The Davante Adams saga is pretty wild. Here we have a borderline Hall of Fame wide receiver who asked to be traded out of Green Bay in order to facilitate joining his college buddy Derek Carr in Las Vegas. Then after Carr got let go, he realized he was stuck in a bad spot and once his coach liked an Instagram post suggesting he was going to be traded or could be traded or might want to be traded or whatever, Adams suddenly has an injured hamstring. And now, apparently, is actually getting traded.
Now by all accounts his hammy is actually hurt and teams who are trying to acquire him know that. But adding to the insanity is Adams only wanting to play for the Jets ... or the Saints. He really, really loves Derek Carr! And Rodgers obviously.
I think Adams is an awesome player. No question about it. But I do wonder if he necessarily puts either the Jets or the Saints over the top in their quest for a Super Bowl.
The Jets went out and got Mike Williams this offseason to be their No. 2 next to Garrett Wilson. Allen Lazard was already there as well, because he's friends with Rodgers. Adams is better than both guys, but there's already an issue in getting the ball to a star wide receiver (Wilson) in New York right now. Do we think Adams is separating so much at this stage of his career that defenses will simply be unable to focus on Wilson and he'll explode? Is the goal of an Adams trade to try and help Wilson? Or so Adams can light up defenses on his own? The Jets have more fundamental problems up front right now. They can't run the ball and Wilson hasn't been a major factor.
You could say something similar for the Saints as well. The already have Chris Olave! Adams would be a fun addition, I suppose, but with their offensive line injuries, there are other places they could improve their team first.
Adams is a worthy gamble at a cheap cost for a team struggling on offense and looking to make a playoff surge, no doubt about it. But just be careful what you expect to get out of him in 2024. This doesn't feel like Randy Moss to the Patriots necessarily.
Best bets
Garrett Wilson over 53.5 receiving yards
This isn't a "Revenge Game" per se, but it's still a spot for Wilson to flare up a little bit before Adams maybe, possibly, actually arrives. The Vikings are playing great football but will blitz like crazy, which should induce some one-on-one matchups. Wilson's been a bit of a squeaky wheel early on in the season, getting plenty of questions about his production amid Aaron Rodgers alleging defenses are focusing on Wilson. And then there's this: Justin Jefferson was asked earlier this season about matching up against the 49ers after they shut down Wilson the week before and quipped, "Respectfully, I'm not Garrett Wilson." Jefferson lived up to the burn, but you know Wilson's been thinking about the line for a few weeks now.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons over 43.5
I want to say Tampa is just the better team here and will be able to slow down the Falcons, but the injuries to the Bucs on the backend is going to give Kirk Cousins the ability to move the ball in the air. Likewise, I'm not entirely sure the Falcons slow down the Bucs, with Baker Mayfield playing some great football and really slinging the rock in Liam Cohen's offense. In-division, prime-time overs feel scary, but I'm not petrified of backing the Bucs to pile up points and if they do, then I think the Falcons are forced to throw as well and see see a bit of a shootout in this one on a Thursday night.
Browns vs. Commanders over 43.5
Not shocking this line is so low, considering the Browns aren't exactly a high-powered offense these days. But these two teams could really incite some sneaky scoring from each other in this game. Cleveland's been passing at an insanely high clip relative to the rest of the NFL, which is borderline shocking when you consider how bad Deshaun Watson has been this year. And if there ever was a game to get right for Watson, it's against this Commanders defense. They've been shredded by just about everyone this year, with Washington giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt and allowing the 25th most points per game this season (25.5). The Commanders are third in terms of scoring per game, however, and Jayden Daniels is really cooking his last two games. Cleveland hasn't scored at all this season but they're not really stopping people from scoring either, ranking just 17th in points allowed. I think it's extremely reasonable for this game to be higher scoring than Vegas suggests.
D.J. Moore over 53.5 receiving yards
Revenge is on the mind every week and how could it not be for Moore against his old team the Panthers. He certainly feels like he's in a better situation with Chicago than Carolina -- I would think right?? -- but the Panthers tossed him in a trade and sent him packing so they could draft Bryce Young, who is now on the bench. I'm guessing Moore would love to show the Panthers they made a mistake and will get the chance in what should be a fairly high-scoring game. i like his receptions over at 4.5 as well and don't mind laddering his receiving yards ... if you think the Panthers can keep up by scoring against the Bears defense. Because they won't be stopping anyone, probably for the rest of the year. Carolina's defense is ravaged with injury right now and Moore should be able to get what he wants here, as long as Shane Waldron doesn't cap his movement within the Bears formation.
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has an A-graded pick in this matchup. Check it out here.
Stefon Diggs over 53.5 receiving yards
MORE REVENGE. Diggs has looked pretty sharp in this Texans offense, but he's far from the alpha. Nico Collins is that guy catching passes from C.J. Stroud and will continue to be. Which means the Bills, who traded away Diggs this offseason to the Texans, actually have to focus on a different receiver while a very revenge-minded receiver gets to focus on lighting up the team that's been not-so-subtly throwing shade at him since he left. Comments from various members of the offense made it clear Buffalo likes its setup now more than it did when it felt the need to forcefeed Diggs. The Texans have shown a willingness to feed into Diggs this season, getting him heavily involved in Week 1 (let the world know he's not toast!) and when he got 12 targets against another old team of his in the Vikings. He's not going to jailbreak anything big -- and I'd be interested in his anytime TD number at +150 as well -- but he should see at six targets minimum, catch almost all of them and cruise over this number.
D'Andre Swift over 49.5 rush yards
The Panthers last two weeks have given the fanbase some relief when it comes to the offense looking mildly functional with Andy Dalton under center. Carolina's been able to move the ball pretty well and has scored actual touchdowns. That's exciting news. Less exciting is the performance by the defense. The Panthers gave up six yards per play to the Bengals last week and 5.6 YPP to the Raiders in the dominant Week 3 win. Everyone is hurt for Carolina and they simply can't stop opposing teams from moving the ball. Zach Moss ran with ease against the Carolina front and I expect more of the same from Chicago on offense. Because D'Andre Swift was relegated to also-ran status before Week 4's breakout performance, his prop numbers are still down, but he got 16 carries in Chicago's win, looked good running the ball and now just needs to clear 50 rushing yards against a sieve of a defense. I don't think Carolina will get some massive lead and force Caleb Williams into throwing the ball. If that's a concern, it's fine to wait for a rushing/receiving yards prop to pop open -- Swift caught all seven of his targets last week en route to a 100+ yard day.
