Wilson's 2026 NFL mock draft 5.0: Steelers reset at QB after Mike Tomlin's exit; Chiefs snag Caleb Downs
Fernando Mendoza sits atop the board as QB decisions and team needs shape Round 1
By
Ryan Wilson
•
1 min read
At this point, Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is the leader in the clubhouse to be the No. 1 overall pick -- and it feels like by a sizeable margin. The real intrigue, it feels like, is what Oregon quarterback Dante Moore will do: will he declare for the draft after just one season as the starter in Eugene, or will he return to school in 2026?
This decision will have ramifications at the top of the draft board, where the Jets now find themselves picking No. 2 overall and in desperate need of a franchise quarterback.
Another potentially interesting development to monitor: Alabama's Ty Simpson has already declared for the draft, and the question becomes: Given how uneven he played over the final month of the college season (in part, it turns out, because he was injured), how far into Round 1 will he have to wait to hear his name called? In this latest mock draft, I had him landing in Pittsburgh, a team with suddenly even bigger questions than who will be their next quarterback, now that Mike Tomlin has stepped down as head coach.
Beyond the quarterbacks, the top 10 is bolstered by game-changing defensive talent. Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese is a versatile "chess piece," while more "traditional" pass rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and David Bailey continue to make their case as two of the best players in the entire class.
OK, let's get to all 32 picks.
Note: This is the current NFL Draft order after the wild card round (via Tankathon).
NFL Mock Draft
Round 1
Round 1 - Pick 1
Mendoza is a poised, accurate passer who has plus arm talent, consistently delivering catchable balls on time and in rhythm and excelling on layered second-level routes. He shows NFL-level field vision and coverage recognition, consistently ripping throws with anticipation. While not a true creator, Mendoza navigates collapsing pockets effectively and can make accurate off-platform throws, showing a calm, efficient style reminiscent of Jared Goff.
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Round 1 - Pick 2
Moore is a composed, confident pocket passer who thrives under pressure, consistently working through progressions and delivering accurate, tight-window throws with anticipation. He's highly effective when moving the launch point, showing the arm strength and touch to attack every level of the field -- often off-platform. While not a true dual-threat, Moore's poise, vision and athleticism allow him to extend plays and create when protection breaks down, and he repeatedly shows up in big moments.
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Round 1 - Pick 3
Woods is a powerful, explosive interior defensive lineman who consistently wins at the point of attack with violent hands, low pad level and exceptional strength. He's immovable against the run -- stacking, shedding and disrupting plays in the backfield while maintaining gap integrity -- and can overwhelm interior blockers. Though not reliant on a deep move set, Woods' athleticism, effort and persistence allow him to collapse pockets and create chaos from multiple alignments.
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Round 1 - Pick 4
An explosive, high-motor LB with a versatile skill set that includes elite closing speed vs. both the run and the pass. He is a terror coming downhill, showcasing his strength and athleticism to shoot gaps, shed blocks and collapse the pocket. Reese is a wrap-up tackling machine who consistently plays with an aggressive edge and the versatility to line up across the front seven. One of the biggest risers over the first month of the college season.
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Round 1 - Pick 5
Tate is a long strider with a big catch radius and reliable hands who makes contested catches downfield look easy. He flashes quickness and short-area agility to create separation at the top of his route and has the ability to make defenders miss after the catch. His ball-tracking, route-running and ability to operate in space make him a Day 1 impact player at the next level.
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Round 1 - Pick 6
Road grader/earth mover in the run game with enormous size and insane athleticism for that size. He plays with an edge and is better vs. the run than in pass protection right now but well above average in both departments. He could play right tackle or kick inside to guard.
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Round 1 - Pick 7
Bain Jr. is an explosive, violent edge rusher with rare power and bend, capable of turning the corner from wide alignments and overwhelming tackles with speed-to-power. He wins with a deep arsenal of pass-rush moves -- from bull rushes to inside counters -- and plays with exceptional contact balance and hand usage to shed blocks both as a rusher and run defender. Relentlessly disruptive and highly explosive off the snap, Bain consistently collapses pockets, sets a firm edge and makes impact plays from whistle to whistle.
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Round 1 - Pick 8
Love has legit track speed and high-end acceleration. He can stop on a dime and redirect with rare change-of-direction ability, while playing with good contact balance and the footwork to jump-cut to avoid defenders before hitting the crease.
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Round 1 - Pick 9
Downs could be a Troy Polamalu-level talent in the NFL. He's only 5-foot-11, and he may not end up running a 4.35-second 40-yard dash, but I don't care. Not even a little bit. Both Kyle Hamilton and Brian Branch slipped on draft day because of mediocre 40 times. They're two of the best young defensive backs in football. Downs is a run-game enforcer and has the sideline-to-sideline juice, coupled with the short-area burst, to excel in pass coverage.
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Round 1 - Pick 10
Bailey brings a mix of power and athleticism off the edge, pairing a strong long-arm move and a nasty bull rush with the burst to win around the corner. At 247 pounds, he's lighter than some, but his strength, motor and variety of pass-rush moves make him a constant problem for tackles who don't anchor well.
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Round 1 - Pick 11
Proctor is a massive, athletic LT with impressive balance and the ability to move effectively in space, making him a first-round talent in both pass protection and perimeter run schemes. When locked in, he can dominate defensive linemen in the run game and neutralize elite edge rushers in pass protection. While his weight, footwork and consistency can be an issue at times, his size, athleticism and upside make him a potential top-tier tackle when fully focused.
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Round 1 - Pick 12
Fano is an athletic, technically sound right tackle who plays with a strong base, quick feet and excellent balance in pass protection. He consistently mirrors speed rushers, handles stunts with patience and control and redirects smoothly against bendy edge defenders. While not an overpowering mauler, he anchors effectively and rarely gets knocked off his spot. In the run game, Fano thrives in wide-zone schemes, using his mobility to reach the second level and finish blocks.
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From
Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 - Pick 13
A savvy, instinctive CB who excels in both off coverage and press man schemes, Delane is consistently in the WRs' back pocket on intermediate and vertical routes. He has a good understanding of route combinations, will drive on balls in front of him and is a reliable tackler in space.
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Round 1 - Pick 14
First, Faulk just turned 20 years old in September. Second, he's unofficially 6-foot-6 and 288 pounds, and he is already near-elite as a run defender. The power and athleticism with which he plays make it an easy projection to see him as a dominant pass rusher down the road. Maybe it doesn't happen until, say, Year 2 in the league, but when it all comes together, it's going to be scary.
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Round 1 - Pick 15
Cisse is a versatile corner who can consistently lock down receivers in press-man coverage and showcases elite athleticism, with explosive downhill speed and next-level change-of-direction ability. Whether he's driving on quick routes from off coverage or playing in press, he's consistently in position for pass breakup opportunities. He's also one of the best run-defending CBs in this entire class.
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Round 1 - Pick 16
A big, physical WR with a massive catch radius, contested-catch ability and the speed to separate quickly and hit top-end velocity in 2-3 steps. Boston is an effective route runner at all three levels, will run through arm tackles in space, and can outmuscle defenders in the red zone. While primarily an outside threat, his size, strength and hands make him a potential matchup problem in the slot, too. Added bonus: he's a legit threat as a punt returner.
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Round 1 - Pick 17
McCoy is a physical corner who can play man on an island and is also comfortable in zone looks. He's in phase on vertical routes, and in run support he comes downhill looking to thump someone. He's coming off a January ACL injury, and while he's yet to get back on the field, he could end up being the best CB in this class.
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Round 1 - Pick 18
Terrell has NFL bloodlines -- his brother is former first-round pick AJ Terrell. Avieon plays bigger than his listed size (see his matchup in 2024 against former Stanford WR Eric Ayomanor). He can stay in phase on vertical routes and has good ball skills and he will try to bait QBs into making throws. In run support, he plays outside CB like he's a strong safety.
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Round 1 - Pick 19
Ioane is one of the cleanest prospects in this class, excelling as an earth mover in the run game and showing the athleticism to be effective in both gap and zone schemes. In pass protection, he plays with a strong base, using a well-timed, powerful punch to neutralize the bull rush.
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From
Green Bay Packers
Round 1 - Pick 20
Styles is a fast, physical linebacker who flies downhill and makes plays all over the field. He's tough enough to take on offensive linemen in the box, athletic enough to cover ground in space and smart enough to handle multiple roles across a defense. Whether he's blitzing, filling a gap or dropping into coverage, he plays with urgency, confidence and the kind of versatility coaches love.
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Round 1 - Pick 21
Simpson is a big-armed pocket passer who plays with composure and outstanding mental processing both before and after the snap. He plays with an aggressive confidence and excels at navigating muddy pockets, throwing accurately on short and intermediate routes, and ripping tight-window throws with anticipation -- though he has been historically inconsistent on deep balls. Simpson is athletic enough to buy time with his legs to extend plays and move the sticks.
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Round 1 - Pick 22
Allen is a consistent problem for offensive linemen trying to block him because of his combination of speed, quickness and power. He has a nose for the ball, rarely takes false steps, and is a reliable, physical tackler who limits yards after contact all over the field. He can more than hold his own in coverage vs. TEs and slot receivers, and he brings juice as a blitzer, too.
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Round 1 - Pick 23
Sadiq oozes athleticism, will run through arm tackles and is used all over the formation. He can be a quick-game target as an outside WR and is used effectively on jet sweeps. He's also one of the best blocking TEs in college football who is an asset on special teams, too. He reminds me of Kadarius Toney in the quick game and Anquan Boldin in space with the ball in his hands.
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From
Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 - Pick 24
Tyson is an explosive receiver with the size, speed and catch radius to win at all three levels. A smooth hands-catcher, he consistently makes contested and high-point grabs look effortless while creating surprising separation at the top of his routes for his size. Tyson can hit top-end speed in just a few steps and shows the type of short-area quickness reserved for smaller, shiftier WRs. He's also an asset in the screen game, making him a dynamic threat both outside and from the slot.
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Round 1 - Pick 25
Parker is an explosive, high-motor edge rusher with the juice to both collapse pockets with a bull rush and the bend to win around the corner. He's stout and disciplined against the run, from setting the edge, to blowing up plays in the backfield with his quickness. He shows surprising versatility, with the athleticism to drop into coverage from wide alignments and disrupt passing lanes.
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Round 1 - Pick 26
Lemon, who also excels as a returner, is a dynamic, versatile receiver with explosive burst, top-tier route running and exceptional YAC ability, making him a threat at all three levels of the field. He excels in space and consistently creates separation with quickness, balance and body control, and has the tackle-breaking ability to turn short gains into big plays.
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Round 1 - Pick 27
Thomas wins with twitch and a relentless motor. He's explosive off the snap, bends the corner with ease and keeps coming even when the first move doesn't work, which explains his knack for turning pressures into sacks. He can beat OTs with speed or power (or both in the same rep), collapse the pocket from different alignments, and is the definition of playing with "your hair on fire." He might be undersized by typical NFL edge rusher standards, but we all said the same thing about former Sooner Nik Bonitto.
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Round 1 - Pick 28
Pregnon is an absolute mauler in the run game, possessing the strength to move defensive linemen at the point of attack and the athleticism to easily get to and handle second-level defenders -- he anchors as well as any interior offensive lineman in the class. In pass protection, a balanced base, strong hands and smooth footwork allow him to mirror and redirect rushers, and he makes it look easy.
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Round 1 - Pick 29
Concepcion is a versatile WR who uses his quickness and burst to consistently get open against man coverage, proving himself a deep threat with the speed to stack defenders. He is a natural hands-catcher who runs precise routes to all three levels and adds significant value as a dynamic punt returner with impressive YAC ability.
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Round 1 - Pick 30
There was a reason the Utes felt comfortable moving Fano to the right side and handing the left tackle job to Lomu. He has a long frame and plays with surprisingly good footwork, and while he had his struggles against Texas Tech, so did every offensive line that faced Romello Height and David Bailey. Lomu is a high-upside, athletic offensive lineman with room to keep developing.
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Round 1 - Pick 31
Banks is surprisingly explosive for his size, playing with power, juice and a nonstop motor. A foot injury early in the 2025 season has affected him and kept him on the sidelines; the injury will be worth monitoring as the draft process unfolds.
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Round 1 - Pick 32
Neal is a long-striding, physical corner who excels in vertical coverage, using his height and makeup speed to consistently stay in phase and be in position for pass breakup opportunities downfield. He's comfortable in both man and zone schemes, is a red zone asset due to his size and physicality, and his willingness to come downhill and tackle like a safety makes him a reliable run defender.
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