Since Day 1 of his rookie year in 2019, erstwhile New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso has been one of the most productive power hitters in the game. Only Aaron Judge has hit more home runs since 2019 and only Marcus Semien has played more games. Alonso is very productive and very durable. He's also a free agent for the first time in his career.
"I love this team. I love this organization. This fan base has treated not just myself, but my family so, so well. Right now, I'm just thinking of the group," Alonso said after the Mets were eliminated in the NLCS (via MLB.com). "We'll see what happens (in free agency). We'll cross that bridge when we get there. But I love New York. I love this team. I love playing in Queens. This group is really special, and the memories that we've created together are just, wow. This is why we play baseball."
Alonso turns 30 in December and he's coming off a 2024 season that saw him hit .240/.329/.459 with 34 home runs, and go to his third consecutive All-Star Game. Our R.J. Anderson ranked him as the tenth-best free agent available this offseason, and the best available first baseman. Six years into his career, Alonso has averaged 43 homers and 3.8 WAR per 162 games.
That all said, there are reasons to believe Alonso will not get a massive long-term contract this offseason. To be sure, he will be paid handsomely, but if Alonso and agent Scott Boras are looking to reset the first-base market, they are likely to be disappointed. Here are four reasons Alonso could get less this offseason than the first six years of his career may lead you to believe.
1. He's coming off his worst season
Those 34 home runs Alonso hit in 2024? That's his lowest total in a 162-game season, as is his .459 slugging percentage. Prior to 2024, Alonso had never slugged under .504 in a 162-game season, so it's not a small decline in slugging ability. He's a slugging first baseman. This is how Alonso makes his money and provides value to his team, and his slugging slipped.
We're going to ignore 2020 because it was a bizarre, shortened season, and I don't hold anyone's performance that year against them. Here are Alonso's contact quality numbers in the five 162-game seasons of his career:
| Strikeout rate | Ground ball rate | Expected SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 26.4% | 40.5% | .551 |
2021 | 19.9% | 38.8% | .542 |
2022 | 18.7% | 36.2% | .486 |
2023 | 22.9% | 36.6% | .527 |
2024 | 24.7% | 42.1% | .470 |
Statcast's expecting slugging percentage (xSLG) is based on exit velocity and launch angle, and it tells us that Alonso's career low home run total was not a fluke. The contact he made in 2024 was less conducive to home runs. His strikeout and ground-ball rates were way up too, and strikeouts and grounders don't go for home runs. There are red flags with Alonso's core skills.
Teams are better at projecting future performance and valuing future performance over past performance than ever, though past performance does inform their future projections to some extent. Analytical models will say Alonso will play his next contract in his 30s and he's already showing signs of slipping from a top-tier power hitter to merely a very good one. That will all be baked into the cake when contract offers are sent his way.
2. He's a right/right first baseman
Meaning right-handed hitting and right-handed throwing, which is a profile with a less-than-kind aging curve. As a hitter, you're on the light side of the platoon, and as a defender, you have to turn to start the 3-6-3 double play rather than being able to throw across your body. In the Expansion Era (since 1961), only 16 right/right first base/DH guys amassed even 10 WAR after their 30th birthday.
History is not on Alonso's side. Among right/right players, similarity scores have guys like Cecil Fielder and Richie Sexson as most similar to Alonso through the age-29 season, and those two were done as elite power hitters by time they were 32. Mark McGwire is also comparable to Alonso through age 29, though he admitted to using performance-enhancing drugs, so his 30s were tainted and don't help us understand what is coming for Alonso. Regardless, the right/right first base/DH profile is rough. Those guys tend to age poorly.
3. First basemen don't get paid big anymore
It has been more than 10 years since a first baseman signed a $200 million contract. Not since Miguel Cabrera's 10-year, $292 million extension with the Tigers in 2014. Only four first basemen have gotten even $130 million since the Orioles gave Chris Davis seven years and $161 million in January 2016:
| Signed | Years | Dollars | |
|---|---|---|---|
March 2022 | 8 | $168 million | |
March 2022 | 6 | $162 million | |
Feb. 2018 | 8 | $144 million | |
March 2019 | 5 | $130 million |
Goldschmidt and Olson signed extensions before hitting free agency and Olson signed his contract two weeks after his 28th birthday. Alonso turns 30 next month. Goldschmidt signed his deal soon after turning 31 and, at worst, he was a comparable player to Alonso through age 29. Goldschmidt really was better though -- 34.4 WAR vs. 19.8 WAR through age 29 -- because he was was a far superior defender and baserunner.
Alonso is very good but he is not Freeman. Freddie's going to Hall of Fame and that was true before he had a historically great World Series last month. The Hosmer deal was doomed from the start. He never hit for the kind of power needed to justify that contract, and the Padres regretted it from Day 1. Point is, those are the largest first-base contracts since 2016. These guys do not get paid like they did once upon a time. The market is unkind to even the most productive players at the position.
4. Few big spenders need a first baseman (or DH)
Think about it. The Dodgers need neither a first baseman (Freeman) nor a DH (Shohei Ohtani). The Phillies are set too (Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber), as are the Braves (Olson and Marcell Ozuna). The Yankees have a DH (Giancarlo Stanton) but not a first baseman, and Juan Soto will be their priority. The Red Sox are set at first base (Triston Casas) and DH (Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, etc.). If the Blue Jays spend big on a first baseman, it'll be to retain Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
With the caveat that surprising teams enter the mix every offseason, Alonso's market in the early days of the offseason appears to include the Astros, the Mets, maybe the Giants, maybe the Mariners, and that's probably it? Teams like the Rangers and Twins (and Diamondbacks) could make sense, though they're caught up in the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy, and probably won't increase payroll in a way that is needed to afford Alonso. Alonso can't move to a new position on the field either. He is what he is, and it limits his market.
Furthermore, there is another pretty good free-agent first baseman available this offseason: Christian Walker. Walker's offensive production the last few years is very similar to Alonso's and he's a much better defender (he might be the best defensive first baseman in the game). Walker turns 34 in March, so he's several years older than Alonso, which just means the contract offers will be smaller. Teams could view Walker on a 2-3 year deal as much more desirable than Alonso on whatever Boras wants.
Again, the market shifts throughout the winter and things can (and will change) over the next few weeks, but right now, there don't appear to be many big spenders in the market for a first baseman. And chances are one of those teams is going to sign Walker too, taking a potential landing spot away from Alonso. Alonso's a really good player who has had success in a big market. At the same time, market forces suggest his free agency might be chilly, and not reward him with a big deal.
