who line up in the slot (8.8). They're also sixth-best on Yards After the Catch per reception (YAC/reception) at 3.32. But they do allow a relatively high catch rate -- 71.4% over the course of the year, but 79.2% over their past four games which included dates with Amon-Ra St. Brown and a garbage-time outburst from Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Baltimore's coverages can be adaptive but they're usually in zone coverage the most on first and second downs with man coverage on third downs.
Thursday night games tend to bring out the best performances in running backs because they can heal up quicker than a collective defense can. Edwards isn't a slug by any means and the Ravens have been willing to run the ball well against pretty much everybody they've faced. Expect him to lose touches to Keaton Mitchell and some third-down snaps to Justice Hill, but his chances of scoring and putting up 50 yards with it makes him an easy RB2 in non-PPR and a borderline RB2 in PPR. I'd start him over Jerome Ford, James Cook, and the Rams RBs in non- and half-PPR, but I'd put him behind Ford if it's full PPR.
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LAST WEEK: Reverted back to being in a part-time role, but still a pretty good one, as he played 54% of the snaps and took 2 of 2 snaps inside the 5. His rushing average was a rough 2.2, but the Browns stiff run defense definitely played a part. It was the seventh time in eight games Edwards led all Ravens running backs in rush attempts, but his second-fewest in those eight.
FILM: Edwards had 11 yards on his first two carries as his O-line created space for him to power forward but lost six yards on a botched handoff with Lamar Jackson. He ultimately had five carries good for at least four yards thanks to quick burst off the snap and good-for-him speed to grind just past the line of scrimmage. The Browns deserve credit for focusing on the run game -- they stacked the box on seven of his rushes.
WEEK 2: The Ravens' running backs averaged 4.9 yards per carry on 21 rushes against a Bengals run defense that had both Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson on the field (Hendrickson is expected to play but Hubbard will not). Edwards compiled a 10-62-1 rushing stat line.
BENGALS: Not only have they given up a touchdown to a running back in all but three games this year, they've also yielded 4.6 yards per carry on the season and got blasted by Devin Singletary and the Texans last week at 5.0 yards per rush. They do deserve credit for limiting Christian McCaffrey and the Bills RBs in the two games prior, though.
It would make a ton of sense for the Ravens to lean on Mitchell in a crucial division game -- the Bengals are on the road on a short week, they're coming off a game they were pulverized on the ground in, and Mitchell has relatively fresh legs. But there are certain situations like near the goal line and on passing downs where Mitchell simply cannot be expected to play. That limits the expectation on his volume, but he has the speed to do some damage even if he has 7 to 10 touches. He's tough to trust as a must-start running back, but in deeper leagues he's a flex with higher upside than D'Onta Foreman (with Khalil Herbert expected back for the Bears), Kareem Hunt (tough matchup in a downgraded offense), Jahan Dotson, Odell Beckham or Luke Musgrave.
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LAST WEEK: Impressed again with his lightning-quick speed on a 39-yard run where he bounced outside and made the house call. That was exciting, but statistically he didn't do much else -- two other carries on the day, one catch (a good one -- it went 32 yards). He played just three snaps in the second half.
FILM: The dude was fast, but he also had sick agility to cut and burst into open space and then kept up his top gear to race past pretty much anyone. As a receiver he showed experience, not just in his route-running but also in following blockers, knowing when to slow down in his routes and when to speed up. He's not raw there, though he does need to work on being on the same page as Lamar Jackson on scramble drills. Mitchell's biggest detriment, predictably, is his pass protection -- he's not ready to pick up rushers, and that will probably cut into his playing time more than anything. But the potential of him in a backfield with Lamar Jackson on traditional runs, RPOs, zone-reads and pass plays is endless and probably terrifying for defensive coaches.
HARBAUGH: Explained on Sunday that Mitchell wasn't a part of the game plan in the second half, and that's why he barely played. This week he gave a little more detail, adding "I don't think we felt probably as an offensive coaching staff we were going to throw the whole gameplan on him. ... Looking back on it, would we have wanted him out there more? Yes. I think that'll factor into this gameplan." Harbaugh said the same thing about Mark Andrews not getting opportunities last week, adding that the team wants the ball to go to him.
BENGALS: Were busted last week by Devin Singletary, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry and had four runs of 12-plus yards. It was a shocking display considering the Bengals had allowed 3.2 yards per carry and two runs of 12-plus yards in the prior three games against the Seahawks, 49ers and Bills. Then again, Cincinnati had the lowest defensive success rate on runs in Weeks 6 through 9, so perhaps we should have seen this coming.
This is (another) make-or-break week for Tony Pollard, but no one should be surprised if it comes with his workload being reduced. Against a tougher opponent Pollard would be a borderline bench for Fantasy, but the Panthers have made nearly every running back they've faced look good. Hopefully Pollard isn't an exception. I'd give him one more week as a RB2 and use him ahead of Derrick Henry, Najee Harris and Isiah Pacheco.
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It would be an indictment on the Cowboys coaching staff if they don't let Dowdle's role evolve this week. That's why he's worth rostering, not necessarily starting. However, in what figures to be a blowout game script, there is some notable touchdown potential for Dowdle, making him a worthwhile desperation RB as a bye-week replacement in Week 11. I'd rather trust him to fall into the end zone in an easy matchup than D'Onta Foreman, A.J. Dillon or either Panthers RB.
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LAST WEEK: The Cowboys didn't take long to get Rico Dowdle involved with the starters, giving him touches on the team's first possession against the Giants (as soon as their fifth play), but even after a 21-yard run gave the Cowboys first-and-goal from the 4, Pollard came in and failed to score on two short-yardage carries. And Pollard stayed in a long time after that, even getting another carry from four yards out that was close to counting for a touchdown, but was just short. Dowdle didn't get carries again until the late second quarter when he ripped off runs of 9 and 17 yards on consecutive plays. Even the start of the second half saw Pollard struggle on a run, then Dowdle led off the next series and had a gain of 8 yards and stuck around for a bunch of snaps until near the drive's end when Pollard came back in. Dowdle's touchdown from a yard out was a nice example of him handling the physicality of short-yardage work but it came with 2:19 left in a massive blowout win with most Cowboys starters off the field.
FILM: Last week it looked like Pollard wasn't reading his linemen very well -- there were many plays where he didn't run to open spaces nor run with much patience. Dowdle was the opposite -- he had much better patience and vision to take advantage of space in front of him. Coach Mike McCarthy blamed it on "tough looks" for Pollard and "clean looks" for Dowdle. But the one thing McCarthy cannot say is that Pollard is the more explosive-looking back of the two; Dowdle ran smoothly and with more burst than Pollard, and he was cutting faster than Pollard as well. Both did a good job of breaking tackles but Dowdle had the strength to push forward at the goal line, which Pollard didn't have earlier in the game.
THIS SEASON: Dowdle has Pollard beat on nearly every rushing metric you could ask for, including yards per rush (4.5 to 3.9), yards after contact per rush (3.19 to 2.7), avoided tackle rate (19.1% to 8.9%) and five-yard gain rate (40.4% to 29.6%). Dowdle also has a much better success rate on converting carries inside of 5 yards for touchdowns (33% to 15.4%). And on carries versus stacked boxes, Dowdle has 3.0 yards per rush to Pollard's 1.7. If this keeps up then it's a matter of time before Dowdle really takes meaningful snaps away from Pollard.
POLLARD: Has routinely played over 60% of the snaps this season and seeing 15.0 carries per game as a result. Last year he almost never played that many snaps and averaged 12.1 carries per game without many chances near the goal line. If the Cowboys coaching staff were to revert Pollard's workload to what he did last season, he'd see 20% fewer carries without a guarantee of a boost in efficiency. And he could potentially lose goal-line work to Dowdle.
PANTHERS: Have given up the second-most Fantasy points to running backs this season, complete with 12 rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores to the position. A RB has 15 or more PPR points in four of their past five games. Statistically the Panthers rank bottom-five in yards after contact per rush allowed and have missed a third-most 50 tackles on rushes this season.
Cooper's saddled with a downgrade at quarterback against a Steelers defense that will be tough to beat, but much tougher on the passer and not the receiver. There is some massive downside that Fantasy managers normally ignore with Cooper because he gets so many targets (8.0 per game). If a third of his throws are off-target, and if the matchup is especially stingy on downfield passes, then Cooper could be left with four or five catches for 50 or 60 yards. That's flex worthy, but his ceiling isn't much higher than that and there is potential for a single-digit game even in full-PPR. If you're playing for upside, Rashee Rice, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Brandin Cooks are better options than Cooper in full PPR with Rice and Cooks especially better in non-PPR.
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BROWNS: Will start rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback this week after Deshaun Watson suffered a fractured shoulder last week, ending his season. Cleveland has one passing touchdown and eight interceptions this season when Watson has not played.
DTR: The rookie had a live arm at UCLA but hasn't flashed it yet in the pros. Not that he's had the chance -- in his lone start this year against the Ravens, Thompson-Robinson completed 52.8% of his 36 passes for a putrid 3.36 yards per attempt, no touchdowns and three interceptions for a QB rating of 25.3 and a Fantasy point total of 1.2 thanks to 24 rushing yards. His longest completion went 16 yards -- to Cooper. It was his only reception that game.
PRESSURE: Thompson-Robinson was pressured on about 40% of his throws in Week 4 and completed 28.6% of them for 1.0 yard per attempt and a 35.7% off-target rate. Those aren't typos, I checked twice. When he wasn't pressured he was kinda serviceable actually -- 69.6% completion rate, 5.0 yards per attempt and a 4.3% off-target rate. A 6.1-yard ADOT when he wasn't pressured helped his efficiency for sure.
STEELERS: In their past two games with defensive end Cameron Heyward back the Steelers have applied pressure on 44.2% of their opponents dropbacks, the third-most in football. They've also blitzed at the seventh-highest rate (32.6%). Especially with left tackle Jedrick Wills on the shelf, you should expect the Steelers bring some serious heat to Thompson-Robinson.
COOPER: Has two touchdowns, a 71.8% catch rate, a 33.3% explosive play rate and 17.1 yards per catch when he's been on the field with Deshaun Watson. When it's been anyone else, Cooper has caught 39.4% of his targets for 18.1 yards per catch with an 18.2% explosive play rate and not just zero touchdowns but no end-zone targets either. His ADOT and route depth averages have remained basically the same regardless of who's thrown him a pass, so his role hasn't necessarily changed. 10 of 33 throws have been uncatchable.
STEELERS: Outside receivers have caught just 56% of their targets over the Steelers past four games (fifth-lowest in football) for a league-average 13.3 yards per catch. Where the Steelers have struggled is with YAC, giving up 151 yards after the catch in those games for an average of 5.39 per catch, fifth-most in football in that span. One touchdown has been scored in those past four by outside wideouts. Across the board their defensive stats are better on throws of 15-plus Air Yards, hurting the chances of any outside receiver picking up a big play on a deep throw.
I'm not convinced at all that this matchup will be easy for Fields, but I wouldn't be shocked in the least if he had to throw a lot. He has a safe floor of about 50 yards rushing to go with a 228.6 passing yard average through his first five games. One touchdown and no turnovers with those numbers would make for 20 Fantasy points. That's where I would pin him this week since it's his first game back. I do like a lot of quarterbacks better -- Brock Purdy, Joshua Dobbs and Jared Goff. That leaves Fields outside of my top-12 for Week 11, but I would still consider him start-worthy over Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
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THIS WEEK: Fields returns following a four-game absence after suffering a dislocated thumb. You might remember that he got off to a slow start in his first three games before erupting against the Broncos in Week 4 and the Commanders in Week 5. Before he got hurt in Week 6 he completed 6 of 10 passes for just 5.8 yards per attempt with an interception and four sacks over 17 dropbacks. He also had 46 yards rushing on eight carries.
MANY UNHAPPY RETURNS: Whether it was his first game to begin a season, or his first game back after an injury, Fields has started slow. You could throw out his first-ever start -- he wasn't ready to play then. But when he came back from injury in 2021 and 2022 in games against Green Bay he threw inefficiently both times and only salvaged his stat lines with his rushing numbers (at least 70 rush yards in each). Fields also started last season and this season slowly. It could take him some time to jump right back into being effective, especially if his rushing prowess doesn't pad his stat line like it has before.
LIONS: Have held four quarterbacks -- Desmond Ridder, Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo -- to under 20 Fantasy points each (Love somehow had 19, the rest were bad). Every other quarterback has thrown multiple touchdowns and notched at least 23 Fantasy points with two recently getting over 30 Fantasy points: Lamar Jackson in a blowout win, Justin Herbert last week in a shootout. Even Bryce Young, thanks to garbage time, got 23 Fantasy points on these Lions.
LIONS: Despite the lack of defensive dominance they have started to become a blitz-heavy defense over the past three weeks, which has led to some decent pass rush pressure. It didn't help them against Jackson, nor against Herbert (for reasons already outlined).
FIELDS: Has noticeable differences in his numbers when he's pressured (48.4% completion rate, 5.0 yards per attempt) versus when he's not (70.4% completion rate, 9.0 yards per attempt), and he's been pressured nearly as often as he's been unpressured. His ADOT and off-target rate are basically the same either way, but he's been less aggressive attacking downfield when he's pressured. Expect the Lions to bring it against an offensive line that's healed up but still not even considered league average.
HISTORY: Fields had over 130 rush yards in each game against the Lions last year. He totaled four touchdowns (two rushing) in his first meeting with 167 yards passing (42 Fantasy points), but was pretty ineffective as a passer in the second meeting completing 7 of 21 throws for 75 yards and a score (18 Fantasy points).
If you consider Love, it's because he figures to be in a high-scoring matchup against a beatable opponent. That usually opens the door to at least a 19-point game with potential for more (like, say, 22 points). I can't call him a top-15 quarterback, much less a top-12, but I would say he has more upside at this point than Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith. I would start Joshua Dobbs, Kyler Murray and Justin Fields, among others, ahead of him.
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LAST WEEK: Didn't have a great game at Pittsburgh but did do enough to throw for nearly 300 yards with a couple of touchdowns, 11 rush yards and two turnovers. That's been pretty much Love's stat line anytime he's had 19-plus Fantasy points, like he had last week (20).
LOVE: Has notched at least 19 Fantasy points in all but three games this year, two coming in Weeks 8-9 against the Vikings (tough defense) and Rams (didn't have to do much).
FILM: Love came out hot last week, completely ignorant to the Steelers pass rush and making good reads without forcing the ball deep. His opening drive touchdown throw to Romeo Doubs was perfect. His second touchdown on a deep ball to Jayden Reed was thrown with anticipation and good accuracy. Things weren't as rosy in the second half -- he hit some awesome deep shots to Luke Musgrave (twice) and Dontayvion Wicks -- but he was a little bit more off-target and especially without pinpoint accuracy on some completions that forced receivers to adjust. Both of his interceptions came in front of or in the end zone in the last four minutes of the game -- better play from Christian Watson could have led to scores instead of turnovers. I think he played moderately better than what we saw in Week 8 for example, and I like that the Packers aren't forcing him to cut throws short.
CHARGERS: Have allowed 22-plus Fantasy points to all but three quarterbacks in nine games this season. The ones who didn't hit that total? Aidan O'Connell in his first start, Tyson Bagent in his second start and Zach Wilson in his 30th start. Ranking in the bottom-five in yards per catch allowed (11.9) and bottom-10 in completion rate allowed (68.2%) and YAC/reception allowed (5.37) does not help. They've been susceptible to deep throws, too.
Murray's in a good spot: He played mostly well last week, shook off some cobwebs, and now will take on what feels like an equally favorable matchup this Sunday. He should have had well over 20 Fantasy points last week -- he's a safe bet to get there this week. I'd start him over Jared Goff, Justin Fields and Sam Howell.
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LAST WEEK: Despite a sub-60% completion rate that reflected a litany of drops, and despite a smattering of off-target throws, Murray looked really good. He threw for 249 yards (but it should have been closer to 300), he didn't throw any touchdowns (he should have had two), he had one interception (OK fine that was ugly) and he ran for 33 yards and a touchdown on the ground in a come-from-behind win against the Falcons.
FILM: Considering the circumstance of being in a new offense with new coaches and coming back from a torn ACL, Murray more than passed the eyeball test. No doubt he moved well, both in terms of running for yardage and evading pressure in the pocket but also in moving to a different launch points and then throwing. He was under center a lot more than I remember which helped him riddle the Falcons and make him more unpredictable. His arm was as good as ever, throwing with good timing and anticipation a decent amount of times. The nitpicks: He was not as accurate as I'm sure he would have wanted to be, and I thought he was hyper-focused on getting the ball out quick and not consistently reading the defense in hopes of finding a better target to throw to. There were a handful of passes where he seemed to settle for a shorter target rather than wait a beat for a better option to get open and throw to. I'm hoping that changes as soon as this week.
TEXANS: Have rarely blitzed and tend to come up small in the pass rush pressure department (slightly above-average this season). They rank fifth in highest completion rate allowed and fourth in yards per attempt allowed since their bye; Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield each had over 250 yards and two passing scores against them while Bryce Young had a good-for-him 235 yards and one touchdown game in Week 8. Point is, even with some good talent in the secondary, this isn't a pass defense to fear.
GAMESCRIPT: Lately the Texans have been involved in high-scoring shootouts, opening the door to quarterbacks putting up numbers. This should be another kind of game. Arizona has dialed up at least 32 pass attempts in all but one of their past seven games.
Singletary should continue to get a great opportunity to rack up numbers and potentially score against the Cardinals, even if it may not be as efficient as other backs. I moved him toward the top of the volume-driven Fantasy rushers, making him an RB2 I'd pick ahead of Najee Harris, Derrick Henry and Isiah Pacheco.
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LAST WEEK: Had his first game with more than 60 rush yards this season -- and his fourth-career game with over 100 yards (his first since late 2022). He finished with an improbable 30-150-1 stat line against the Bengals. Sixteen of his 30 runs gained at least four yards, and Singletary had 1.87 yards before contact per rush, the most for any Texans running back this year.
FILM: I thought the left side of the Texans O-line did a good job making space for Singletary, and I thought Singletary looked pretty good running the ball and playing with physicality until the whistle. But the one trait Singletary has always had -- the agility to change direction in a pinch -- really flashed last week. It's always been his calling card and it definitely caught many Bengals defenders flat-footed on at least a handful of runs.
THIS WEEK: Singletary should remain the primary back for the Texans with Dameon Pierce still sidelined with an ankle injury. He played 81% of the snaps last week including all seven inside the 10-yard line. The Texans have averaged 23.4 RB runs per game, sixth-most this season.
CARDINALS: Have allowed at least one rushing touchdown to a running back in each of their past three games, giving up 4.1 yards per rush on the season (3.5 in the past three, weighted down by the Browns' sloppy rush effort in Week 9). And in their past three games, the Cardinals have seen a league-high 31.3 running back rushes per game. That last stat specifically sold me on Singletary -- the door is open for him to get over 20 touches again.
Hopkins' target volume is fantastic, but it's not enough to make up for the significant shortcomings Levis has shown in the past two weeks. That overshadows everything from Jacksonville's up-and-down pass defense to the Jaguars' pass-run desires to Hopkins' own game not being exactly what it was earlier this season. I'd rather start Chris Godwin, Rashee Rice and Tyler Lockett in any format.
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LAST WEEK: Not much went right for Hopkins, who saw one first-half target against a Bucs pass defense that had been ripped the week before by the Texans. Will Levis was under siege in the first half (sacked three times on 16 drop backs) and then struggled to bring the Titans back in the second half as he had to deal with pressure on top of dropped passes from other Titans. He threw Hopkins' way eight times in the last 18 minutes of game clock, completing two of them. In the two weeks since Levis' breakout game, Hopkins has had 20 targets go his way, but result in just seven catches for 87 yards and no touchdowns.
FILM: Earlier this year Hopkins looked spry and was beating coverage. The Buccaneers did a good job keeping up with Hopkins not just in terms of his speed but also his physicality, and it made a difference of a couple of incompletions that Hopkins could have otherwise caught. There was one deep target that saw Hopkins jostle with poorly-PFF-graded cornerback Zyon McCollum on and Hopkins couldn't speed up in time to reel in the ball from Levis. It's a little frustrating to see Hopkins not get in sync with Levis, nor see Hopkins whip his coverage and get open like he did against Atlanta.
JAGUARS: In their past four games this secondary has held outside receivers like Hopkins to 11.2 yards per catch (fifth-best in that span) and 3.32 YAC/reception (eighth-best). The four receiving scores allowed to perimeter receivers in those four games is sixth-most, though, boosted by three red-zone touchdowns -- one on a lucky catch by Brandon Aiyuk last week and two more in coverage by Montaric Brown, who isn't expected to play much with cornerback Tyson Campbell back on the field for Jacksonville.
RED ZONE: Levis' woes in short range have been an issue. Even if you include the Falcons game, Levis has completed 2 of 9 passes in the red zone with the one touchdown to Hopkins (which Levis threw behind him). A drop by Chig Okonkwo last week would have resulted in a second score, but otherwise it's been a bloodbath for Levis on the 12 (only 12) red-zone plays he's had in the past three games.
Meyers' best bet to help your Fantasy team is to score, which he did by the grace of Wink Martindale's defense two weeks ago when they were totally inept. But banking on that isn't a slam-dunk, especially since we already have a sample of games where O'Connell hasn't leaned on Meyers very much. If we view Meyers as a touchdown-or-bust receiver then chances are you can find someone who is safer to start. That's where I'd lean since there's no guarantee he'll get even five receptions. I'd rather buy into the upside of Marquise Brown, Brandin Cooks or Jordan Addison.
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LAST WEEK: Notched a cool 8.0% target share from Aidan O'Connell (two targets) as the Raiders squeezed past the Jets with a heavy dose of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. Meyers now has five or fewer targets in three straight games.
ROLE: After playing nearly half of his snaps in the slot in Week 9, Meyers played out wide on 77% of his snaps in Week 10, giving him a big dose of matchups against studly Jets cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. Hunter Renfrow and rookie tight end Michael Mayers played a good dose of slot snaps.
TARGET SHARE: On pass plays with Aidan O'Connell this season, Meyers has a 13% target share with only one game with more than a 20% share (Week 9, when he had five targets). Not surprisingly, Davante Adams has a 33% target share from O'Connell.
DOLPHINS: Typically this season it has been high-volume receivers who have put up big numbers on them (A.J. Brown, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are examples). But in the two games since Jalen Ramsey's return (vs. the Patriots, vs. Kansas City in Germany), the Dolphins have allowed just 8.8 yards per catch to receivers with three touchdowns, none allowed by Jalen Ramsey or quality cornerback Xavien Howard. They've seen a low ADOT from receivers in those games -- only two completions of 15-plus Air Yards have been allowed.
TOUCHDOWNS: The last six touchdowns the Dolphins have allowed, to any position, have basically been on screens and variations of screens where the pass-catcher hustles to the end zone against a defense that's out of position. Not one of the throws traveled any more than 11 yards. It's kind of a problem.
MEYERS: Of his 11 red-zone targets this year, seven have been caught within seven yards of the line of scrimmage with four resulting in touchdowns. They're precisely the kind of passes the Dolphins have struggled with containing lately.
GAME SCRIPT: More importantly, the Dolphins figure to put up a bunch of points on offense, forcing the Raiders to throw more than they did in Week 8 (25 attempts) or 9 (27 attempts). Teams have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Dolphins this season.
We've been rolling with Howell week after week because of his expected passing volume, but this is a matchup where he may not have to throw very much. In fact it would take the Giants offense putting up some points for Howell to have to throw more than, say, 32 passes against them. It should mean a big week for the Commanders run game and the Commanders DST. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect the same kind of upside for Howell as usual and should consider sitting him for Joshua Dobbs, Kyler Murray, Justin Fields and Jordan Love.
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LAST WEEK: The Seahawks unleashed pass rush pressure on 46.8% of Howell's dropbacks and the quarterback still came up with 312 yards passing and three touchdowns. One of his touchdowns was pretty fortuitous: Howell escaped a sack and threw on the run short to Brian Robinson, who took the ball to the house from 51 yards out. The other two throws were pretty great -- a deep lob to Antonio Gibson on a modified out route from 19 yards and a sensational tight-window pass to Dyami Brown, who raced about 20 yards for a score. Howell's stat line was even more improbable when you consider Terry McLaurin (4-33-0) and Jahan Dotson (two targets no catches) did very little to help out. Robinson and Gibson combined for 161 yards receiving.
HOWELL: Has 21-plus Fantasy points in 6 of his past 9 games and 19.7 points in one of the three he struggled in. He has at least 40 pass attempts in four straight games and six of his past seven.
WEEK 7: Howell was thoroughly harassed by the Giants' pass rush, blitzed on 63.3% of his dropbacks, pressured on 40.8% and sacked six times. He completed just 22 of 42 passes for 249 yards and an interception with an off-target rate of 16.7%.
SINCE THEN: Howell has dealt much better with pass rush pressure. Despite seeing a 37.9% pressure rate, Howell has been sacked just seven times over three games against the Eagles, Patriots and Seahawks. His Fantasy production has been great (at least 19 Fantasy points per game, two with 30-plus Fantasy points).
GIANTS: Meanwhile, they've traded defensive tackle Leonard Williams and have seen injuries decimate them on both sides of the ball. Jets quarterback Zach Wilson and Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell didn't have to do much to upend the Giants, but Dak Prescott crushed them for 45 Fantasy points last week, partially because the Cowboys couldn't effectively run on them. New York's offense has tallied 17 or fewer points in eight straight games including 23 points in two games since Daniel Jones hurt his neck.
COMMANDERS: Have scored 20 or more points in every game in their past six except one -- Week 7 at the Giants when they scored seven. They may only need to score 20 to beat New York.
The Bucs figure to fall into a pass-heavy game script which should in turn help Godwin pick up more targets and catches than he's had over his past couple of games. An outing with 12 or more PPR points doesn't seem like too much to ask for and puts him squarely in the mix of other flex receivers in reception-based leagues. I'd start him over DeAndre Hopkins, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley, but I'd rather start Tyler Boyd, Diontae Johnson and Rashee Rice. In non-PPR he's much less desirable.
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LAST WEEK: Had a great start against the Titans complete with a 28.6% target share through the first half. Then Mike Evans went nuclear in the third quarter while Godwin saw two targets and both did next to nothing in the final quarter of what amounted to a blowout Bucs win. It was Godwin's second-straight game with single-digit PPR Fantasy points.
FILM: Godwin is still a tremendous route-runner, and not one that clings to the line of scrimmage. He definitely has been used much more out wide than in the slot, but he and Baker Mayfield had some good synergy last week on a couple of long throws. There just weren't enough of them, partially because the Bucs didn't need to throw a ton.
GODWIN: It's not by a lot but his ADOT, receiving average and explosive catch rate have declined over his past four games compared to his first five. Perhaps most notably of all, Godwin has gone from 5.4 catches per game in Weeks 1 through 6 to 4.3 catches per game in Weeks 7 through 10. This is all on top of the fact that Godwin has caught just one touchdown all year.
49ERS: The Buccaneers will probably need to throw a ton against a 49ers defense that looked much improved at Jacksonville. The addition of Chase Young made the Niners pass rush very dangerous without having to blitz much. That will mean Mayfield will not have a lot of time to look downfield and will settle for shorter routes.
ADOT: Mayfield's passing ADOT has been under 8.0 in five games against the Vikings, Bears, Saints, Falcons and Bills. Godwin has just five games this year with seven or more targets, four of them came in those low-ADOT games, and he was good for 12-plus PPR points in three of those five, though that includes the Saints matchup Evans left early in.
49ERS: Allowed a 100% catch rate to outside receivers last week, 79% in their past three games and 73% over the course of the season. And after keeping outside receivers under wraps for the first five weeks of the season, the Niners have given up 14.8 yards per catch to them in their past four. This figures to be good news for Godwin, especially if he keeps seeing short and intermediate targets.
The Bills may have changed offensive playcallers, but this offense still figures to revolve heavily around Josh Allen. Maybe they use Cook more in the passing game as a wrinkle, but that shouldn't be expected. What should be expected, unfortunately, is for Cook to keep getting help in how the division of labor is split among running backs, making it tough to expect him to find the end zone. And the matchup shouldn't be trusted for Cook to hit 100 total yards. You could have flex-pectations for Cook and start him over Darrell Henderson, the Bears RBs and the Panthers RBs without much worry, but guys like Gus Edwards, Jaylen Warren, Isiah Pacheco and even Ty Chandler feel like easier starts in PPR.
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LAST WEEK: Ran really well against a weak Broncos run defense but got the ball ripped away from him in the first quarter and got stripped of the ball again in the fourth quarter (he recovered the second fumble). He totaled 120 scrimmage yards but continued his trend of not playing much inside the 10-yard line nor getting a high dose of targets.
THIS WEEK: The Bills replaced offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey with Joe Brady, a move that doesn't really make much sense on the surface. Coach Sean McDermott explained that he wanted to see his offense come out with more energy and play with more consistency, but Josh Allen didn't sound very optimistic about the move when he spoke to the media. It bears mentioning that Brady was fired by the Panthers in 2022 because he didn't run the ball enough.
COOK: Leads the Bills with 120 carries and certainly has the dreamy efficiency as a runner (5.1) and receiver (9.3) that anyone would like. But he's seen just three touches inside the 5-yard line this season with one touchdown while Latavius Murray has had 12 touches inside the 5 with three touchdowns. Murray also has played more third-down snaps than Cook and has nearly three times as many touches on third downs (17) as Cook does (six).
JETS: Have given up 12 or more PPR points to each of the past six running backs they've seen and 17-plus PPR to four of those six. There's a catch, however: Four of those six backs have been no-doubt-about-it studs (D'Andre Swift, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler and Josh Jacobs), another one broke a long touchdown run (Isiah Pacheco) and the last one broke a long touchdown catch (Jaleel McLaughlin). Pacheco's touchdown is the only rushing score they've allowed that's come from outside of five yards from the goal line (Austin Ekeler has the other two). In three games since the bye against the Giants, Chargers and Jets (some real good running backs in there), the Jets have allowed 3.8 yards per rush.
Motivated to stick around in this league and coming off of a bye with fresh legs, the situation isn't too bad for Henderson, but his upside for a big game is definitely limited. At best he's a low-end RB2 you could start in a pinch or flex in a non- or half-PPR league. I'd rather start Ty Chandler, Jerome Ford and James Cook.
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HENDERSON: Since re-signing with the Rams has played around 55% of the team's snaps over three games, averaging 13.3 carries, 2.0 receptions and 62.0 total yards. He's essentially been in a workload split with Royce Freeman with an obvious difference in his role in the passing game. He's also been the better pass protector of the two. However, Henderson has 13 or fewer PPR points in each of those three outings.
NEXT WEEK: Kyren Williams is expected back from Injured Reserve and should assume the role of the Rams' primary running back. Henderson may wind up sticking around but could be relegated to a much smaller role.
THIS WEEK: The Rams offensive line could actually be in decent shape with right tackle Rob Havenstein expected back. He has graded out as the Rams' top run blocker on Pro Football Focus and should help Henderson. It'll be essential for the Rams to have a rushing presence this week so they don't have to risk Matthew Stafford throwing 40 times and hurting his thumb again.
PASSING GAME: Henderson has seven targets in his past three games, which doesn't sound like a whole lot but it's six more than Royce Freeman. He seems to have more trust in the pass game.
SEAHAWKS: Everyone's going to point to last week's game and say they can't stop running backs through the air. The truth? Seattle ranked top-10 in catch rate and top-5 in YAC/reception allowed to running backs with a better-than-league average 6.8 yards per catch given up going into Week 10. Now those numbers are blown to smithereens because Brian Robinson was in the right place at the right time and Antonio Gibson made a heck of a grab on a downfield route last week. I'm not ready to say the Seahawks are terrible against running backs through the air ... but the 5.5 yards per carry they've given up to running backs with four touchdowns (three to Baltimore) in their past four games is pretty telling, especially since they made a trade meant to bolster their run defense two weeks ago.
Dobbs is still considered a reliable starter, but he's not without flaws. The Broncos pass defense is definitely good, and they now have seven quarters of game film to study how the Vikings are rolling with Dobbs. But Dobbs has been playing lights-out and benefits from a savvy playcaller and a good offensive line. If Justin Jefferson plays then I can't see benching Dobbs, but even if Jefferson doesn't play I'd roll with Dobbs over Justin Fields, Sam Howell, Russell Wilson and Trevor Lawrence. He has more potential than they do.
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LAST WEEK: Dobbs kept the momentum going with another quality stat line against a better defense in the Saints. He completed 67.6% of his throws for 8.4 yards per attempt with a touchdown, adding 44 yards and a rushing touchdown with it. He now has at least 27 Fantasy points in each game with the Vikings, and at least 26 Fantasy points in five games this season.
VIKINGS: Might be without primary running back Alexander Mattison this week, putting Ty Chandler on the field as their lead back. Chandler has essentially been the team's No. 3 rusher all season, and while he has some talent, the team may not be willing to ride him as much as they would normally with Mattison. It's definitely worth noting that since Dobbs went under center for Minnesota in Week 9, they've been much more run-heavy, calling designed runs on 46.9% of their plays. Before Dobbs arrived, the Vikings ran the ball on 33.1% of their plays.
DOBBS: Has been better statistically with Minnesota that he was with Arizona. The biggest difference? His off-target rate was 16.2% with the Cardinals, and now it's 6.3% with the Vikings. Part of that has been Dobbs not throwing downfield as much -- his ADOT is a full yard lower in Minnesota and his deep pass attempt rate is 4.7% compared to 12.0% with Arizona. Justin Jefferson's eventual return might change that.
BRONCOS: Once considered a laughingstock of a pass defense, the Broncos have been getting a good pass rush thanks to the return of Baron Browning, and the secondary has been better since they benched cornerback Damarri Mathis. The turn began in Week 7 -- since then the Broncos have held Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to 19 or fewer Fantasy points each -- and Love had the most with 19! In those three games, against those three aggressive quarterbacks, Denver has allowed just 6.5 yards per attempt and three passing touchdowns with five interceptions. This is no longer an easy matchup.
RUSHING: Dobbs' equalizer is his legs, which he's taken the liberty of using frequently with the Vikings. Be it by design or by happenstance, Dobbs has averaged 7.5 rush attempts per game and has 7.3 yards per carry to go with it. With an average of 55 rush yards, Dobbs has the desirable floor to make up for any shortcomings he has as a passer. The best part? This is far from a new thing for Dobbs, who has at least six rush attempts in 7 of his past 8 games overall with 4.0 yards per carry or more in those games (several with 6.0 yards per rush).
BRONCOS: The numbers say Denver looks good against running quarterbacks -- no one has had more than 31 yards on the ground against them -- but the reality is that they've seen QBs average 4.5 yards per rush against them, which is worse than league average. And the secret stat? Denver has given up 2.86 yards before contact per rush to quarterbacks on the year, a bottom-five ranking. It should mean Dobbs will have ample room to run when (not if) he so chooses.
Smith has a tough matchup, but he also has a picture-perfect scenario for Fantasy managers to trust. He should see a good dose of targets with Dallas Goedert off the field, and he'll see them in what should be a high-scoring game. That should be enough to overlook the matchup and consider Smith a must-start Fantasy receiver ahead of Puka Nacua, Tank Dell, D.J. Moore and any Jaguars receiver.
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LAST TWO GAMES: Smith has bounced back statistically thanks to some touchdown production. He scored in a favorable matchup at Washington then again in a tough matchup versus Dallas. But he had a much smaller target share against Dallas (14.3%) than Washington (20%). He also saw his role fluctuate as he ran way more routes downfield against Dallas than Washington.
GOEDERT: The Eagles lost their burly tight end in the second half of their Week 9 game versus Dallas. He is expected to miss several weeks. The Eagles do not have another tight end on the roster who figures to seamlessly replace him, so the division of labor should be split among their other players.
LAST YEAR: In four games without Goedert last year, Smith averaged 8.3 targets and 16.3 PPR points per game with at least 17 PPR points in three games (he had one stinker). He then finished the regular season strong with two monster games (25-plus PPR) even when Goedert returned.
HISTORY: Smith turned a game-high nine targets into seven receptions and 100 yards against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year. And for whatever it's worth, Smith also had seven catches for 122 yards from Jalen Hurts in a 2021 showdown.
CHIEFS: Have turned into a tough matchup for receivers -- only one has posted 15-plus PPR points in their past four games, and it was Josh Palmer (not a Dolphins WR, not Keenan Allen, not Courtland Sutton). Not only do they allow a low completion rate to all receivers (54.9%), but they're top-10 in the NFL in catch rate allowed (39.7%) and YAC/reception allowed (3.7) on passes of 15-plus Air Yards.
