Guess what? You made it! After months of waiting, we have all arrived at the start of the 2024 NFL season. Gone are the days when we are stuck betting solely on baseball as we can finally sink our teeth into a full slate of football, which kicks off this Thursday between the Baltimore Ravens and defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Below, we'll get our initial glimpse of all the Week 1 matchups and get our impression on the early lines to see if there is anything they can tell us about who the oddsmakers initially see coming out on top.
Week 1 early odds
(All lines via SportsLine consensus odds; all games on Sunday unless noted)
| Game | Early line | Early total | Early moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
Ravens at Chiefs (Thursday) | Chiefs -3 | 46.5 | Ravens +129, Chiefs -155 |
Eagles -2.5 | 48.5 | Packers +123, Eagles -148 | |
Texans -2.5 | 48.5 | Texans -143, Colts +122 | |
Dolphins -3 | 49.5 | Jaguars +139, Dolphins -166 | |
Vikings -1 | 41.5 | Vikings -121, Giants +101 | |
Falcons -3 | 42.5 | Steelers +133, Falcons -157 | |
Bears -4.5 | 45.5 | Titans +167, Bears -202 | |
Bengals -8.5 | 40.5 | Patriots +330, Bengals -420 | |
Bills -6 | 48 | Cardinals +218, Bills -270 | |
Saints -4 | 41.5 | Panthers +173, Saints -207 | |
Seahawks -5.5 | 42 | Broncos +201, Seahawks -248 | |
Chargers -3 | 41 | Raiders +144, Chargers -172 | |
Browns -2.5 | 42 | Cowboys +120, Browns -142 | |
Buccaneers -3.5 | 43.5 | Commanders +147, Buccaneers -177 | |
| Rams at Lions | Lions -3.5 | 51 | Rams +150, Lions -181 |
| Jets at 49ers (Monday) | 49ers -3.5 | 43.5 | Jets +164, 49ers -197 |
Notable movement, trends
Ravens at Chiefs (Thursday)
This line has moved past a key threshold. Kansas City initially opened as a 2.5-point favorite over Baltimore, but has now jumped up to a full field goal at Chiefs -3. Last year, Patrick Mahomes and Co. were in a similar spot, opening the year as the defending Super Bowl champions. They were a 6-point favorite over the Lions, failed to cover, and outright lost. Back in 2020, however, they did cover in the opener. Historically, it's wise to back the Super Bowl winner, albeit the last three champions have failed to cover Week 1. Dating back to 2000, the defending Super Bowl champion is 14-9-1 ATS. Last season, the Ravens were among the best road bets in the league, notching a 5-2 ATS record.
Packers at Eagles (Friday, in Sao Paulo, Brazil)
While the Green Bay Packers are getting a ton of preseason love, money does seem to be coming in on Philly for the opener in Brazil. The line initially opened at Eagles -1.5 and has since moved to Eagles -2.5. Neutral-site games are tough to gauge, particularly with two franchises that have strong fanbases willing to travel. Last season, the Packers were 11-8 ATS (including playoffs), while the Eagles were 7-9-2 ATS.
Texans at Colts
A little bit of movement on both the spread and total here. The spread jumped up a point from Texans -1.5 to Texans -2.5, and it'll be curious to see if that moves all the way to three before kickoff in this game. As for the total, it jumped up a point to 48.5. Houston was 10-9 ATS last season (including playoffs), while the Colts were 9-8 ATS. While C.J. Stroud did dazzle in Year 1, the Over had just a 7-11-1 record for Houston in 2023 (including playoffs). However, Indy's Over was one of the better bets of the season, hitting in 11 of their 17 games.
Jaguars at Dolphins
Momentum may be moving in Jacksonville's direction leading into this game. The Dolphins opened as a 3.5-point favorite, but have since lost the hook and are now a flat field goal favorite. Miami was 10-8 ATS (including playoffs) last season, while the Jaguars were 9-8.
Vikings at Giants
Minnesota has held as a 1-point road favorite over New York. Given the change at quarterback for the Vikings, it is hard to take much of what they did in 2023 and apply it to what could happen in 2024. That said, they were 7-7-3 ATS on the year, but a league-best 5-1-3 ATS (83.3% cover rate) on the road. Before you run to the ticket window to ride with Minnesota, it's worth pointing out that the Giants fared well as a home dog last season, owning a 5-2-1 ATS record in that spot.
Steelers at Falcons
The total in this matchup did move slightly up to 42.5 after opening at 41.5. Both of these teams will be starting new quarterbacks with Russell Wilson winning the job for Pittsburgh and the Falcons signing Kirk Cousins in free agency this offseason. Last season, the Steelers were 5-4 ATS on the road while the Falcons were 3-5 ATS at home.
Titans at Bears
The spread in this matchup has held at Bears -4.5, but the total is up to 45.5 after opening at 43.5. The key storyline in this game is the regular-season debut of No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams and his showing this preseason does give some optimism that could be driving this total up. Even with different quarterback play last season, Chicago was 4-2-2 ATS at home. Tennessee is looking to improve after a 2023 campaign that saw it go 2-6 ATS on the road.
Patriots at Bengals
Interestingly, the spread has recently moved in New England's direction. While the Bengals are still a big favorite in their home opener, the spread is now sitting at 8.5 after opening at Bengals -9. It's possible that the uncertain status of Cincinnati's star wideout Ja'Marr Chase could be what is moving this spread down a touch.
Cardinals at Bills
The spread in this game has moved down to Bills -6 after opening at Bills -6.5. Highmark Stadium is one of the toughest environments in the NFL, but Buffalo was only 5-5 ATS at home last season (including playoffs). Arizona, with a healthy Kyler Murray, is looking to improve from a 4-5 ATS road record in 2023.
Panthers at Saints
The Panthers seem to be getting some love from bettors as the spread in this NFC South matchup has moved down from Saints -4.5 at the open to Saints -4. Carolina was a league-worst 1-7-1 ATS on the road in 2023, but there is optimism that the franchise may be on course to get back on track with new head coach Dave Canales and a revamped roster around Bryce Young. As for the Saints, the Superdome wasn't exactly a brick house for them as they were 3-5 ATS at home.
Broncos at Seahawks
Seattle has now moved up to a 5.5-point favorite, up a half-point from the open. The Broncos will be starting rookie quarterback Bo Nix to begin the season and Sean Payton is looking to have better results from his team on the road, after they were 2-5-1 ATS in 2023. As for Seattle, it is officially entering the post-Pete Carroll era with head coach Mike Macdonald now running the show. The Seahawks were 3-4-1 ATS at home last season.
Raiders at Chargers
Points may not be abundant in this game as the total for this matchup between the Raiders and Chargers has dropped down to 41 after opening at 43.5. Last season, the Under was 12-5 in Chargers games and 11-6 in Raiders games.
Cowboys at Browns
Folks appear to be fading the Cowboys in this opener as the Browns are now a 2.5-point favorite after opening as a slim 1-point favorite. The total has also dropped from 45 to 42. The Browns were a league-best 8-1 ATS at home in 2023, while Dallas was 4-5 ATS on the road.
Commanders at Buccaneers
Tampa Bay has moved down to a 3.5-point favorite after the spread opened at Bucs -4. Washington is rolling out No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels as its starting quarterback, which could make the Commanders a live dog in this matchup, particularly after a 2023 season where they were 6-3 ATS on the road. The Buccaneers were 4-5 ATS at home.
Rams at Lions
There was no notable movement in this game, which is a rematch from last year's playoff showdown that saw the Lions edge out a one-point victory. Detroit was 6-4 ATS (including playoffs) at home in 2023, while Sean McVay's Rams were 6-3-1 ATS (including playoffs) on the road.
Jets at 49ers (Monday night)
One of the biggest swings in the spread on the Week 1 slate comes in this matchup between the Jets and 49ers. San Francisco initially opened at a 6-point favorite, but that has since fallen all the way to 3.5. It's worth noting that the Super Bowl losers have gone 4-19 ATS in their following Week 1 openers since 2000, so that trend -- coupled with the return of Aaron Rodgers to the Jets -- could be what is driving people to back New York with the points.
