The Major League Baseball season, entering Friday, Sept. 13, has 17 days remaining. We've still got a few really close playoff races (AL East, NL wild card, seeding, etc.), but there are a good number of teams officially eliminated from playoff contention. What about the teams in limbo, though? That is to say, they are still technically alive but need a lot of help to make the postseason?
I often talk about The Shawshank Redemption and the concept of "hope" being a good thing, as Andy taught Red. There's also -- on the totally opposite end of the spectrum -- the Dumb and Dumber, "so you're telling me there's a chance!" meme. What do we get at the intersection of Shawshank and Dumb? An impossibility, in all likelihood, but let's embrace the potential chaos nonetheless.
Right now, according to SportsLine, we've got four playoff contenders with a more than 1% chance yet less than 10% chance to make the playoffs. It's a total longshot, but some extreme results this weekend could make a run realistic.
Here they are along with what they need to happen this weekend before daring to dream.
Detroit Tigers
Playoff chances: 8.2%
Losing at home to the Rockies on Thursday was not advisable. The Tigers had won 20 of 28 before then to make themselves relevant despite being sellers at the trade deadline. That one hurt, but it's time to move forward.
First things first, and we'll say this about every single team listed, obviously, what the Tigers need most this weekend is a sweep. They've got three games against the Orioles, so it's a tall order, but this exercise is all about hope. If they do that and the Reds sweep the Twins, the Tigers are just 0.5 games behind the final AL wild-card spot. Even 2/3 of the way on either series (for example: Reds take two of three and the Tigers sweep), but not both, makes this a 1.5-game deficit for the Tigers and that's workable.
Of note: The Twins have to visit the Guardians to four games starting on Monday. The Tigers just might have an opening here, but this weekend has to go swimmingly.
Finally, it couldn't hurt to have the Mariners and Red Sox each drop at least a game to give the Tigers some more breathing room, though it's not 100% required.
Best-case scenario: Tigers sweep Orioles; Reds sweep Twins; Mariners and Red Sox lose at least one.
Seattle Mariners
Playoff chances: 6.4%
The Mariners are down 4.5 games in both the wild-card race and the AL West, so they have multiple avenues of pursuit here.
It all has to start with Mariners wins, though. They lost on Thursday night, but have three more games against the Rangers and need to win all three. It is imperative at this point with no margin for error.
From there, the aforementioned Reds can help by sweeping the Twins. That would get the Mariners within 1.5 games of the last wild-card spot. They also could use an Orioles series win over the Tigers -- a sweep is ideal -- and the Red Sox to lose at least once, as the three teams are separated by just a game.
Of course, the AL West title would be preferable to the last wild-card spot, so the Mariners could use some help from the Angels, too, who host the Astros for three games.
The most desirable outcome for the Mariners, obviously, would be everything breaking right so they'd have both the wild card and division in play with two weeks to go.
Best-case scenario: Mariners win three; Angels sweep Astros; Reds sweep Twins; Orioles sweep Tigers; Red Sox lose at least one
Boston Red Sox
Playoff chances: 4.3%
The Red Sox lost their first game in the Bronx on Thursday, so they'll be looking to take three of four from the Yankees by winning Friday-Sunday. Some help from the Rangers wouldn't hurt, just to knock the Mariners behind the Red Sox (the two teams are currently tied). The main items of interest are losses by the Twins (most important) and Tigers.
Let's say the Red Sox win three straight while the Twins and Tigers get swept. That would leave the Red Sox just 1.5 games out and ahead of the rest of the outside-looking-in hopefuls. That's definitely workable in two weeks, especially since -- you ready for this? -- the Red Sox host the Twins for a three-game series Sept. 20-22.
Best-case scenario: Red Sox win three; Reds sweep Twins; Orioles sweep Tigers; Mariners lose at least one
Chicago Cubs
Playoff chances: 2.3%
They actually were six outs away from being 2.5 games back on Labor Day and blew that game. They now sit five games out of the final NL wild-card spot, held by the Mets, with the Braves in between. It's too bad it isn't closer, because the schedule sets up really nicely for the Cubs. They play three in Colorado before returning home to host the A's for three games and Nationals for four.
This weekend, the Cubs need help from two first-place teams. The Braves host the Dodgers for four games (it bleeds through Monday, but we'll just discuss the three weekend games for now) while the Phillies host the Mets for three.
It's unlikely, but not off-the-charts ridiculous, to envision the Cubs sweeping the Rockies while the Mets get swept and the Braves lose three. Such a scenario would have the Cubs within two games of a playoff spot come Monday, only trailing the Braves by a game. The Braves and Mets have a three-game series left against one another, too, but let's not get ahead of ourselves here. It's a five-game deficit with another team four games ahead right now.
Also, this has to remain a consideration: The Cardinals are only one game behind the Cubs and have the tiebreaker by virtue of winning the season series, seven games to six. The Cards are in Toronto for a bird bout and the Cubs could sure stand to see a Blue Jays win or two for some clarity.
Best-case scenario: Cubs sweep Rockies; Phillies sweep Mets; Dodgers beat Braves three times; Cardinals lose at least once
