Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
If you love apples and America, then tonight's your night, because "America's Team" will be heading to the Big Apple -- actually the Garden State, but that would ruin my intro -- with the Cowboys facing the Giants on "Thursday Night Football." Although the Cowboys have played dozens of Thursday games in franchise history, tonight's matchup will mark the first time ever that Dallas has been forced to play a Thursday night road game on just three days' rest.
The Cowboys are currently favored by 5.5 points, which is good news for Dallas, because it has NOT been a good year for teams that are favored by six points or more. In today's newsletter, we'll be taking a look at just how well underdogs have been doing, plus we'll be previewing tonight's game and we'll be making predictions on when each of the undefeated teams will lose their first game.
As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter or you can tell people you run into at the bank. That also works. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown.
1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Cowboys at Giants
The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) are currently in a rut. They've lost two straight games and if they lose again tonight, Mike McCarthy's seat is going to go from hot to on fire. The good news for the Cowboys is that they get to face a team that they've beaten six straight times: The New York Giants (1-2). They also get to face a quarterback in Daniel Jones who has a career record of 1-13 in primetime games.
With both teams sitting at 1-2, this a huge NFC East showdown that neither team can afford to lose.
Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight:
- Why the Cowboys can win: Dak Prescott always seems to play well against the Giants -- he has a 12-2 career record against them -- and it won't be surprising if that success continues tonight. The Giants are dealing with multiple injuries in their secondary (slot corner Dru Phillips and veteran corner Adoree' Jackson have already been ruled out) so Prescott will be going up against a depleted defense. Prescott will likely have a lot of confidence going into tonight and if the Cowboys' offense can turn this game into a shootout, it's hard to see the Giants keeping up, considering they're only averaging 15 points per game this season.
- Why the Giants can win: The Giants might want to consider running the single-wing tonight because they're facing a Cowboys team that can't stop the run. Through three weeks, the Cowboys are surrendering an average of 185.7 yards per game on the ground. The Giants should plan to run the ball until the Cowboys actually prove they can stop them. If Devin Singletary gets going, that could put the Giants in a position to pull off an upset.
You can get a full preview of the game from Garrett Podell by clicking here.
If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props.
- ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Dak Prescott OVER 255.5 passing yards (-115): Dak threw for 379 yards last week and that was after throwing for 293 yards in Week 2. Now, he gets to face a Giants team that he's beaten 12 straight times (The Cowboys have only beaten the Giants six straight times, but Prescott was on IR the last time Dallas lost to New York, so his personal streak is at 12). Dak seems to love playing the Giants and if you combine that with the fact that the Cowboys don't really have a running game and that the Giants secondary is beaten up right now, it seems like a recipe for Dak to have a big game.
- ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Brandon Aubrey OVER 7.5 points (-120): Aubrey has become the ultimate kicking weapon in the NFL and the Cowboys aren't afraid to use him. Mike McCarthy will let him kick from almost anywhere on the field -- he's already got a 65-yarder under his belt this year -- and because of that, the points should pile up tonight. Aubrey is averaging 11.7 points per game this season, which makes be feel really good about this bet.
And in case you're wondering, through the first three weeks of the season, my props are 9-6 (4-3 on kicker props and 5-3 on all other props).
We also have a full betting preview from SportsLine that you can check out here.
And finally, here are our picks for a game.
PICKS FOR 'TNF'
Podell's pick: Cowboys 31-16 over Giants
Prisco's pick: Cowboys 27-19
My pick: Cowboys 27-20 over Giants
Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here.
2. Why the 2024 NFL season is turning into the year of the underdog
If you love cheering for underdogs, then the 2024 NFL season might go down as your favorite season ever and that's mainly because underdogs are winning at an absurd rate.
Actually, it's the big underdogs that are winning at an absurd rate. Let's take a look at the numbers (via CBS Sports Research).
There have been four games this season where a team was an underdog of at least a touchdown and in those four games, the underdog has gone 4-0.
Week 1: Patriots (+7.5) 16-10 over Bengals
Week 2: Raiders (+9) 26-23 over Ravens
Week 2: Buccaneers (+7.5) 20-16 over Lions
Week 3: Commanders (+7.5) 38-33 over Bengals
This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that underdogs of at least seven points have had a winning record through three weeks, let alone being undefeated. Also, the biggest underdog in each week has won their game outright with the Patriots (Week 1), Raiders (Week 2) and Commanders (Week 3) all winning. For that streak to stay alive, the Patriots will have to beat the 49ers as a 10-point underdog in Week 4.
Underdogs of six points or more have also been thriving. There have been 13 games this season where a team has been an underdog of six points or more. In those 13 games, the underdog has gone 12-1 against the spread and 8-5 straight-up. There are a total of four teams that will be an underdog of six points or more in Week 4 and there could be five teams if the Giants close as a six-point underdog against the Cowboys tonight.
Basically, the 2024 NFL season has been unpredictable, which might explain why my picks have been so bad this year. I've been taking all the wrong underdogs. I need to start thinking outside the box.
3. Predicting when the undefeated teams will lose their first game
Through three weeks, there are five teams that are still undefeated, but there's a good chance they won't make it through the entire season undefeated, which means they're going to lose at some point.
With that in mind, Cody Benjamin tried to pinpoint when each 3-0 teams will suffer its first loss.
- Bills. "The Bills narrowly survive the Baltimore Ravens in a thrilling Week 4 matchup to improve to 4-0, but fall to C.J. Stroud and the Texans in Week 5."
- Steelers. "The Steelers endure a slugfest against the Indianapolis Colts (Week 4), forcing Anthony Richardson into multiple turnovers, to improve to 4-0, but can't quite keep up with the Dallas Cowboys' firepower in Week 5."
- Chiefs. "The Chiefs beat the Chargers (Week 5) and Saints (Week 6), then edge the 49ers (Week 8) following the bye, improving to 7-0 before an upset loss to Todd Bowles' defense and the Buccaneers in Week 9."
- Vikings. "The Vikings witness Jordan Love's return to Lambeau Field in Week 4, where the physicality of Josh Jacobs and rangy defense led by Xavier McKinney finally result in Minnesota's first loss of the season."
- Seahawks. "The Seahawks take the Detroit Lions to the wire in Week 4's "Monday Night Football" matchup, but ultimately suffer their first defeat of Macdonald's rookie season atop the staff."
If Cody's right, that means the final undefeated team will go down in Week 9 when the Chiefs lose to Tampa Bay. If you want to check out Cody's full story, you can do that here.
4. Ranking the playoff chances for every team that currently has a losing record
Just because you have a losing record after three weeks doesn't mean you can't make the playoffs. Last season, there were two teams (Rams, Texans) that rebounded to make the playoffs after finishing the first three weeks of the season with a losing record.
So who could be this year's Rams or this year's Texans? Glad you asked. Bryan DeArdo ranked each team that currently has a losing record based on its chances of making the postseason.
Let's check out the top 10 teams on his list:
1. Ravens (1-2)
2. 49ers (1-2)
3. Cowboys (1-2)
4. Falcons (1-2)
5. Bengals (0-3)
6. Cardinals (1-2)
7. Colts (1-2)
8. Browns (1-2)
9. Rams (1-2)
10. Bears (1-2)
There are a total of 18 teams that currently have a losing record and if you want to see DeArdo's full breakdown of every team, you can do that here
5. Bill Belichick landing spots: Five teams that make sense for the six-time Super Bowl winner
Bill Belichick isn't coaching in the NFL this year, but by all accounts, he is hoping to return to the sideline in 2025 if a job comes open that he wants and if the owner of that team with the open job is willing to hire him.
Belichick is going to want to end up somewhere where he has a chance to win a Super Bowl, so Will Brinson decided to come up with a few landing spots for the former Patriots coach.
Let's take a look at his list:
- Cowboys. "If you see any betting odds, the Cowboys will probably be the "favorite." I can see it happening, mostly because Bill Parcells took the job back in 2003 and spent four years working with Jerry Jones, making the playoffs twice despite having Quincy Carter, Vinny Testaverde and Drew Bledsoe as his quarterbacks for three of four years. ... Mike McCarthy is already sitting on a furnace. If he loses on Thursday night to Danny Dimes and the Giants he's basically a human version of the 'This Is Fine' meme."
- Jaguars. "Sitting at 0-3 after a beatdown on Monday night in Buffalo, the Jaguars are back in crisis mode. Trevor Lawrence looks like a league-average quarterback, despite signing a massive deal this offseason. Doug Pederson's postgame press conferences aren't exactly inspiring. ... The Jaguars results don't match up with Shahid Khan's ownership style. He delegates to football people and is patient. Belichick would have the personnel control he wants, a potential franchise quarterback with plenty of untapped potential and he would maximize the defensive talent. In a division that isn't taking a leap the way we thought, this could work really well."
- Bengals. "SUPER long shot primarily because the ownership group in Cincy is hesitant to move on from coaches. Zac Taylor was in college when his predecessor Marvin Lewis was hired in Cincy. They've had six coaches since 1984. That's a weekend for David Tepper. But they're 0-3 and have an elite, franchise quarterback. ... There's a hefty investment in this team with Burrow and another disappointing season might elevate the pressure on Taylor, particularly if the offense flops after losing his offensive coordinator."
Brinson's list includes a total of five teams and if you want to see who else made the cut, you can do that here.
6. Extra points: Could Christian McCaffrey miss the entire season?
It's been a busy week in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
- Kyle Shanahan gives vague answer to McCaffrey question. During his press conference on Wednesday, the 49ers coach was asked if Christian McCaffrey might end up missing the entire season and he gave an interesting five-word answer, "Not that I know of," Shanahan said. He could have simply said no, but instead, he offered that answer, which tells you that the 49ers might not know right now whether McCaffrey will have to miss the entire season. The running back is in Germany and if you have to go to a foreign country to get work done on your injury, that's usually not a great sign.
- Broncos linebacker played nearly entire game with torn ACL. This might go down as the wildest injury story of the year. Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton TORE HIS ACL during the first quarter of Denver's win over Tampa Bay on Sunday and the crazy part is that not only did he finish the game, but he LED THE TEAM IN TACKLES. You can read more about his wild effort here.
- Chiefs move Kareem Hunt to active roster. Nearly six years after taking his last snap with the Chiefs, Hunt will be returning this week. The running back was promoted from the practice squad to the active roster and he's expected to see some action on Sunday against the Chargers. We took a look at how he might factor into Kansas City's running game and you can see that here.
- Robert Kraft buys $120,000 Tom Brady card. The Patriots owner spent a huge chunk of money this week when he decided to pay $120,000 at auction for an autographed Tom Brady rookie card. We knew Kraft was a huge fan of his former quarterback, and now, we know just how big.
