In just three weeks, we'll be staring down the final weekend of the 2024 Major League Baseball season. Are we going to get some down-to-the-wire division races?
Well, I have good news and bad news. The good news is we're almost assuredly going to have one close race to the end. The bad news is that very well might be the only one. Of course, it's still possible a few others get close and there's always the wild card, now with three spots in each league (here's the latest MLB playoff picture).
Let's dive in on these possible division races and examine each one last time before the home stretch kicks into overdrive.
AL East
This would be the race I mentioned that will go down to the wire. The Yankees and Orioles have been duking it out since pretty much the beginning of the season, though at this point it's more a slap fight, if even that.
The Yankees have led by as many as 4 1/2 games and have never trailed by more than three. They've also gone 30-38 since a 50-22 start. Only the Angels, Mariners and, obviously, White Sox have been worse among AL teams and 68 games isn't exactly a tiny sample.
The Orioles have led by as many as three games and have never trailed by more than 4 1.2. They haven't bottomed out nearly as much as the Yankees, but they are 24-27 since their high-water mark on July 7. The biggest crime here is not taking better advantage of the Yankees' woes. They also haven't won a series against a team currently with a winning record since the middle of June. That was against, you guessed it, the Yankees.
The Orioles lead the season series, 6-4, though the Yankees won the last series between these two teams in the middle of July. Three more games remain (Sept. 24-26) in the Bronx. The Orioles have a more difficult remaining schedule, though it's very close and neither is easy.
I wouldn't bet on either right now, but one of these two has to win it. Pick your own poison if you so choose. I had the Orioles before the season started and suggested Yankees last week. Forced to make a decision here, I'll go with the Yankees simply because that three-game series is in New York.
AL Central
The Guardians let a nine-game lead dwindle all the way down to a tie heading into Aug. 28, but they've swung things totally back in their favor and now they might run away with it. They now lead the Royals by 4 1/2 games and there are no head-to-heads left between the two teams to sweat. The now-second-place Twins trail the Guardians by four games and there are four games left between the two, so perhaps there's an opening for Minnesota?
The health of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton remaining in question is a problem, though, and the Twins have lost 11 of 17. The Guardians also have three games left against the White Sox while neither the Twins nor the Royals get to play the historically atrocious Sox.
The Guardians are taking this thing, probably comfortably.
AL West
Hopefully you futures gamblers got in on this one while the Astros were down a lot of games.
We all know the story by now. The Astros started the season 12-24. Novice baseball fans might've written them off. They were down 10 games after a loss to the pitiful White Sox on June 18. They now lead the Mariners by 4 1/2 games and Rangers by 7 1/2.
The Astros did just get swept in Cincinnati and saw their lead shrink a little from six games. The Mariners have three more games against the Astros (in Houston, Sept. 23-25), but have a much tougher schedule overall. The Astros get the Angels seven more times. I still think this one is over.
The Astros take the West.
NL East
It feels like the Phillies have been in first all year, but they actually never took the lead in this division until May 3. It's just how glorious a marathon the regular season is. The Phillies never looked back, though, once in first. The lead reached 10 games on June 11 and while it hasn't gotten higher than that, they haven't let anyone closer than five games.
Right now, the lead is eight games over both the Braves and Mets, who are tied for the third wild-card spot together.
If anyone is looking for a longshot play, it might well be the Mets. Sure, they are eight games out, but there are seven games remaining between the Mets and Phillies. The Mets turned things on with a win on June 2. Who knew how hot they'd get? They have the best record in baseball since (52-29). They've outplayed the Phillies by 8.5 games in that span. Of course, they need to outplay them in similar fashion now in roughly three weeks instead of three months. The seven head to heads would help, of course, if they could go nuts and win all seven.
The smart money, however, is on the Phillies holding this one rather easily.
That's where I am. The Phillies cruise.
NL Central
Since April 10, the Brewers have had at least a share of first place all but one day (they were a half-game out on April 29). They've built a lead as high as 11 1/2 games. It is a nine-game lead right now over the Cubs, who are better served to focus on making a miracle wild-card run. Ditto for the Cardinals, who are 10 games out here.
The Brewers don't have any games left against the Cubs or Cardinals, not that it would matter. This thing is over. In fact, we don't have the odds listed because the division isn't listed at several online sportsbooks.
Brewers by a mile.
NL West
- Dodgers -4000
- Padres +1400
- Diamondbacks +2800
The Dodgers won the first game of the season back on March 20 in South Korea. Though they lost the second game to fall into a tie atop the NL West and were tied for first the next four games, they haven't trailed anyone all year in the NL West. The lead has grown to nine games, but it fell to two multiple times in August with both the Padres and Diamondback hot on their trail.
The Dodgers stepped up, though, despite a pitching staff totally in shambles. From Aug. 18-Sept. 3, the Dodgers won 12 of 15 games to push that two-game lead back up into somewhat-comfortable territory. It's now five over the Padres and 5 1/2 over the D-backs.
Also, judging by opponent winning percentage, the Dodgers have the easiest remaining schedule in baseball among contenders. They have six games against the Rockies and three against the Marlins. They do have three remaining against the Padres (zero vs. D-backs), so it's possible there's a San Diego-sized opening there, but the overwhelming likelihood now is the Dodgers wrap this up before the last week.
