NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can't really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.
With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I'll revisit these in August before the season begins, but we'll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I'm using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use, but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they're released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let's get to it.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Over 9.5 (-140) / Under 9.5 (+120)
This won't be a popular opinion, but there might be a little more reason to worry about the Texans than the general consensus out there. Let's start with Houston's 2023 season, which is primarily highlighted by a historic rookie performance out of C.J. Stroud. The Texans were one of the best stories of the season, but they also went 7-3 in one-score games and outperformed their point differential by almost a full game. This team had a losing record in November after falling to the Panthers (!).
Like the 2022 Jaguars, they got white hot down the stretch against some questionable teams and won the division before beating Joe Flacco in a playoff game. I think Stroud's incredible and DeMeco Ryans has serious staying power. They added Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter in the offseason and only really lost a few role players on defense.
I'm bullish on the Texans but not to the extent of the market: Stroud is 12-1 to win MVP and this is a really steep win total for a team that now draws a first-place schedule with the Chiefs, Cowboys and Ravens notably on the docket down the stretch. At his point in the offseason I'd lean toward the under with the plus money knowing the Texans could win nine games, the division and I'd still cash without laying any juice.
Lean: Under 9.5 (+120)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Over 8.5 (-110) / Under 8.5 (-110)
The hype train for the 2023 Jaguars got way out of control. Sheeple like Pete Prisco picked Jacksonville to make the Super Bowl and Trevor Lawrence to win MVP. What a world! The Jags got out to a 6-2 start and were 8-3 after beating the Texans in Week 12. They were a mortal lock to win the division ... until they weren't and melted down to a 9-8 finish that left them out of the postseason. The Jags went 3-5 in one-score games and were essentially even with their point differential. They lost Calvin Ridley this offseason, but got both Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. to help Lawrence stretch the field.
One of the huge differences between first and second from last year is found in the scheduling: the Jaguars draw the Raiders and Browns while the Texans get the Chiefs and Ravens this year. I don't love the Jaguars this year, but improvements on defense and a bounce-back season from Lawrence could equate to nine wins again fairly easily. It's a decent buy-low spot, but I wouldn't bet it yet either.
Lean: Over 8.5 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts
Over 8.5 (+105) / Under 8.5 (-125)
I'm definitely bullish on the Colts at this price. Anthony Richardson's health is going to be a talking point, as it should be. But Shane Steichen has gotten the most out of quarterbacks everywhere he goes and if Richardson stays on the field, this offense will be a problem, particularly with a healthy Jonathan Taylor, a fully paid Michael Pittman, a second-year Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell added to the wide receiver depth chart. Laiatu Latu gives them another big-time pass-rushing piece and Gus Bradley's 28th-ranked defense can't be much worse than it was last year. The third-place schedule means matchups against the Giants, Broncos and Steelers ... just the absolute best possible draw out of all three divisional matchups for the AFC South. The Colts outperformed their win expectancy by a full game and went 6-3 in one-score games last year, which is a concern for a possible fall back. But they did that with Gardner Minshew under center; obviously if Joe Flacco's got to start a bunch of games my opinion would change (maybe). There's a real chance for a hot start, plus a Week 14 buy and a really nice closing four-game stretch here. At plus money I'd be in on the over for sure.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+105)
Tennessee Titans
Over 6.5 (+110) / Under 6.5 (-135)
It's actually annoying this total isn't a little lower: The Titans could easily be a 5.5-win team instead of 6.5, although the plus money is intriguing with a new coaching staff. Brian Callahan brings a very nice offensive resume and, maybe more importantly, brings his father Bill Callahan, one of the best offensive line coaches in the history of the league. The run game with Tony Pollard added to Tyjae Spears could be better than people think. Treylon Burks was the top option for Tennessee two years ago, he's now Will Levis' fourth option behind Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins and Tyler Boyd. The wideout room is pretty strong suddenly. Defensively, there's enough going on where you can squint and see the Titans as competitive -- L'Jarius Sneed is a really nice add to the secondary, but the Titans will need the surprising T'Vondre Sweat pick to pay off quickly upfront. I'm nervous Mike Vrabel was squeezing the most out of this roster but am bullish on Callahan. A Week 5 bye is so tough and last-place result from last year resulted in matchups against Jim Harbaugh's Chargers, the Bengals (!) and Dan Quinn's Commanders. Just an unfortunate draw. I just wish the win total was lower. I'd take over 5.5 for sure if we got one.
Lean: Titans under 6.5 (-135)
